Date: July 17, 2023
Cattle futures ended last week sharply higher locking in week over week gains while lean hogs closed with small losses and still held weekly gains. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was very light as of Friday afternoon. Trade in the South steady to $2 higher at $180 live and steady to $1 higher in North at $186 live and $291 dressed.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…August Live Cattle +$3.17, October +$3.25, August Feeders +$1.22, September +$.62, July Lean Hogs +$2.97, August +$1.05. Choice Boxed Beef -$10.96 at $305.94 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$7.61 at $115.55.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/9/2023 – 7/15/2023
Receipts: Current Week 26,564 Last Week 23,291 Last Year 40,529
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 4.00-10.00 higher. Demand very good for feeder cattle. Steer calves 20.00 higher, 400- 500 lbs. 3.00 higher. Heifer calves 6.00-10.00 higher. Demand improved for calves. Recent rains greatly improved pasture conditions. Some areas receiving as much as 10 inches.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 633,000 head, up 94,000 from the week previous but down 40,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 511.6 million pounds with year to date -4.7% vs. last year and slaughter -3.6%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,340,000 head, up 386,000 compared to the week previous and up 85,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 492.4 million pounds last week with year to date +0.3% vs. last year and slaughter +1.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values last Friday lower on good demand with 136 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.97 @ 305.94, Select Cutout -3.57 @ 276.61
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 239.45, Lean Hog Index @ 101.03
Pork Carcass Cutout from Friday +4.65 @ 115.55
August live cattle hit a new contract high last week at $181.17 with the next upside target the all-time spot high from June at $182.87 and support at $175.20 then $173.42. August feeders up to a new contract and all-time spot high last week at $251.30 with nearby support at $243.50 then $240.80. August lean hogs now the front month with support at $93.87, the recent high at $100.75 and then strong resistance beginning around $105.
Grains were mixed on Friday and higher week over week. Volatile trading continues with U.S. weather the driving factor. More rain forecasted across NE and KS heading into the weekend, but strong winds and hail also expected. Light and scattered rains are in the nearby forecast but only for isolated areas of the ECB. USDA updated supply and demand midweek with higher ending stocks than expected, pushing corn into new recent lows. Russia has still not agreed to continue to safe shipping deal in the Black Sea with the current deal set to expire on Monday, this helped push grains higher on Friday as well.
Weekly closes in the grains… September Corn +$.19 ¼, December +$.19 ¼, August Soybeans +$.52 ½, November +$.53, September KC Wheat +$.10 ¾, December +$.14, September Chicago Wheat +$.12, December +$.14 ¼, September MPLS Wheat +$.36 ½, December +$.35, August Soybean Meal +$21.0/T, December +$14.7/T.
The CFTC Commitment of Trader’s report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 7/11 selling 44.8k corn contracts (net short -63.0k), selling 6.3k soybeans (net long 82.7k), buying 1.8k Chicago Wheat (net short -52.1k), buying 825 KC Wheat (net long 14.5k).
Corn and wheat gapping higher last night as Russia has officially announced they will no longer participate in the Black Sea safe shipping deal. Wheat continued to lead the way higher finishing 12 to 18 higher overnight while corn backed off from the highs finishing 4 higher. Soybeans finished the overnight 11 to 13 higher and still look the best on the charts, now back within just a few cents of testing the recent highs from two weeks ago. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ steady and energies lower with crude oil off $1/barrel. Export inspections will be out later this morning and then updated crop progress and conditions later this afternoon as most expect to see small improvements again in the fall crop conditions.
This week’s rains look to very light and scattered for most major growing areas. There are a couple pockets of 1-2” in the forecast for portions of eastern CO and western KS and for the southern half of the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. with below normal across the Midwest/ECB with above normal moisture for the Sothern Plains and Southeast and below normal in the Northwest and ECB.
September corn down to a new recent low last week at $4.74 and now making new highs for month overnight at $5.19 ¾ with resistance at $5.32. December corn looks similar with a new recent low last week at $4.81, new high for month at $5.26 ½ last night and resistance up at $5.37 ½. August soybeans testing resistance again around the $15 level with the next at $15.18 ½ and support at $14.64 then $14.25. November soybeans within three cents of July 3rd recent high, resistance still holding around the $14 level and support at $13.25. September KC wheat still very choppy, back above the midpoint of the 7-month long trading range from $7.33 to $9.02. September Chicago wheat gapping higher overnight with resistance at $7.06 and support at $6.22. September MPLS wheat trying yet again to take out the long term lower trend with a new recent high overnight at $8.99, resistance next at $9.10 ½ and support at $8.43. August soybean meal very volatile this past month, testing trendline resistance again with price resistance next from $433 to $438.90 and support at $400.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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