Date: March 24th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed during trading yesterday but mostly higher as cattle futures held small to moderate gains and lean hogs triple digits higher hitting new contract highs yet again. Cash feedlot trade very light at steady money, $114 live. Last week’s complete recap of cash feedlot trade resulted in a weighted average actually a $1 higher than the week previous at $114.23 live and $2 higher for dressed trade at $181.49. Packers did have to raise bids late in the week to finish off their buying needs. Supplies are significantly more manageable now and weights have come down the past couple weeks which are both supportive. Slaughter levels are lower though and beef prices back to trending higher.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/22/2021
Total Receipts: 10,199 Last Reported 3/15/21: 8,901 Last Year: 1,310
Compared to last week: Feeder cattle and calves steady. Demand moderate to good. Several large strings of cattle coming off wheat on offer.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/16/2021
Total Receipts: 5,898 Last Reported 3/15/21: 5,452 Last Year: 1,795
Compared to last week, feeder steers under 600 lbs. traded steady, over 600 lbs. traded 2.00 – 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded up to 4.00 higher. Supply and demand was moderate.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/23/2021
Total Receipts: 2,712 Last Reported 3/16/21: 3,208 Last Year: 805
Compared to last week, steer calves under 600 lbs. traded unevenly steady while heavier weight steers traded 3.00-4.00 higher. Heifer calves traded steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was good, especially on turnout calves.
Philip Livestock Auction – Philip, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/23/2021
Total Receipts: 2,330 Last Reported 3/9/21: 2,221 Last Year: 1,752
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder Steers under 550 8.00 higher, 550 to 650 5.00 higher, 650 to 750 Steady to 2.00 higher, Feeder Heifers 500 to 550 Steady to 3.00 higher, 550 to 700 Steady, 700 to 750 2.00 higher. Good Demand for several strings, load lots, and packages of Feeder Steers and Feeder Heifers which sold on an Active Market. Much of the Offering carried Light to Moderate Flesh with just a few instances of cattle with some tag and fill.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 117,000 head, down 4,000 from last week and down 8,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 476,000, down 17,000 compared to a week ago and down 23,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday sharply higher on good demand with 143 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__233.99 +3.04
Select Cutout__225.23 +2.18
CME Feeder Cattle Index__134.26 +.23
CME Lean Hog Index__93.47 +.76
Pork Carcass Cutout__105.78 +2.52
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__93.56 +.41
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__91.47 +1.20
April live cattle flat since the first of the month trading in roughly a $3 window with support still holding at $118 and resistance at $120.90. March feeders expire tomorrow. April has traded from $134 to $147 since early November with a tighter range from $140 to $146 since late January. Deferred contracts till holding a higher trend. April lean hogs continuing the sharply higher trend with another new contract high yesterday at $96.62 and support around $85. We have now taken out the nearby highs from 2019 & 2017 with the next up around $110 from the fall of 2014.
Grains traded in positive territory most of yesterday, finishing with small gains. Not much new news out yesterday as old crop corn and soybeans continue their sideways trading heading into next week’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Report from USDA. Old crop supplies are tight and the markets are awaiting that demand confirmation from the stocks report next week before seeing if another price rally is needed to ration demand. Wheat futures held small gains yesterday as well but still holding a lower trend for nearly a month as U.S. conditions have improved and world values continue to sink.
Grains fairly quiet and mixed overnight trading inside yesterday’s range with corn finishing steady to 1 lower, soybeans 2 to 5 higher and wheat 4 to 6 lower. Crude fell off $4 yesterday but back up $1 early this morning as a container ship is stuck after running aground in the Suez Canal. There are reportedly over 100 ships now waiting to get through.
South Korea purchased a couple cargoes of optional origin feed wheat overnight. Soybean Oil has been racing higher along with all other edible oils due to high demand throughout the world for food and biodiesel needs. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, is now estimating stocks for 2021 be nearly cut in half form last year to the high demand.
Light to 2” rains over the past 24 hours from KS up into the Great Lakes with heavy rains along the Gulf Coast States. Heavy rain in the forecast in the Southeast through the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook mostly showing normal temps with above normal now only in small pockets in the Southwest, Northern Corn Belt and Florida and above normal precip in a band from TX to the Great Lakes with below normal over most of the Western half of the U.S.
May corn holding nearby support at $5.45 with the next down at $5.30 and resistance at $5.60. May soybeans still holding long term higher trend, tested support at $13.90 last week, resistance at $14.35 and the contract high from earlier this month at $14.60. May KC wheat holding a lower trend over this past month with support next around $5.60 and resistance at $6.09. May Chicago wheat also lower this past month but still holding the long term higher trend going back to this past summer. Nearby support at $6.20 being tested this week and resistance at $6.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700