Date: June 30th, 2021
Mixed trade for livestock futures but mostly higher settlements. Some light and regional cash feedlot trade started on Monday in NE at $126.50 live and in KS at $122 live, both steady with last week. Dressed sales in IA from $197 to $203, steady as well. TX cash pool reported on Tuesday 989 head trading at 121.25, -.75 from last week.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/29/2021
This Week: 2,086 Last Week: 2,582 Last Year: 1,885
Compared to last week, steers sold steady to 3.00 higher and a few calves under 450 lbs traded with a higher undertone to light comparisons last week. Heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher with the gain on the yearlings. Demand was good. Supply was moderate with several loads of yearling steers and heifers offered. Slaughter cows sold steady to 1.00 lower, bulls 2.00 higher.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/29/2021
This Week: 3,529 Last Week: 5,009 Last Year: 3,002
Compared to last week, steer calves under 700 lbs. traded 4.00-8.00 higher with heavier weights trading steady to 4.00 lower. Heifer calves under 650 lbs. traded 3.00-6.00 higher with heavier weights trading steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply. Yearling receipts were lacking in both volume and quality when compared to last week’s outstanding offering.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and matching last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 461,000 head, down 14,000 compared to last week and down 11,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continued sharply lower on strong demand with 157 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__292.34 -5.09, down the last 14 consecutive trading days and down almost $48 since the highs earlier this month
Select Cutout__270.40 -3.56, down 12 of the last 13 days, and almost $43 since the highs
CME Feeder Cattle Index__146.72 +.54
CME Lean Hog Index__113.00 -1.19
Pork Carcass Cutout__114.22 -.91
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__Price not available due to confidentiality
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__110.63 -1.90
June live cattle expire today. August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend with the contract high on June 16th at $125.77 and support around $120. August feeders also holding a higher trend with nearby resistance around $160, the contract high at $162.40 and support around $154. July lean hogs gapping higher yesterday with support at $100 and resistance at $109.60 then at $112.
Grains were a little bit quieter on Tuesday compared to the sharply higher Monday trade. July corn ran higher throughout the day as we enter first notice day and ahead of the USDA reports. MPLS wheat reversed course during the trading session as it was supported by deteriorating crop conditions but very overbought and extended forecasts actually added some much needed moisture for the Northern Plains. Brazil hit with frost and hard freeze in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul two nights in row which some are leaning to a 2 to 3 MMT corn production loss. It is estimated that up to 75% of the corn crop in Parana is vulnerable to freeze due to the later planting dates. This would be equivalent to an August frost in the Midwest.
Grains lower overnight with corn finishing 10 to 13 lower, soybeans 7 to 9 lower and wheat 4 to 10 lower.
Taiwan purchased a cargo of South American corn overnight and South Korean flour mills bought 77,000 MT or 2.8 MBU of U.S. milling quality wheat.
USDA will update acreage at 11 am today with all looking for additional acres than their March Intentions report. The average trade estimate for corn planted acres is at 93.8 million acres compared to the USDA’s 91.14 back in March. Soybean planted acres seen at 88.95 compared to 87.6 and all wheat acres at 45.94 down from 46.36 in March. Quarterly stocks are expected to be the lowest in the past 6-7 years for corn, soybeans and wheat. It is also of course end of the month and the quarter with first notice day for the front month July contracts trading without a daily limit.
Excessive heat continues in the PNW and Northern Plains through July 5th with heavy rains in the Southeast, a portion of the Southern Plains and ECB. Flooding occurring in the northern half of MO across central IL with more rains expected from Eastern KS to PA today then shifting south from OK to WV tomorrow. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps from the Southern Plains to the East Coast and above normal temps from the West Coast to the Great Lakes covering parts of the WCB and now into the northern half of the ECB with above normal precip in the South and East and below normal in the North and West.
July grain contracts now in delivery, no daily trading limits on the front months, volume getting thinner and will expire in a couple weeks. September corn has resistance at $5.83 and support at $5.28. December corn with nearby resistance around $5.65 and support at $5.14. August soybeans with resistance at $14.00 and support around $13.00. November soybeans with resistance around $13.40 and support around at $12.60. September KC wheat with resistance at $6.50 and support at $6.05. September Chicago wheat holding a lower trend over the past two months with nearby resistance at $6.75 and support at $6.37. September MPLS wheat the breakout leader higher with a new contract high yesterday at $8.57 and support at $7.85.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700