Date: July 31st, 2019
Livestock futures were under pressure most of yesterday led again by triple digit lower hogs. Lean hog futures topped out mid last week and since have lost over $5 on the nearby August contract and $8 on the heaviest volume October contract. Feeders were able to hold small gains with corn lower while fats were off a bit as fresh buying has stalled here the past few trading sessions. Cash feedlot trade in Nebraska and Western Corn Belt reported so far this week at $183 to $185 dressed, steady with last week. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 475 head consigned compared to 378 head last week of which none sold.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/29/2019
Total Receipts: 6,988 Last Week: 6,039 Last Year: 5,693
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly 2.00-7.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves too lightly tested for an accurate trend. Demand good. Quality mostly average with several attractive lots on offer. Active bidding with out of state buyers sending cattle to Northern areas with ample grazing. Trading area drying up and causing producers to make a marketing decision sooner than they’d like.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/29/2019
Total Receipts: 2,019 Last Week: 1,625 Last Year: 2,153
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-5.00 higher. Heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Quality very good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/29/2019
Total Receipts: 4,985 Last Week: 3,735 Last Year: 5,856
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher. Most weights and classes traded within a dollar or two of last week’s ranges throughout the day with the market improving as the sale went on. Demand was good for all weights and at times very good for long time weaned yearlings, including a string of 139 head of 1075 lb steers bringing just over $1350/head. Most of the cattle on offer were in good green condition. Supply moderate.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 117,000 head, down 5,000 compared to last week and down 3,000 compared to last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 470,000 head, down 5,000 compared to a week ago but up 20,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 127 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__214.03 +.77
Select Cutout__191.13 +1.37
CME Feeder Index__142.08 +.58
CME Lean Hog Index__82.10 +1.74
Pork Carcass Cutout__87.09 +3.05
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__60.98 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__84.24 -1.82
National Wtd Avg Live Price__59.60 -2.23, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__82.54 +.64
August live cattle into a new recent high at $109.60 on Monday, just above the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, but since has reversed lower. It is still holding a higher trend since the late June contract low at $101.97 with the next resistance level up at $110 and support at $107. August feeders into a new recent high at $143.90 with resistance next up at $146 and support at $139. August lean hogs on higher trend since the recent low at $73.95 back on June 24th with resistance up at $87.50 then near $89 and support at $82.
Over in the grains, the soy complex led the way lower even though it was corn that showed the 1% crop condition improvement Monday afternoon. President Trump hitting the social media waves again yesterday morning pointing out that so far there are no signs of China buying U.S. agriculture products as promised and if they want to wait until after the 2020 election, they would either get a tougher deal or no deal at all. This provided the day’s pressure on the grains which pushed December Corn a tick below the $4.20 mark and August Soybean Meal below the $300 level for the first time in over 2 months. The updated 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks calling for below normal temps and above normal moisture which is not the perfect scenario with crops still needing some heat to finish but better than smoking hot and dry with many areas across the Midwest and Corn Belt in need of some light rains. Right now central IL and the Southern Plains are suffering the most.
Overnight, corn held yesterday’s lows until this morning as it broke through for a new 2-month low down to $4.17. Corn finished 3 lower, soybeans 4 to 5 lower and wheat 2 to 4 lower.
This August USDA crop report slated to be released Monday, August 12th is by far the most hyped August crop report I can remember. Coming into this year, it looked as though it had lost some luster with USDA taking away their objective yield estimates for the August reports. There has not been a spring like this past one though where we are still talking acreage into August, let alone such wide estimates on yield potential from crops so variable and behind. USDA will be resurveying producers on planted acreage as well as using updated FSA prevent plant data for this report. Thanks to Kansas Farm Bureau I will have the opportunity to sit in on the report briefing by USDA in D.C. that Monday morning. Sorry everyone, no data will be spilled early though as it is very tight lockup procedure as even cell phones are collected ahead of entering the room and once you are in, you are not allowed back out until after the public release.
USDA announced a private sale of 140,500 MT or 5.2 MBU of soybeans sold for delivery to unknown destinations with 500 MT old crop and 140,000 MT new crop. The Philippines purchased 165,000 MT or 6.1 MBU of optional origin feed wheat overnight. Private estimates of French wheat production coming out above expectations and stating that the heat wave experience this summer had little to no impact on the crop quantity or quality. One yield estimate is as high as 7.77 MT/HA or 115.5 BPA and just below their record in 2015.
Heavy rains expected from SE NE down to AR heading into the weekend with little to no rain from eastern MO through IL and into IN expected over this next week. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal temps west and south with below normal for the Northern Plains down into the Southeast. Normal to above normal moisture still present for most of the country.
September corn down into a new recent low at $4.07 ½ overnight, $4.06 so far this morning, with support next at $3.96 and resistance up at $4.30. The December contract again into a new recent low at $4.17 overnight and $4.15 ¼ so far this morning with support next down near $4.05 with resistance up at $4.36. August soybeans with support at $8.70 and resistance up at $9.18 as the chart shows a coiling or price consolidation during the month of July, lower highs with higher lows. The November contract looks similar with support being tested around $8.90 and resistance up at $9.05 then at $9.36. September KC holding a lower trend with support being tested from $4.30 to $4.26 ½ and resistance up around $4.50. September Chicago on a lower trend this month with support at $4.87 and resistance up near $5.07. August Soybean Meal into a new 2-month low with support next at $295 and resistance up at $305.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
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