Date: June 8th, 2021
Cattle futures came back from a sharply lower open as lean hog futures continue to rally. June lean hogs hit a new contract high last Friday which held through yesterday’s trade but the highest volume July contract hit a new contract high yesterday. Cash feedlot trade quiet so far this week as we get back to normal slaughter levels and a full week of processing. Volume should be heavier this week and pretty easy to call the market steady until proven different as the past 6 weeks have been flat even with such a volatile futures market.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 06/05/2021
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 106,800 52,200 18,300 177,300
Last Week: 150,800 33,200 10,500 194,500
Year Ago: 207,100 87,400 10,700 305,200
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher on this holiday shortened week. There were several markets that were closed this week due to the Memorial Day holiday and they took time to give their employees a much needed rest as the weather is starting to finally move towards summer temps. Demand was reported as good to very good for both calves and yearlings at auctions that did hold sales this week.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/7/2021
This Week: 8,996 Last Report 5/24/21: 5,878 Last Year: 6,721
Compared to the last sale, ( 2 weeks ago), Feeder steers traded steady to 3.00 higher, while feeder heifers traded steady to 3.00 lower. Supply heavy with good demand.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/7/2021
This Week: 11,000 Last Report 5/24/21: 8,471 Last Year: 10,310
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers and heifers 3.00 – 5.00 higher. Steer calves 3.00 – 5.00 lower. Heifer calves 2.00 – 4.00 higher. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/7/2021
This Week: 2,968 Last Report 5/24/21: 1,630 Last Year: 2,377
Compared to 2 weeks ago. Steers mostly steady to 4.00 higher. Heifers 3.00-6.00 lower. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 9.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 119,000 head, up from last Monday’s 2,000 head due to Memorial Day and up 7,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 483,000 head, also up from last Monday’s 2,000 head due to Memorial Day and up 38,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values Monday lower on moderate demand with 98 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__338.60 -.38
Select Cutout__309.17 -2.56
CME Feeder Cattle Index__141.07 +3.57
CME Lean Hog Index__116.50 +1.75
Pork Carcass Cutout__134.73 +1.44
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__114.80 +.03
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__110.41 +1.01
June live cattle choppy sideways trading the past few weeks, expect for the sharp collapse and immediate rebound last week, with resistance holding at $118 and support at $116 then $114.70. August feeders choppy as well with a nearby lower trend, resistance at $153 and support down at $145. June lean hogs expire next Monday and volume getting thin with a new contract high at $120.15 last Friday and support around $114. The July contract again the highest volume trading now with support at $118.50, a new contract high yesterday at $123.60 and the next upside target at $133.87, the all-time spot high from July 2014.
All grains gapped higher to start the week but MPLS wheat flipped lower pulling the other wheat markets with them and trimming gains for both corn and soybeans. Weather the main driver with hot and dry forecasts signaling the market to add some weather premium. The midday run added some much need moisture chances for the Dakotas and MN which caused the massive $.65 range in MPLS wheat and soybean markets yesterday along with a $.30+ range in corn futures.
Grains inspected for the week ending June 3rd were a bit disappointing. Corn inspections at 55.6 MBU still strong and above the weekly average needed. China again the #1 destination taking 21.4 MBU followed by Japan, Mexico and South Korea. China now as 332.6 MBU of outstanding corn sales which at their current pace can still be cleaned up before this marketing year. The 2021/22 wheat marketing year officially began June 1 so 10.6 MBU were inspected as old crop and 4.7 MBU inspected as new crop. Wheat inspections need to average 17.6 MBU this current marketing year to meet the USDA export estimate of 900 MBU. In regards to old crop, inspections plus the Census adjusted through March is still roughly 10 MBU short of the USDA estimate. Soybean inspections totaled 8.7 MBU. Grain sorghum only 8,504 BU but USDA did adjust last week’s inspections by adding 2.9 MBU to China.
USDA’s Crop Progress was released after the close and friendly as conditions worse than expected. Corn emergence +9% to 90%. Corn G/E conditions down 4% to 72% with expectations of 74%. IL -6%, IN -1%, IA -4%, MN -7%, NE -4%, ND -6% and SD -21%. Soybeans planted again a little under the trade estimate at 92%, gaining 6% from last week, and compared to 84% last year and 79% 5-year average. Soybeans emerged now at 76%. Soybean conditions out for the first time nationally at 67% rated G/E, expectations at 70%, compared to last year’s 72%. Grain sorghum planted increased by 11% nationally to 52% compared to 62% last year and 59% average. Spring wheat emergence up to 90%. Spring wheat conditions worse though with G/E dropping 5 points to 38% and P/VP up 5 points to 25%. This compares to 82% G/E and 1% P/VP last year. Winter wheat harvest reported nationally for the first time at 2% compared to 6% last year and 7% 5-year average.
All grains steady to mostly higher overnight with support from the crop conditions and continued hot and dry forecasts. Corn finished the overnight steady to 6 higher, soybeans 4 to 7 higher and wheat 5 to 9 higher.
There was some much needed moisture in SC and SE ND overnight and this morning and still some chances for the rest of ND over this next week but light for SD, NE, MN and IA. The main hazard continues to be the much above normal temps in the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes and WCB. The 6-10 day outlook continues to show above normal temps and below normal moisture for all major growing areas.
July corn hit a new recent high yesterday at $7.06 ¼ with the contract high the next resistance at $7.35 ¼ and support at $6.63. December corn into a new recent high at $6.18 ¼ with the contract high the next resistance at $6.38 and support around $5.60. July soybeans with resistance at the contract high from May 12th at $16.67 ½ and support at $15.58. November soybeans hit a new contract high at $14.80 with support at $13.95. July KC wheat with support around $6.20 and resistance at $6.54. July Chicago wheat with support at $6.75 and resistance around $7.00. July MPLS wheat hitting a new contract high at $8.43 ½ on Monday then proceeded $65 ½ lower with support around $7.50. July soybean meal with support around $380 and resistance at $403.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700