Date: September 29th, 2021
Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday with live cattle lower under light pressure, feeders reversing higher after Monday’s triple digit selloff into new lows and lean hogs adding to Monday’s gap higher and a couple contracts limit higher. Cash fed cattle trade so far this week a couple dollars lower compared to last week on light volume at $122 live in KS and $193 to $196 on a dressed basis in NE.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/27/2021
This Week: 5,874 Last Week: 6,687 Last Year: 5,767
Compared to last week: Feeder steers unevenly steady. Feeder heifers 2.00 – 5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/27/2021
This Week: 3,864 Last Week: 2,638 Last Year: 3,116
Compared to last week: Steers 5.00-7.00 lower. Heifers 6.00-9.00 lower. Quality good. Demand good.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/27/2021
This Week: 5,120 Last Week: 4,412 Last Year: 6,125
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady to 2.00 higher with the most advance on the heavier weights. Feeder heifers traded steady to 3.00 lower.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/28/2021
This Week: 3,267 Last Week: 2,611 Last Year: 2,800
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 700 lbs. traded 2.00-4.00 lower while heavier weight calves traded steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was moderate on a moderate supply. Unweaned and short-weaned calves continue to be heavily discounted with buyers concerned about death losses and health care costs.
Cattle slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter for Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, up 16,000 compared to a week ago but down 14,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on Choice and steady on Select on good demand with 155 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__301.56 -1.14
Select Cutout__274.35 -.03
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.81 -.06
CME Lean Hog Index__92.15 +.64
Pork Carcass Cutout__108.12 -3.83
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__74.64 -1.10
October live cattle chopping sideways for the majority of this month with a recent low down at $120.85, support down around $120 and resistance at $125. September feeders expire on Thursday and look to settle around $154 to $155. The October contract looks similar to live cattle with range bound trading the past few weeks, but has hit new 4-month lows the past two days, holding support at $154 so far with the next around $152 and resistance around $158. October lean hogs hit a new 6-month low two weeks ago at $79.77 after 3 months of choppy, range bound trading. This week began with a gap higher move back above all major moving averages and breaking nearby resistance yesterday with the next up at $94.
Over in the grains, not much in terms of new fundamental news beyond continued fall harvest. Outside markets were bearish with the US$ screaming higher and equities lower. The next few days will provide more specific direction for the grains with the weekly energy report, weekly export sales, end of month and quarter and quarterly stocks and small grains summary. Surging higher energy prices and shortages around the world continue to lead the news headlines as well as the looming possibility of a federal government shutdown here in the U.S. and now less than previously expected economic growth in China.
Overnight, grains back higher but not able to recover all of yesterday’s losses. Corn finished 1 to 3 higher, soybeans 1 to 2 higher and wheat 4 to 9 higher.
Markets should be fairly quiet today barring any news flashes with end of the month and the USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary coming tomorrow. September 1st grain stocks for the fall crops are the final old crop ending stocks. Earlier this month, USDA cut ethanol usage and exports for corn along with soybean crush. Corn ending stocks were projected at 1.187 BBU with average trade estimate for Thursday’s report now at 1.155 BBU. Soybean ending stocks were projected earlier this month at 175 MBU and the average trade estimate is only slightly lower at 174 MBU.
Quarterly wheat stocks are not equivalent to a marketing year end, but are important as they reflect post wheat harvest totals and help confirm this year’s production. The average trade estimate for September 1st stocks is at 1.852 BBU compared to 2.158 BBU a year ago. The Small Grains Summary is a recap or final number for wheat production. In August and September, all wheat production was estimated at 1.697 BBU. The average trade estimate for Thursday’s report is down to 1.682 BBU. Spring wheat looks to be cut again, down from 343 MBU to 331 MBU with all other varieties expected to be nearly unchanged from the past couple months.
Heavy rains starting today through mid-next week still in the forecast from TX to NE. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for most of the U.S., a small pocket of below normal in the Southwest, and above normal moisture in the Southwest and East Coast with below normal moisture for the Northern Border States and Western Corn Belt.
December corn still holding a lower trend with nearby support around the $5 level and resistance around $5.40. November soybeans also a lower trend with support around $12.60 and resistance around $13.00. December KC wheat recovering but still unable to push past $7.30 this month with nearby support around $7.00. December Chicago wheat looks similar with a high so far this month at $7.33 and support right around the $7 level as well. December MPLS wheat with nearby support around $9.00 and resistance around $9.30. October Soybean Meal holding a lower trend since May with support at $332 and resistance at $343.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700
