Date: May 19th, 2021
Morning Ag Markets – Matt Hines
Livestock futures mixed yesterday with higher corn again pressuring feeders, fats holding gains after some steady cash feedlot trade already this week and lean hogs bouncing higher after holding trendline support this week. Cash feedlot trade so far this week started in TX & IA at $119 to $120 live on light volume and yesterday some additional light volume in TX & KS at $119 to $120 live. Cattle slaughter so far looking better than the last couple weeks, maybe we get back to 650K+ week, that would be helpful in holding or exceeding the $120 mark. U.S. beef priced sharply higher this week as Argentina banned beef exports for 30 days to try and curb high domestic prices. Hog slaughter still trending lower but that has actually been supportive to price as short supplies still evident especially in the North and WCB. Canadian hogs continue to work into the U.S. which has driven cash prices lower recently.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/18/2021
This Week: 1,531 Last Week: 2,267 Last Year: 3,005
Compared to last week, steers traded 3.00-6.00 higher and heifers steady to 5.00 higher with the gain on those under 600 lbs. Demand was good for a moderate supply.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/18/2021
This Week: 3,817 Last Week: 2,464 Last Year: 5,610
Compared to last week, 500-750 lbs steer calves and 400-700 lbs heifer calves traded 5.00-10.00 higher with other weights not well tested.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/17/2021
This Week: 5,234 Last Week: 3,983 Last Year: 5,499
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 2.00 higher. Supply moderate with good demand.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/17/2021
This Week: 7,834 Last Week: 6,086 Last Year: 9,315
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady. Steer calves 2.00 – 4.00 lower. Heifer calves steady. Quality average to attractive. Demand moderate to good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/17/2021
This Week: 2,229 Last Week: 1,625 Last Year: 2,556
Compared to last week: Steers 5.00-7.00 lower. Heifers 3.00-6.00 higher. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 5.00-7.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 6.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 15,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 478,000 head, down 7,000 compared to last week but up 72,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutouts sharply higher Tuesday on moderate to good demand with 114 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__323.34 +3.72
Select Cutout__299.05 +2.16
CME Feeder Cattle Index__133.90 +2.17
Lean Hog Index__111.79 +.37
Pork Carcass Cutout__116.06 -.51
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__116.58
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__111.01 +.91
June live cattle holding support at $116 yesterday, the convergence of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with resistance still from $119 to $120. May feeders hit a new recent low on May 6th at $128.50 but have rallied sharply since with resistance next up around $140. June lean hogs bouncing off the long term higher trendline after filling the gap left from the first of the month with support around $108 and resistance at $113 then the contract high at $115.
Corn started yesterday as the leader higher after the reversal from Monday. Not much new fundamental news to trade, markets will continue to look at U.S. weather and updated forecasts. The nearby forecasts continue to call for warm and mostly wet conditions for those in need. China bought another big chunk of new crop corn yesterday. Since May 7th, China has booked over 320 MBU of new crop U.S. corn and they did start buying the day we hit the new contract high. Funds have held off on further liquidation so far this week. Wheat and soybeans traded mixed yesterday, pressure more on the nearby contracts. Better than expected yields so far in the KS Wheat Quality tour, increased production estimates from a private for the EU crop and improved conditions in Brazil kept pressure on the wheat markets yesterday. New crop soybeans able to hold small gains. Soybean basis levels have tanked recently and especially at crush plants. This could be the first sign that price finally rationed enough demand or they were able to secure enough volume nearby to meet their needs for the summer. Domestic crush has been slipping the past couple months as oil still leads the product trade and meal has taken the backseat.
Grains were under pressure last night led by soybeans then wheat as corn followed both lower. Again it was the nearby July soybean contract down the hardest with domestic basis levels fading. Corn finished 8 to 12 lower, soybeans 18 to 23 lower and wheat 14 to 16 lower.
News light overnight. South Korea purchased a cargo of corn from Argentina. USDA announced private sales this morning pf 142,500 MT or 5.2 MBU of new crop soybeans to Mexico and 1.36 MMT or 53.5 MBU of new crop corn to China. This brings their total since May 7th up to 375 MBU.
Heavy rains for the Gulf continue this week with flooding concerns in eastern TX and western LA. Scattered rains continue for the Plains and Corn Belt as temps warm up. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Southwest to the East Coast with below normal out West and above normal moisture shifting to the northern Corn Belt and Great Lakes with below normal in the Southeast and Southwest.
July corn finding support this week at $6.33 with resistance at $6.75 then $6.88. December corn with support around $5.20 and resistance at $5.71 then $5.79. July soybeans breaking nearby support overnight with the next around $15.00 and resistance up at $16.05. November soybeans breaking through the higher trendline from March 31st with support next around $13.15 and resistance at $14.10. July KC wheat a double top around $7.41 with support next around $6.00 and resistance at $6.70. July Chicago wheat also a double top around $7.68 with support next around $6.50 and resistance around $7.20. July MPLS wheat with support next around $6.85 and resistance at $7.50. July soybean meal support next at $400 and resistance around $420.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700