Date: January 18th, 2023
Equites sharply lower and grains higher providing most of the pressure on cattle futures yesterday. It didn’t help to have last week’s cash fed cattle trade to wrap up the week at $1 to $2 lower. It also did not help so see that 1/3 of the volume was for deferred delivery. Leverage is the key word this week as packers will try to maintain it and feeders will be trying to regain some. Live cattle futures broke through nearby support levels while feeders now 4 consecutive days trading lower and into new recent lows. Lean hogs spent most the day triple digits higher but starting trimming gains midday with the nearby Feb contract finishing lower while all deferred contracts held decent gains.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2023 – Final
This Week: 14,391 Last Week: 17,784 Last Year: 15,073
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves under 500lbs unevenly steady, over 500lbs, 6.00 – 8.00 higher. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Demand moderate to good. Dry weather continues and a strong market continue to drive cattle to town. 7 weight index steers averaged $181-$193 and 8 weight index steers averaged $178.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,342 Last Week: 5,029 Last Year: 1,847
Compared to last week: Steers mostly steady to 3.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Quality plain thru attractive. Demand good.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2023 – Final
This Week: 11,226 Last Week: 11,796 Last Year: 6,515
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 2.00-4.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded steady to 2.00 higher. Supply was heavy with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $180-$185 and 8 weight index steers averaged $172-$174.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,549 Last Week: 5,990 Last Year: 2,435
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 450 lbs. traded steady to 4.00 higher with heavier weight calves 3.00-6.00 lower. Demand was good on a moderate supply. 7 weight index steers averaged $167-$169.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2023 – Final
This Week: 7,907 Last Week: 6,767 Last Year: 4,989
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00 to 5.00 lower, except 600 lbs – 700 lbs, 850 lbs – 950 lbs steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00 to 4.00 higher, except 600 lbs -650 lbs, 700 lbs – 750 lbs, 800 lbs to 900 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Demand for this very large attractive offering was good to very good. 7 weight index steers averaged $179-$189 and 8 weight index steers averaged $169-$176.
Winter Livestock Auction – Riverton, WY
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,491 Last Week: 1,589 Last Year: 4,510
Compared last Tuesday sale slaughter cows steady to instances 3.00-5.00 higher, slaughter bulls 6.00-8.00 higher, not enough feeder cows for a good market test. Feeder calves compared to two weeks ago on a special sale; feeder steers steady to instances 2.00-4.00 lower, 650-695 lb steers instances 7.00-9.00 lower, heifers calves steady instances 2.00-5.00 lower, 600 lb heifers instances 7.00 lower. Demand good to moderate. 7 weight index steers averaged $172-$179 and 8 weight index steers averaged $170.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,739 Last Week: 7,273 Last Year: 5,427
Compared with last Tuesday: Steers uneven, under 550 lb steady to 2.00 higher, 550 to 700 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 lower, over 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Heifers uneven 300 to 400 lbs 5.00 lower, 400 to 600 lbs steady to 3.00 higher, over 600 lbs steady to 3.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 10,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 487,000 head, up 29,000 compared to a week ago and up 19,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on moderate to strong demand with 133 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__276.66 -.77
Select Cutout__254.53 -2.02
CME Feeder Cattle Index__181.05 -.63
CME Lean Hog Index__74.18 -.16
Pork Carcass Cutout __77.44 -3.15
February live cattle holding the long-term higher trend with the contract high at $159.17 back on December 29th. Nearby price support taken out yesterday with the next down at $155. January feeders also trending higher since October, breaking nearby price support as well yesterday and the low now testing that trend line support at $179.50. The next price support is down at $176.70 with strong resistance up around $185. February lean hogs trying to carve out support with the new recent low last week at $77.57, support below that at the one-year low at $76.40 and nearby resistance around $86.
Grains actually started lower but reversed higher as the trading day progressed yesterday, led by the corn market. Still no drought busting rains in the forecast for Argentina, yet extended forecasts were improved and the reasoning behind most of the early weakness. Better export prospects were in the rumor mill yesterday which pushed both March corn and March soybeans into new recent highs late in the day.
Export inspections for the week ending January 12th were also better than expected for the 2nd week in the row for both corn and soybeans. Corn totaled 30.5 MBU but year to date down 30% from last year. China the #1 destination followed by Mexico with both taking over 10 MBU. Soybean inspections totaled 76.3 MBU as China continues to be the #1 destination at just over 47 MBU last week. Mexico and Italy each taking over 7 MBU followed by 2+ MBU for Vietnam, Germany and Japan. Wheat shipments were in line with expectations at 11.8 MBU but still falling short of the weekly average needed, now at 15.1 MBU, to meet the current USDA export estimate.
Grains mixed overnight along with outside markets. Equites pointing steady to higher this morning, US$ is lower and crude higher, breaking $82/barrel for the first time since December 5th. Grains were all higher to begin the overnight with March corn and soybeans again hitting new recent highs. Both fell off though and corn finished the overnight 1-3 lower, soybeans 7-9 lower while wheat actually held steady to 3 higher. Some mild pressure coming from China’s Ag ministry now urging hog producers to liquidate portions of their sow herd. Average live hog prices have now dipped below breeding cost.
Decent rains for Eastern OK and KS overnight and continuing this morning with snow for Eastern CO up into NE. Heavy rains in the forecast for the Southeast later this week and into next. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western half of the country and above normal on the East Coast with above normal precipitation across most of the country except for below normal on the West Coast.
March corn a new recent high overnight at $6.88 ¾, still rangebound since mid-August with nearby support at $6.48 and resistance at $7.02. March soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with a new recent overnight at $15.48 ½, the contract high from June at $15.72 ¼ and support at $14.65. March KC wheat holding a lower trend since mid-October, back testing that resistance line again overnight just shy of $8.70 with the new recent low last week at $8.03 ¼. March Chicago wheat also holding a lower trend with a new recent low last week at $7.20 ½ and resistance at $8. March MPLS wheat has support at $8.90 and resistance at $9.40. March soybean meal hit a new contract high again overnight at $487 with the spot high from August the next upside target at $531.20 and support down at $464.40.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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