Date: May 14th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed yesterday, overall a general commodity selloff. Grains led the way lower which at first supported higher livestock futures. Feeders held near steady but fats finished triple digits lower as rumors swirled that a major beef plant will not processes any cattle tomorrow. We were hoping to see at least 650K head move through this week, this could now be in jeopardy. We really need to see 670K+ to pull fats higher. Solid beef export shipments, very bullish pork shipments again this past week but very poor exports sales for both beef and pork reported yesterday morning. Cash feedlot trade so far this week has been a mixed bag. Trade in the North started early this week at $120 to $121 live and $191 dressed which is steady to $2 higher than last week, but volume limited. Trade in the South picked up midweek at $119 to $120 live, $1 higher on average compared to a week ago.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/13/2021
This Week: 2,406 Last Week: 1,990 Last Year: 4,273
Compared to last week, steer calves under 550 lbs were 8.00 to10.00 higher; steers 550 to 700 lbs were 2.00 to 8.00 higher; steers 700 to 750 lbs were 6.00 to 7.00 lower; steers 800 to 850 lbs and 900 to 1000 were steady to 1.00 higher; and 850 to 900 lb steers were 1.00 to 2.00 lower. The heifers under 850 lbs were 2.00 to 7.00 higher and 850 lb heifers were 2.00 to 3.00 lower. The supply was moderate with good demand.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/13/2021
This Week: 3,208 Last Week: 5,137 Last Year: 5,805
Compared to last week, feeder steers 750 lb to 1,000 lb sold 4.00 to 5.00 higher. Steers 450 lb to 750 lb suitable for grazing sold 8.00 to 10.00 higher. Feeder heifers 750 lb to 1,000 lb sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher. Heifer calves 500 lb to 750 lb sold steady to 2.00 lower. Demand was good. Slaughter cows and bulls sold 1.00 to 2.00 higher.
Woodward Livestock Auction Feeder Cattle – Woodward, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/13/2021
This Week: 4,047 Last Week: 3,246 Last Year: 6,204
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly 2.00 to 4.00 higher. Steer calves mostly steady to 5.00 higher. Heifer calves mostly steady on a light test. Demand was moderate to active. Quality average to attractive.
Mitchell Livestock Auction – Mitchell, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/13/2021
This Week: 3,167 Last Week: 2,273 Last Year: 3,417
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 850-900 lbs. sold 3.00 higher, A higher undertone was noted on steers over 900 lbs. An unevenly steady market was noted on heifers up to 800 lbs. Heifers 800-950 lbs. sold steady to 5.00 higher. Grain markets moved lower today. Many load lots in todays offering. Demand was good.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 118,000 head, up 3,000 from last week and up 24,000 from last year. Week to date now at 466,000 head, down 4,000 from last week. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 479,000 head, down 2,000 compared to a week ago but up 97,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date now at 1,920,000 head, down 11,000 from a week ago.
Thursday’s boxed beef cutouts higher on Choice but lower on Select on light to moderate demand with 106 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__316.78 +1.70
Select Cutout__295.91 -1.25
CME Feeder Cattle Index__131.01 +.44
Lean Hog Index__110.94 -.01
Pork Carcass Cutout__116.19 +2.08
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__117.34 -2.84
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__113.45 -2.28
June live cattle rebounding off the recent low at $112.57 which is right at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level from the contract high to the contract low back in April 2020. Wednesday’s high was just under the $120 resistance and the flip lower has now taken out more than half the rally so far this month. May feeders hit a new recent low last week at $128.50 but have rallied sharply since with resistance next up around $140. June lean hogs filled the gap, still holding the long term higher trend with a new contract high last week at $115 and support around $107.
Corn was the leader lower, meaning it seemed to be the first out the gates providing the pressure. The USDA crop report this week was not bearish! The only item helping support the bears is the new crop ending stocks a couple hundred million bushels above the trade estimates. It was still at 1.5 BBU, and never has a stocks to use ratio at 10% or just over a month and half worth of stocks been bearish. Now couple that with mostly non-threatening U.S. weather and then the MS River closing down this week, that was just enough for the pullback yesterday. A bridge in Memphis, TN was found to have a massive split on a supporting I-beam which could take months to repair. There was talk late last night that barge traffic may be able to resume early next week. The recent Chinese cancelations of old crop corn from the U.S. may have been another tipping point item this past week although they continue to book even more for new crop. China has over 400 MBU of U.S. old crop corn committed and unshipped and any cancellations make a market nervous.
Grains bouncing back overnight for about half what was lost on Thursday. Corn finished 8 to 14 higher, soybeans 12 to 19 higher and wheat 16 to 20 higher.
USDA announced another massive new crop corn sale to China this morning, 1.36 MMT or 53.5 MBU. Over the past couple weeks, that makes over 200 MBU of new crop corn sold to China and only 16.5 MBU of old crop cancelled.
Heavy rains still in the forecast for the Southeast, Southern Plains and into Corn Belt over the weekend and into next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the U.S. with above normal moisture in the Southern Plains and below normal from the ECB to New England.
July corn hitting a new contract high last week at $7.35 ¼ with support now at $6.45. December corn contract high last week at $6.38 with support at $5.50. July soybeans a new contract high on Wednesday at $16.67 ½ and support still holding at the 10-day moving average this week, currently at $15.79 ¼. November soybeans holding the sharply higher trendline since March 31st which is now support at $13.65 and a new contract high also on Wednesday at $14.61. July KC wheat contract high last week at $7.41 ½ but breaking through a couple support levels this week with the next at $6.50 then around $6.30. July Chicago wheat one of the few not to hit a new contract high this month with support around $6.50 and resistance at $7.33. July MPLS wheat a new contract high last week at $8.07 ¼ with support around $7.25. July soybean meal taking the largest percentage hit yesterday, over 6%, with support being tested now at $420 and resistance at $432.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700