Date: March 17th, 2021
Cattle futures traded both sides of unchanged yesterday in search of a direction to head while lean hogs were sharply higher. Cash feedlot trade still yet to develop this week, let’s see if we can finally break out, hopefully higher, from the 6-week steady trading. Lean hogs gapped higher yesterday and hit new contract highs. The nearby April contract now testing the resistance levels from the continuous weekly chart spike highs from May 2019 and July 2017.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/16/2021
Total Receipts: 805 Last Reported 3/9/21: 7,327 Last Year:
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers and heifers under 700 lbs too lightly tested for a comparison, over 700 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower quality considered. Slaughter cows 2.00 higher. Slaughter bulls mostly steady.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/16/2021
Total Receipts: 1,876 Last Reported 3/9/21: 2,735 Last Year: 819
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was good for a moderate supply. Some larger consignments of yearlings that included several load lots made up most of the feeder offering. Heavy rain over the weekend discouraged some producers from moving cattle. Slaughter cows sold 4.00-5.00 higher, bulls mostly steady.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/16/2021
Total Receipts: 3,208 Last Reported 3/9/21: 6,277 Last Year: 586
Compared to last week, steer calves under 600 lbs. traded steady to 4.00 higher while heavier weight steers traded mostly steady. Lightly tested yearling steers traded 2.00-3.00 higher. Heifer calves under 600 lbs. traded steady to 2.00 lower while heavier weight heifers traded 3.00-5.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply which included several large drafts of 6 weight heifers.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, matching last week but down 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 493,000, up 9,000 compared to a week ago but down 9,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher to sharply higher on good demand with 132 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__226.93 +2.16
Select Cutout__218.77 +.72
CME Feeder Cattle Index__133.86 -.07
CME Lean Hog Index__89.91 +.56
Pork Carcass Cutout__100.90 -1.54
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__88.26 -.43
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__86.42 -.98
April live cattle breaking trendline support last week, sideways so far this month, with support holding around $118 then at $116.27 and resistance at $120.50. March feeders range bound from $132 to $145 since early November. Nearby support is at $133.65, the low so far this month, with resistance at $138. April lean hogs gapping higher yesterday and hitting a new contract high at $93.12 with support around $85.
Grains were also mixed yesterday in choppy trade which could be the prevalent trading pattern until the end of the month. USDA will report their first official acreage for new crop in the Prospective Plantings report and will also update demand with a Quarterly Stocks report on March 31st. U.S. winter wheat showed slight improvement last week and should see even more this coming week from this past few days rains. Corn and soybean traders continue to watch South American weather and harvest reports. Two days in a row of bullish corn demand, Monday’s near record weekly export inspections and a private sale to China of 45.5 MBU on Tuesday, continue to help support the market.
Light to 2” rains fell overnight in Argentina covering most of the major growing areas. Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT or 2.6 MBU of corn from Argentina. USDA announced another huge corn sale to China this morning, 1,224,000 MT or 48.2 MBU for this marketing year. This is the third consecutive day of bullish corn demand news.
Scattered to up to 2” rain over the past 24 hours for the Southern Plains and into the Southeast. That storm system will continue moving east bring soaking rains over the Corn Belt and Southeast over the next couple days. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps in the eastern half of the U.S. with below normal in the Southwest and above normal precip across the middle of U.S. with below normal on both coasts.
May corn holding support at $5.30 with resistance at $5.60 and the contract high from February 9th at $5.72. May soybeans still holding long term higher trend with support at $14.00, resistance around $14.45 and then the contract high from earlier this month at $14.60. May KC wheat breaking nearby support last week with the next down at $5.91 and resistance at $6.28. May Chicago wheat with support around $6.30 and resistance at $6.57. May soybean meal holding a lower trend since mid-January with support around $380 and nearby resistance at $410.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700