Date: September 26th, 2018
Cattle futures moved very little yesterday with less than $1 trading range in both fats and feeders and finishing mildly higher for the day. Lean hogs on the other hand continued to push higher with the front month October gapping higher on the open, finishing triple digits higher for the day and breaking through the $62 resistance area from this past June. The only confirmed cash feedlot trade so far this week is in the North at $173 to $175 on a dressed basis and $110.50 live which is in essence steady with last week. Fed cattle exchange online auction later today with only 424 head consigned compared to last week’s 528 head of which none sold.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/24/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
5,700 7,745 6,788
Compared to last week: Feeder steers traded unevenly steady. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 higher. Steer calves 500-600 lbs. steady, 500-600 lbs. heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Lightweight steer calves sharply higher on a lighter test and lightweight heifer calves not well tested. Demand good. Quality plain to attractive.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Auction Report for 9/24/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
5,007 4,885 5,757
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves 3.00 to 5.00 lower, except steer calves under 400 lbs steady, yearlings steady to 4.00 lower. Demand and supply moderate.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK.
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 09/24/2018
Receipts: 3,436 Last Week: 2,518 Year Ago: 3,393
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-5.00 lower. Heifers 1.00-3.00 lower. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter cows mostly steady to 2.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00 lower.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/25/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
2,000 8,225 6,712
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released 9-26-18 ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves traded mostly steady on limited comparable offerings. Demand remains good. Quality plain to average, few attractive.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 120,000 head, matching last Tuesday and up 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 472,000 head, up 50,000 from last week and up 10,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values weak on light to moderate demand and moderate offerings for a total of 143 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__205.73 -.43
Select Cutout__194.87 -.52
CME Feeder Index:__157.83 +.53
CME Lean Hog Index.__62.05 +1.20
Pork Carcass Cutout__80.45 +.43
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__63.14 +1.55
National Wtd Avg Live__ 46.22 +1.47, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__62.50 +1.97
October live cattle holding a long term higher trend since mid-May. We have had no follow through from the limit higher move back on September 14th with resistance at $114 and support at $111. Feeders showing the same bearish flag pattern as fats. The September contract expires tomorrow. October has resistance up near $160 with support down at $151. October lean hogs again with the gap higher move yesterday, next resistance up at $66 with support at $58.
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Over in the grains, 5 days in a row of higher trade in the corn, soybeans reversed higher to gain back some of Monday’s loss but wheat slipped lower unable to gain any traction for the higher fall crops. There are quite a few new tenders this week for wheat, here’s to hoping the U.S. can attract some of that business as quality concerns are now hitting Russian wheat markets. Russian grain exports are slowing some as they are now 23% ahead of year ago totals compared to 40% higher at the beginning of September. Fall harvest still delayed in many areas with continued wet conditions expected the remainder of this week especially in the Corn Belt.
Grains were steady to firm overnight, led yet again by the soy complex with soybean oil back to testing the highs from earlier this month. Corn was unable to hold steady and finished 1 lower, soybeans 4 higher, wheat steady to 4 higher.
Brazil is expected to import over 1 MMT of U.S. soybeans. China is now looking to Argentina for additional soybeans and is expected to max out their monthly shipments near 2 MMT. Currently though, Argentine ports are closed with another nationwide strike ongoing. USDA announced a private sale of 650,387 MT or 23.9 MBU of soybeans sold to Mexico this morning.
USDA will update Grain Stocks along with a Small Grains Summary on Friday. Stocks will give us the final tally for fall crop usage along with the 1st quarter consumption for wheat. Wheat could be disappointing with the lack of exports the past couple months. Wheat production estimates could also be adjusted Friday with most looking for minor reductions in the HRW and SRW crops but offset by increases to HRS and White Wheat.
Light rains continue this week and into the weekend for much of the U.S. The heaviest amounts expected in the already saturated Northern Corn Belt and the Southeast. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing above normal moisture for all and again the heaviest for the Corn Belt. Temperatures still forecasted above normal expect below normal still lingering in the Northern Plains.
December corn off its recent contract low at $3.42 ½ with the first line of resistance is at $3.70. November soybeans also off from the contract low at $8.12 ¼ last week, resistance at $8.63 then around $9.00. December KC wheat finding support at the 10-day moving average now at $5.20 with resistance up at $5.35 then at $5.50. December Chicago wheat looks similar on the charts with support at $5.16 & $4.95 and resistance up at $5.32 & $5.40. December soybean meal rangebound this past month from $301.60 to $320.50 yet still holding a long term lower trend.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700