Date: July 22nd, 2020
Fairly quiet day for livestock futures after the triple digit lower start on Monday. Commercial buying lead the charge for higher lean hog futures as pork prices continue to climb higher. Light volume and again steady cash feedlot trade started on Monday with packers eager to buy. Only a few hundred head traded in KS at $95 live and in NE at $98 live and $157 dressed. Yesterday, a few thousand moved in KS and TX at $96 live and in IA at $99 live. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 1,022 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,224 head of which 275 sold at $95.50 to $95.75 live all out of KS.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/20/2020
Total Receipts: 4,145 Last Week: 6,265 Last Year: 3,735
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves and yearlings 2.00 to 5.00 higher. Demand good, supply moderate.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/20/2020
Total Receipts: 7,584 Last Week: 8,234 Last Year: 6,039
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly 1.00-6.00 higher. Steer calves traded unevenly steady on very limited comparable receipts. Heifer calves sold 2.00-8.00 higher on a very light test. Demand good to very good.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/20/2020
Total Receipts: 1,806 Last Week: 1,927 Last Year: 1,625
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher. Steer calves unevenly steady, except 300-400 lbs which sold up to 10.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher. Heifers under 500 lbs sold 1.00-5.00 higher; 500-600 lbs 1.00-5.00 lower. Demand very good for light weight calves and feeder cattle; moderate for other classes. Slaughter cows sold 2.00-5.00 lower, except Breaker cows 1.00-3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls were 4.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 118,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 478,000 head, up 3,000 from a week ago and up 2,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout continue lower with 159 loads sold on Tuesday.
Choice Cutout__200.88 -.86
Select Cutout__191.30 -.29
CME Feeder Index__136.48 +.17
CME Lean Hog Index__48.64 +.74
Pork Carcass Cutout__72.23 +3.79
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__32.49 +.37
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__33.60 +1.94
August live cattle holding a higher trend over this past month with resistance around $104 then $106 with support at $98.50. August feeders also holding a higher trend, since early April, with resistance at $144 then $146 and support at $133. August lean hogs trying to maintain a higher trend after bottoming out in late June at $47.52 with resistance at $53.50 then up at $58.
Crop conditions Monday after the close held steady or improved slightly for the fall crops while the market was looking for another week of reductions. Six days in a row now of new crop soybeans sold to China have overall been supportive for the soy complex, meal collapsed though yesterday and weather still leaning non-threatening. Yesterday, the US State Department ordered China to close its consulate in Houston “in order to protect American intellectual property”. Documents were seen burning in barrels in the courtyard and the Houston Fire Department was called but not allowed on the property. This announcement came shortly after the US Department of Justice accused China of sponsoring hackers and charging two Chinese nationals who had allegedly been spied on US research companies developing COVID-19 vaccines. Overnight, China Ambassador to the U.S. state these actions were “outrageous and unjustified” and that “China will react with firm countermeasures”.
Egypt only purchased 2 cargoes of wheat from Ukraine yesterday as they were highly discounted to the balance of the offers from both Russia and Ukraine. All those offers were $2 to $4/MT higher than a week ago which could have been enough to help support U.S. futures yesterday. Monday’s collapse in wheat along with last week’s sharp rally continue to show how sensitive wheat futures are to any new production estimate news. Last week all the chatter centered on decreased production for both Russian and the EU as Monday’s centered on increased production and export estimates out of Australia. This will be more critical as Asia continues to be the largest importing region of U.S. wheat.
Overnight, grains were mixed with corn trying to stabilize but soybeans acting a little toppy now. Corn finished the overnight 1 higher, soybeans 1 lower and wheat 1 to 3 higher.
Day seven of more soybean sales to China…USDA announced private sales totaling 715,000 MT or 26.3 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China (1 cargo old crop and the balance new crop) along with 211,300 MT or 7.8 MBU of new crop soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.
Hot summer temps return to most of the major growing areas over this week with spotty heavy rains along with it. The 6-10 day outlook continuing to showing above normal temps for all with above normal moisture from the Southwest up into the Corn Belt.
September corn with resistance at $3.34 ½, support at $3.22 and the contract low down at $3.15. August soybeans holding a higher trend over these past few months with resistance up at $9.05 then around $9.20 and support at $8.70. September KC wheat with resistance at $4.64, support at $4.40 and the contract low at $4.23 ¾. September Chicago wheat holding the best breakout higher with resistance up at $5.51 then around $5.70 and support at $5.17 then $5.10. September MPLS wheat holding a long term lower trend with a new contact low at $5.04 ½ on Monday and resistance up at $5.17 then $5.30.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700