Date: June 17th, 2020
Live cattle futures were firm with feeders finishing triple digits higher. Light cash feedlot trade so far this week ranging from $2 to $10 lower than last week at $100 live in TX, $98 to $100 in KS and $100 to $105 live and $159 to $167 dressed in NE. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 1,220 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,447 head of which 228 sold at $105 live for 1-17 day delivery. New contract lows for July lean hogs as cash prices dove below the $30 mark yesterday. Pork prices continue to be under pressure as processors are back up to capacity which is good to see but also leading to the next new problem of oversupply of product.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/15/2020
Total Receipts: 6,100 Last Week: 6,721 Last Year: 3,766
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 5.00 lower with the exception of some yearling heifers trading 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Market activity picked up late in the morning as lot size and quality improved. Most weights and classes traded comfortably in the lower end to middle of last week’s price spreads with the losses coming off the top side of the range. Supply moderate to heavy, demand moderate.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/15/2020
Total Receipts: 9,526 Last Week: 10,310 Last Year: 7,883
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 higher, 600-700 lb steers 1.00-3.00 lower. Steer calves 3.00-5 00 lower but weights under 450 lbs not well tested. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 lower. Demand good to very good for feeder cattle; moderate for calves. Quality plain to average, few attractive.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/15/2020
Total Receipts: 2,355 Last Week: 2,377 Last Year: 2,030
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-5.00 lower. Heifers mostly steady to 1.00 higher. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows 2.00- 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 119,000 head, up 2,000 from last week but down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 458,000 head, up 14,000 compared to last week but down 20,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower with 187 loads sold on Tuesday.
Choice Cutout__227.89 -.72
Select Cutout__213.17 -1.18
CME Feeder Index__128.78 +.27
CME Lean Hog Index__48.10 -.28
Pork Carcass Cutout__64.27 -1.19
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__29.08 -.64
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__29.06 -.72
Outside markets are mixed to start today with equities holding higher, crude lower and the US$ higher. Markets are concerned with the increase in new COVID cases which yes I agree comes with the additional testing. The concern though has been the increase in hospitalizations as well as the debunking that COVID should only be seasonal, hopefully dying out with hot temps. An outbreak in Beijing has led China to close schools and cancel flights.
June live cattle found support last week from $93.35 to $93.75 with resistance holding the past few trading sessions at the 20-day moving average currently at $97.30. August feeders chopping sideways the past month with support at $128.50 and resistance at $133 then around $136. July lean hogs again into a new contract low yesterday at $48.92 with nearby resistance at $52.65 then up around $56.
Grains started yesterday higher supported by higher energies, specifically for corn along with crop conditions dropping 4 points when most were looking for unchanged or even improved corn conditions. Many areas could use a drink and net drying has most certainly been occurring. Nearby forecasts though are a mixed bag, very typical for this time of year. July corn and soybeans testing nearby resistance once again yesterday, but unable to extend those gains into new recent highs. In the end corn and MPLS were the only ones able to hold steady to fractionally higher with the most pressure on KC and Chicago wheat. HRW wheat harvest is progressing well with hot and dry conditions this week in the Southern Plains providing most of the pressure on futures. South Central KS reporting good test weights and yields but lower than average protein.
Overnight, grains traded steady to lower with corn and soybeans finishing 1 to 2 lower, KC and Chicago wheat 4 lower but MPLS wheat 1 higher. Some concern starting to build on hot and dry conditions in the Northern Plains helping to support spring wheat prices even though conditions reported still above 80% good to excellent.
Tunisia purchased 176,000 MT or 6.5 MBU or optional origin milling quality wheat. Thailand purchased a cargo of optional origin feed wheat. Taiwan purchased a cargo of corn from Brazil. Russian Ag Ministry stated yesterday that there would not be a quota on exports for the balance of this year. This means they will be very aggressive on new crop wheat offers and word prices should remain stable if not lower when Russia begins wheat harvest.
Models are coming together showing heavier rain amounts than yesterday’s runs over this next week across the WCB. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the Midwest with above normal on both coasts and into the Southwest. Above normal precipitation back in the mix for the Southeast with below normal centered on the PNW.
July corn still holding steady to higher since mid-April. The contract low is down at $3.09, nearby support at $3.24 with resistance at $3.35. July soybeans holding a higher trend so far this month with support at $8.50 and resistance at $8.73. July KC wheat into a new recent low yesterday and overnight at $4.33 ½ with support next at $4.27 and resistance up near $4.50. July Chicago wheat also hitting new recent lows at $4.91 with the contract low down at $4.68 ¼ from this past September and resistance up around $5.07 then $5.30.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700