Date: April 4th, 2022
Deferred feeders and fats taking the biggest hit for cattle futures on Friday and week over week as corn was sharply higher after the acreage report and new crop continued to rally on Friday. Lean hogs sharply lower for the week, most of the loss coming Thursday as well, with a sharply higher rebound on Friday. This even with another bullish Quarterly Hog and Pig report from USDA on Wednesday. In general, liquidation continues for both cattle and hogs, which remains friendly for price long term. Cash fed cattle trade steady in the KS and TX at mostly $138 live, same levels paid for the entire month of March. In the North, trade was steady to $1 higher ranging from $138 to $143 live and $221 to $225 on a dressed basis.
For the week, Friday March 25th through Friday April 1st, April Live Cattle -$1.82, June -$1.52, March Feeder Cattle -$.52, April unchanged, May +$.80, August -$2.10, April Lean Hogs -$6.17, June -$5.40. Boxed Beef, Choice +$4.50 @ $267.14, Select +$10.38 @ $262.52, Pork Carcass Cutout +$6.30 @ $103.60.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/27/2022 – 4/2/2022
Current Week: 27,030 Last Report 3/21/22: 23,055 Last Year: 28,742
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 3.00-5.00 higher with moderate to good demand. Stocker cattle and calves sold 6.00- 10.00 higher with very good demand, especially for the lighter weights.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 109,000 head and Saturday only 40,000 head. For the week, 639,000 head, down 20,000 from the week previous but up 36,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 534.8 million pounds with the year to date difference now +0.7% vs. last year and year to date slaughter +0.3%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 467,000 head and Saturday only 61,000 head. For the week, 2,442,000 head, up 23,000 compared to the week previous but down 18,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 532.7 million pounds with year to date pork production now -6.5% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -6.6%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice and higher on Select on moderate demand with 100 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__267.14 -1.25
Select Cutout__262.52 +.18
CME Feeder Cattle Index__156.05 +.29
CME Lean Hog Index__102.63 -.50
Pork Carcass Cutout __103.60 -4.12
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 100.87 -1.45 on only 3,980 head
April live cattle chopping sideways over the past few weeks with nearby support at $138 and resistance at $141.50. April feeders now the front month, holding a higher trend over this past month, with support at $160.50 and resistance at $165. August broke the higher trend last week with support at $175.15 and resistance at $182.10. April lean hogs still very choppy with support around $99 and resistance at $108.45. The June contract hit a new contract high last Thursday at $127.32 before crashing lower with support around $116.
Grains all lower Friday and week over week except for new crop corn futures. December corn hit yet another new contract high on Friday as USDA’s planting intentions report on Thursday indicated much lower corn acres and much higher soybean acres than the market was expecting. Corn has continued to rally over this past month trying to entice additional acres away from soybeans. Soybeans were hit the hardest last week followed closely behind by wheat futures. China has also been absent from the market recently and selling massive amounts of soybeans from state reserves.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending 3/29 showed managed money or funds reducing their net long positions for all the grains. They sold 29.4K contracts of corn (net long 354.6K), selling 73 contracts of Chicago wheat (net long 19.4K), selling 17.9K soybeans (net long 156.2K) and selling 479 contracts of KC wheat (net long 45.3K).
For the week, Friday March 25th through Friday April 1st, May Corn -$.19, July -$.13, December +$.19, May Soybeans -$1.27 ½, July -$1.21 ¾, November -$.90, May KC Wheat -$.97 ¾, July -$.93 ¼, September -$.84 ½, May Chicago Wheat -$1.17 ¾, July -$1.08 ¼, May MPLS Wheat -$.39, September -$.42 ½, May Soybean Meal -$37.90, October -$27.40.
Grains back higher overnight with corn finishing 9 to 13 higher, soybeans 14 to 16 higher and wheat 20 to 25 higher. The war wages on in Ukraine has most are reporting Russian troops moving away from Kyiv but digging in deeper and advancing in eastern Ukraine. Air raids and shelling continues around the Black Sea port cities. There also continues to be numerous reports of civilian casualties and accusations of war crimes against Russia. Energies are higher this morning along with the US$.
USDA announced a massive private sale of 1,084,000 MT or 42.7 MBU of corn for delivery to China. This is split with 26.6 MBU of old crop corn and 16.1 MBU for new crop.
Heavy rain and severe weather expected in the Southeast again this week. There are some light chances spread across the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the middle of the country and below normal in the PNW and the Southeast with above normal moisture primarily in the North and dipping into the Corn Belt and below normal for the Southern Plains and the eastern quarter of the U.S.
May corn choppy this past month with nearby support at $7.27 and resistance up at $7.70. July corn has a higher trend, a new contract high last week at $7.53 and support at $6.95. The December contract continues to hold a higher trend with support around $6.50 and another new contract high overnight at $6.97 ¾. May soybeans into a new recent low overnight at $15.76 ¾, support next down around $15.50 and resistance around $16.80. July soybeans look similar with a new recent low at $15.60 ½, support also around $15.50 and resistance at $16.58. The November contract breaking the $14 level last week for a new 2-month low with support next around $13.80 and resistance at $14.80. May KC wheat breaking below the $10 level last week down to $9.93 with resistance up around $10.90. The July contract also down to $9.93 with resistance around $10.80. May Chicago wheat down to a new recent low at $9.72 last week with resistance at $10.75. July looks similar with support at $9.67 and resistance at $10.65. May MPLS wheat with support around $10.20 and resistance around $11.20. May Soybean Meal breaking the long term higher trend with support around $440 and resistance at $479.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336