Date: February 18th, 2020
Cattle futures shot higher to end last week, live cattle contracts nearly touching the $3 limit higher. Markets did calm down into the close yet were still able to hold triple digit gains. Cash feedlot trade slipped another $1 to $2 this past week down to $119 live in the South and in the North trade was reported at $119 live and $190 on a dressed basis.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 02/14/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 191,800 30,000 5,000 226,800
Last Week: 186,600 7,900 24,900 219,400
Year Ago: 223,800 78,200 3,600 305,600
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven; 1.00 lower to 3.00 higher. Demand was good for light weight calves nationwide that were longtime weaned and suited for summer grass with moderate demand for feedlot placements.
For the week, Friday January 7th through Friday February 14th, February Live Cattle -$.50, April +$.50, March Feeder Cattle +$3.32, April +$3.87, February Lean Hogs -$1.20, April -$1.95. Boxed Beef, Choice -$2.03 @ $208.09, Select +$1.82 @ $205.71. Pork Carcass Cutout -$2.06 @ $62.75.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 111,000 head, down 4,000 from the week previous and down 3,000 from last year. For the week, 620,000 head, down 9,000 from the week previous but up 12,000 from last year. Monday estimated at 107,000 head, down 12,000 from last week but up 8,000 from last year.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 481,000 head, down 11,000 compared to the week previous but up 19,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,596,000 head, down 95,000 compared to the week previous but up 99,000 compared to a year ago. Monday estimated at 494,000 head, up 5,000 compared to last week and up 29,000 compared to last year.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice and firm on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 100 loads sold Monday.
Choice Cutout__207.26 -.83
Select Cutout__206.18 +.47
CME Feeder Index__140.61 +.09
CME Lean Hog Index__56.38 -.32
Pork Carcass Cutout__62.75 -.35 from Friday
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__48.79 +.50
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__49.56 +.92
February live cattle reversed higher on Friday after a new recent low last week at $118.45 with resistance up around $122.50. March feeders also reversed higher with support holding around $134.30 and resistance up at $141.50. April lean hogs still under pressure, holding support at $61 with resistance up at $66.85.
Grains were fairly quiet to end last week as little fresh news came out. Export competiveness remains tight with Argentina on corn and Brazil for soybeans. Brazil’s harvest continues to progress bringing new crop soybeans to market. World wheat values have slipped recently putting pressure on U.S. wheat.
For the week, Friday February 7th through Friday February 14th March Corn -$.05 ¾, May -$.06 ½, March Soybeans +$.11 ¾, May +$.08 ¼, March KC Wheat -$.07, July -$.06 ½, March Chicago Wheat -$.16, July -$.16, March MPLS Wheat -$.10 ¼, May -$.10, March Soybean Meal +$1.80/T, May +$1.40/T.
Overnight, grains were mixed to higher led by wheat futures as strong gains were seen for the Euro wheat futures on Monday. Corn finished 2 higher, soybeans 1 lower and wheat 7 to 10 higher.
Phase 1 of the U.S./China trade deal officially kicked in over the weekend. China has already signaled they will pull back on tariff levels imposed on over 696 U.S. goods which include soybeans, beef and pork. They also dropped tariffs altogether on live poultry imports from the U.S.
Brazil’s soybean harvest seen in line with the average at 21% complete. Private estimates are increasing production though, up over 125 MMT now as USDA raised its estimate from 123 MMT to 125 MMT last week and Brazil’s CONAB is at 123.25 MMT.
Heavy rains continue this week in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the eastern half of the U.S. and below normal centered over the Rockies with above normal precipitation across most of the U.S., below normal on the West Coast.
March corn still holding rangebound trade with support at $3.75 ¼ and resistance at $3.85 then $3.94. March soybeans holding a higher trend so far this month with the recent low down at $8.68 ¾ and resistance at $9.00. March KC wheat holding the higher trend going back to early September with support $4.58 and resistance up at $4.90. March Chicago wheat back above the trendline with support at $5.38 and resistance at $5.66. March soybean meal hit a new contract low on February 6th at $286.40 with resistance at $294.50 then around $300.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700