Date: May 20th, 2020
Livestock futures were flat to mostly lower on Tuesday. Cash feedlot trade began in Nebraska steady with last week so far at $115 to $120 live and $180 to $190 dressed. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 2,782 head consigned compared to 4,601 head last week of which 1,272 head sold at $110 live.
U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Perdue announced details of the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP), which will provide up to $16 billion in direct payments to deliver relief to America’s farmers and ranchers impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. Direct payments will be based on a portion of inventory on hand as of January 15th. In addition to this direct support to farmers and ranchers, USDA’s Farmers to Families Food Box program is partnering with regional and local distributors, whose workforces have been significantly impacted by the closure of many restaurants, hotels, and other food service entities, to purchase $3 billion in fresh produce, dairy, and meat and deliver boxes to Americans in need.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/18/2020
Total Receipts: 5,499 Last Week: 4,444 Last Year: 6,137
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves and yearlings steady. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate. Several un-weaned calves in the offering along with weaned calves and yearlings.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/18/2020
Total Receipts: 9,315 Last Week: 10,767 Last Year: 7,611
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00-3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-6.00 higher under 850 lbs, over 1.00-2.00 lower. Steer calves mostly steady to firm. Heifer calves 1.00-4.00 higher.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/18/2020
Total Receipts: 2,556 Last Week: 1,727 Last Year: 1,939
Compared to last week: Steers 5.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Quality mostly attractive. Demand good. Slaughter cows 1.00- 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 2.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 99,000 head, up 10,000 from last week but down 22,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 397,000 head, up 36,000 compared to last week but down 69,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower yesterday with 120 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__409.47 -5.48
Select Cutout__388.87 -6.00
CME Feeder Index__126.84 +1.11
CME Lean Hog Index__67.04 -.56
Pork Carcass Cutout__97.70 -9.76
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__39.89 no comparison
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__38.36 +1.34
Cattle on Feed as of May 1st will be reported by USDA this coming Friday. The on feed number is expected to be 94% to 95% of a year ago as many of moved to a maintenance type ration to slow down growth and allow packers to get back to capacity. Placements are expected to be near 77% of a year ago with marketings down near 75%.
U.S. equites back higher today along with gold and crude as the U.S. dollar is lower. June live cattle holding a higher trend since hitting the new contract low at $76.60 back on April 6th. Support at $92 then $90 with resistance at $100 then around $105.90. We still have over a month until expiration and price convergence as cash continues to carry over a $20 premium or positive basis. May feeders also holding a higher trend with the contract low from April 6th at $103.62. The recent high so far this month is at $130.85 with resistance next up at $135 and support at $123.50 then $121. June lean hogs on a lower trend since peaking at $66.95 back on May 4th with support next around $55.
Grains were mixed on Tuesday as planting pace was less than expected yet still ahead of the average pace. No real weather issues in the forecast for developing crops here in the U.S. but many private estimates are rapidly decreasing their production estimates for Brazil’s second corn crop. USDA estimated the total corn crop for Brazil at 101 MMT while the numbers being talked about this week are down to 97 MMT, a drop of approximately 150 MBU. Wheat futures are still in search of low as rains are in the forecast and should be beneficial across the U.S., Europe and parts of Russia.
Day 1 of the Virtual Kansas Wheat Tour wrapped up yesterday finding lots of freeze damage along with drought conditions worsening. These reports came up for a yield range in North Central Kansas of 25.6 to 59.4 bushels per acre, for an average of 41.1 bushels per acre. The yield range in northwest Kansas was from 20 to 117 bushels per acre, for an average of 51.7 bushels per acre. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service has the Kansas average pegged at 47 bushels per acre, as of its last report.
Overnight, grains were mixed as news remains fairly quiet. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 lower, soybeans 3 to 4 higher and wheat 3 to 6 higher.
Heavy rains in areas of the Southern Plains for this week and into next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps across the U.S. except in the Southern Plains with above normal precipitation from the Southern Plains up into the Corn Belt and below normal in the Northwest and Northeast.
July corn trying to break to the long term lower trend with a new recent high on Monday at $3.25 ½. The contract low is down at $3.09, nearby support around $3.19 with resistance up around $3.40. July soybeans in a choppy 30 cent range this past month with support at $8.30 and resistance up around $8.60. July KC wheat crashing to new recent lows with support next at $4.27 and resistance around $4.80. July Chicago wheat testing the recent lows from mid-March around $4.95 but holding so far this week with resistance up around $5.30.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700