Date: January 21st, 2020
Livestock futures traded mixed to end the week but we still took $1 off live cattle futures and $2 off feeders compared to a week ago. This latest round of winter weather is the first for the season covering the majority of the feeding area yet still not enough to add much weather premium heading into a 3-day weekend. Cash feedlot trade was rolling Thursday first in the South at $124 live, steady with the week previous. Feeders held back for a bit in the North but by late afternoon trades were reported also steady with the week previous at $124 live and $198 to $200 dressed.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 01/17/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This week: 281,400 49,300 61,700 392,400
Last week: 377,500 59,900 94,300 531,700
Year Ago: 267,400 63,600 3,800 334,800
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven, ranging from 1.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Colder weather conditions combined with moisture systems this week, affected many areas of the country constraining receipts in some areas as producers elected to wait for better conditions before bringing cattle to town. After several rounds of wet heavy snows over the last several weeks in areas of the Northern Plains, pen conditions have deteriorated effecting cattle yields, however most producers noted conditions are still better than a year ago. Feedlots in all regions remain at or near full capacity. Grazing wheat in areas of the Southern Plains remains challenging with the current conditions, which has caused many cattle to be placed in grow yard or feedlots earlier than planned.
For the week, Friday January 10th through Friday January 17th, February Live Cattle -$1.07, April -$.70, January Feeder Cattle -$2.25, March -$2.45, February Lean Hogs +$.42, April -.02. Boxed Beef, Choice +$4.13 @ $214.17, Select +$6.22 @ $212.75. Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.97 @ $75.47.
Cattle slaughter for the week estimated at 631,000 head, down 9,000 from the week previous but up 5,000 from last year. Beef production last week is estimated at 521.8 million pounds compared to 528.1 million the week previous and 511.1 million last year. Hog slaughter for the week estimated at 2,574,000 head, down 121,000 compared to the week previous but up 86,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 552.4 million pounds compared to 577.4 the week previous and 534.5 million last year.
Boxed beef cutout values firm on moderate demand and light offerings for a total of 84 loads sold on Monday.
Choice Cutout__214.64 +.47
Select Cutout__213.48 +.73
CME Feeder Index__145.74 -.61
CME Lean Hog Index__60.45 +.30
Pork Carcass Cutout__75.47 +.02
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__38.60 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__49.61 -1.44
National Wtd Avg Live Price__39.37 -.26, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.79 -.43
February live cattle holding to a sideways pattern since November with support first at $124.50 and the contract high from mid-December up at $127.90. January feeders showing a higher trend but unable to break through the $147.80 area with support around $143. February lean hogs continue the long-term lower trend testing recent lows near $65.50 early last week with resistance around $70 then $72.
Grains reversed back higher after the full Ag collapse on Thursday with corn and KC wheat leading the way. March soybeans show a key reversal on the daily chart, a bullish technical indicator. Corn used for ethanol spiked for a new weekly high this marketing year and weekly export sales for all the grains were good this past week. Trade should again be the main driver this week as the Chinese week long Lunar New Year celebration begins January 25th.
For the week, Friday January 10th through Friday January 17th, March Corn +$.03 ½, May +$.02 ½, March Soybeans -$.16 ¼, May -$.16, March KC Wheat -$.00 ½, July -$.00 ½, March Chicago Wheat +$.06, July +$.02 ¾, March Soybean Meal -$2.90/T, May -$2.50/T.
Markets closed yesterday for Martin Luther King Day as grains reopened last night at 7 PM CST. Overnight, corn, soybeans and KC Wheat stayed in the red while Chicago Wheat traded both sides of unchanged. Corn finished 3 lower, soybeans 6 to 7 lower, KC wheat 2 lower and Chicago wheat 1 to 2 higher.
No sales announced by USDA this morning. South Korea purchased 69,000 MT or 2.7 MBU of South American corn. Jordan purchased 60,000 MT or 2.2 MBU or optional origin hard wheat.
Brazil soybean harvest is less than 2% complete compared to 6% last year. There is some concern that harvest delays will reduce the second corn crop plantings.
Another round of wintry mix expected across the Southern Plains this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps throughout the U.S. with above normal precipitation for the Southern Plains and West Coast and below normal on the East Coast.
March corn with a reversal higher to end last week. The first line of support is at $3.75 ¼, last week’s new recent low, and resistance is up at $3.92 then right around the $4 mark. March soybeans again with a key reversal higher on Friday, lower low and higher high than the previous day with a higher close. Support from $9.20 to $9.16 with resistance up around $9.40 then $9.61. March KC wheat still trending higher with support at $4.70 and resistance at $5.10. March Chicago wheat also still trending higher and continues to look the most impressive with a rally over $1.20 since early September. Nearby support is at $5.45 with resistance up around $5.80. March soybean meal still holding a lower trend with the contract low down at $295.50 and resistance at $304.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700