Date: March 27th, 2019
Another day of mixed to weaker trade for the cattle and hogs yesterday while grains finished in the red across the board. Only some light cash feedlot trade so far this week in the north at steady to $2 lower than a week ago and few sales reported in KS at $126 live, also $2 lower. Fed Cattle Exchange online auction later this morning with 500 head consigned compared to last week’s 596 head of which none sold.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 03/25/2019
Receipts: 2696 Last Week: 2568 Year Ago: 1722
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 4.00-6.00 higher. Heifers 3.00-5.00 higher. Quality plain thru attractive. Demand good. Slaughter cows 9.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 5.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards-Carthage, MO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 03/25/2019
Receipts: 7087 Last Week: 7809 Year Ago: 4796
Compared to last week, steer calves 3.00 to 5.00 higher, heifer calves and yearlings steady to 3.00 higher. Demand good, supply moderate to heavy.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 03/26/2019
Receipts: 2497 Last Week: 1646 Year Ago: 793
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers under 550 lbs mostly steady in a light test, 550 to 700 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers and heifers over 700 lbs steady. Slaughter cows 2.00 lower. Slaughter bulls steady to 1.00 lower. Demand moderate to good.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 119,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, up 9,000 from a week ago and up 15,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 120 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__229.51 +.51
Select Cutout__218.99 +.26
CME Feeder Index__142.04 +.24
CME Lean Hog Index__67.13 +2.16
Pork Carcass Cutout__81.07 +.87
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__74.35 +2.94
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__73.03 +3.91
April live cattle matching the contact high last Thursday at $130.45 but pulling back since and looking to test the March low at $126.32. March feeders expire later this week. April into a new recent high but still unable to break through the $151 resistance last week with support near $145.50 then $143.70. April lean hogs with a new contract high at $80.30 last Friday, resistance next near $84 from last summer then $92.82 from July 2017.
***************************************************************************
Grains turned around lower yesterday after small gains on Monday. Egypt booked 120,000 MT or 4.4 MBU of US SRW yesterday with Cargill coming in $1.5 to $3.5/MT or $.04 to $.10/BU cheaper than Romania, Ukraine or Russian origins. This only pulled Chicago wheat futures back to fractionally lower for the day. Russian wheat exports have slowed some recently, currently estimated at 31 MMT. USDA has projected 37 MMT for their marketing year which ends in 3 months and some doubt building they can get another 6 MMT sold.
Overnight grains were mixed with corn 2 lower, soybeans 3 to 4 lower and wheat 1 to 2 higher.
Overnight news is very light. The next round of trade talks kick off on Thursday in Beijing then move back to DC next week. Weather should be the trade focus but not getting much attention until we get into April. Friday USDA will give us their first official 2019 Planting Intentions along with Quarterly Grain Stocks, both using data before the flooding began.
USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks (Billion Bushels)
Avg Trade Est March 2018 March Record
Corn 8.335 8.892 8.892
Soybeans 2.683 2.109 2.109
Wheat 1.555 1.495 2.25 (1987)
USDA Prospective Plantings (Acreage Estimates, Million)
Avg Trade Est USDA Outlook March 2018 Final 2018
Corn 91.332 92.0 88.026 89.129
Soybeans 86.169 85.0 88.982 89.196
All Wheat 46.915 47.0 47.339 47.800
Winter 31.460 31.29 32.708 32.535
Spring 13.419 12.7 12.627 13.2
Durum 2.081 2.004 2.065
Sorghum 5.777 5.932 5.690
Cotton 14.498 14.3 13.469 14.099
The Midwest floods continue with snowmelt now from the North and more rain in the nearby forecasts for the Midwest. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing normal to below normal temps east and central with above normal west and normal to above normal moisture for the all except the ECB and Northeast.
May corn trending higher these past couple weeks with resistance holding firm at $3.80 then $3.90 and support at $3.68. May soybeans still holding a lower trend since February with resistance at $9.12 then $9.17 and support near $8.85. May KC wheat still trending higher with resistance next up at $4.70, contract low from earlier this month at $4.18 ¼. May Chicago wheat with resistance up at $4.95, contract low at $4.27. May soybean meal breaking the lower trend finding nearby resistance at $316.50 with support at $308.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700