Date: December 9th, 2019
Cattle futures rebounded for a higher close on Friday but still finished lower for the week. Cash feedlot trade starting midweek in the South at $119 live, steady to $1 higher than the week previous. Trade in Nebraska was reported at $119 live and $188 dressed, also steady to $1 higher. The Tyson plant is back up and running pushing daily kills back up to the 120K head per day range. This has negatively impacted beef prices down sharply this past week.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 12/06/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This week: 286,900 26,000 56,700 352,900
Last week: 58,600 25,900 100 84,600
Year Ago: 330,400 51,000 3,600 385,000
Compared to two weeks ago, steers and heifers sold uneven, 1.00 lower to 3.00 higher. More weaned calves with health programs behind them were seen in auctions this week and were met with higher prices for the most part. There was some individual sales that had weaker spots in them, but demand overall was rated at good to very good at most sales. Many cow-calf producers traditionally wait until after the Thanksgiving Day holiday to market their calves and this year was no exception. Some areas of the country are dealing with mud at the beginning of December which is very early in the winter for that situation. The snow storm that blitzed through Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin was not a sight that locals needed this early. In Minnesota and Wisconsin, some producers are dealing with some hay shortages due to the cold late spring and then a wet summer on top of it. Those producers had difficulties getting hay put up in a timely manner because of it. Yearling are still in demand; however, the clock is ticking on getting them to the feedyard and then fed long enough to be able to hedged off the April Live Cattle Contract.
For the week, Friday November 29th through Friday December 6th, December Live Cattle -$1.00, February -$1.22, January Feeder Cattle -$.72, March -$1.35, December Lean Hogs -$.90, February -$.62. Boxed Beef, Choice -$7.56 @ $224.56, Select -$3.04 @ $207.30. Pork Carcass Cutout +$.23 @ $82.08.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 121,000 head, down 6,000 from the week previous and matching last year. For the week, 679,000 head, up 126,000 from the week previous and up 10,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 562.7 million pounds for the week bringing year to date up .4% compared to a year ago with cattle slaughter up 1.1%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 488,000 head, up 2,000 compared to the week previous and up 17,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,799,000 head, up 466,000 compared to the week previous and up 231,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production for the week estimated at 600.1 million pounds brining year to date up 4.6% compared to a year ago with slaughter up 4%.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings for a total of 132 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__224.56 -1.04, -7.56 for the week
Select Cutout__207.30 -.82, -3.04 for the week
CME Feeder Index__144.49 -.04
CME Lean Hog Index__58.49 +.15
Pork Carcass Cutout__82.08 +.72
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.74 -1.06
National Wtd Avg Live Price__33.27 -.96, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__46.59 -.08
December live cattle hit a new recent high last week at $122.07 with resistance next up near $124 and closing Friday right at the 20-day moving average providing the first support with the next down around $118. January feeders holding a lower trend that has been in place since peaking at $147.77 back on November 12th. Resistance first up at $143 with support at $140. December lean hogs expire this Friday. February holding the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April with support just around $65.50 and resistance at $70.
Grains again mixed on Friday with soybeans the leader higher most of the week as wheat was the leader lower and corn was flat to lower. Weather in South America is still not moving the markets as beneficial rains fall in Brazil but hot and dry conditions are in Argentina. The China news continues to focus on December 15th as the next date the U.S. may ramp up additional tariffs. USDA will update supply and demand estimates for the U.S. and world commodities on Tuesday.
For the week, Friday November 29th through Friday December 6th, March Corn -$.04 ½, May -$.03 ¼, January Soybeans +$.12 ¾, March +$.12 ½, March KC Wheat -$.16, July -$.13 ¾, March Chicago Wheat -$.17 ¼, July -$.12 ¾, March MPLS Wheat -$.02 ½, January Soybean Meal +$6.20T.
Overnight, grains were steady to higher, soybeans continue to lead the way finishing 8 higher with corn and wheat steady.
Russian wheat prices are up again this week making the 4th week in a row of higher prices. Most private wheat estimates for Australian production this year around 15 MMT which would be an 11-year low. USDA last month was at 17.2 MMT. Chinese soybean imports are increasing as well as their hog herd. They reported soybean imports for November at 8.3 MMT compared to 5.4 MMT last November and a 2% increase in hog herd size, the first in over a year.
This week’s weather calling for heavy snow in the North and spots of heavy rain in Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps in the Rockies with above normal in the South and East Coast and normal to above normal precipitation for all except for the Gulf States.
March corn trying to break the lower trend that has been in place since mid-October with support from $3.77 to $3.73 and resistance at $3.85. January soybeans have broken the lower trend with 4 days of higher trade, support at $8.67 ½ and resistance at the $9 mark. March KC wheat holding a higher trend since early September with support at $4.29 and resistance up near $4.50. March Chicago wheat also trending higher with support at $5.19 and resistance up at $5.46. January soybean meal into a new contract low last week but has rebounded quickly since with resistance next at $305.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700