Date: July 3rd, 2018
Livestock were mixed yesterday with light trade volume this holiday week. Livestock markets are open until 12:15 today and close tomorrow. No cash feedlot trade confirmed and even bids and offers are still not well defined. Feeders performed the best yesterday with corn sharply lower and were able to hit new highs not seen since early March.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Auction Report for 7/2/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
2,026 8,156 0
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold 5.00-8.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves traded with a sharply higher undertone on limited offerings. Demand good. Quality average, few attractive.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Auction Report for 7/2/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
6,123 9,442 0
Compared to last Monday, steers under 800 lbs and heifers under 600 lbs 3.00 to 7.00 higher, steers over 800 lbs and heifers over 600 lbs 7.00 to 10.00 higher. Demand good to very good, supply heavy.
Cattle slaughter from Monday is estimated at 119,000 head, up 3,000 from last week and up 11,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Monday is estimated at 463,000 head, up 28,000 from last week and 89,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on moderate demand and heavy offerings for a total of 134 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__211.88 -.08
Select Cutout__198.77 +.20
CME Feeder Index:__142.67 +.67
CME Lean Hog Index.__82.97 -.72
Pork Carcass Cutout__86.65 -.73
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__78.53 +1.21
National Wtd Avg Live__ 59.62 +.24, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__77.55 +.75
August live cattle filled the $1 gap left from early last week and now into a new recent high. Support is around $102 with the next resistance up near $110. August feeders also trending higher and hitting a new high to start this week with $154 the next area of resistance and good support around $145. July lean hogs rallying back last week and back within striking distance of the recent high at $83.82 with support at $78.
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Grains collapsed to begin the new month and new quarter after a steady to higher overnight followed by a weak open. Corn futures hit new contract lows while soybeans and wheat tested the recent support levels. Export inspections for the week ending June 28th were right in line with expectations. Corn strong again at 60.5 MBU, soybeans decent at 31.2 MBU while wheat and grain sorghum poor again at 11.9 MBU and 370,691 BU respectively.
Trade is still a concern with July 6th the next date for implementing another round of tariffs on China and supposed China will hit the U.S. with the 25% tariff on soybeans. Top economic advisor to the newly elected Mexican President suggested with the election over, uncertainty has been removed and that will jump start NAFTA renegotiation talks.
Crop progress and conditions released after the close were in line with expectations. Corn silking progress at 17% complete (last week 5%), compared to the year ago week 9%. Corn conditions down 1 point as expected to 76% good to excellent and 6% poor to very poor
Soybeans blooming progress at 27% complete (last week 12%), compared to the year ago week 17%. Soybean conditions down 2 points to 71% good to excellent and 6% poor to very poor.
Cotton squaring progress at 42% complete (last week 32%), compared to the year ago week 43% and setting bolls progress at 12% complete (last week 6%), compared to the year ago week 12%. Cotton conditions actually improved a point to 43% but poor to very poor increased 5 to 24%.
Winter Wheat harvested progress at 51% complete (last week 41%), compared to the year ago week 51%. Spring Wheat headed progress at 58% complete (last week 34%), compared to the year ago week 56%. Spring wheat conditions unchanged at 77% good to excellent, 18% fair and 5% poor to very poor.
Grain sorghum headed at 22% compared to 24% last year and average pace. Conditions were down 3 points to 53% good to excellent.
USDA May Industrial Use/Crush Report
Total Corn for Industrial: 524 MBU, +5% from April & +3% from LY
Corn for Ethanol: 470.4 MBU vs 445.3 in April (+5.6%) & 453 LY (+3.8%)
DDGs Produced: 1.97 MMT, +7% from April & +3% from LY
Soybeans Crushed: 172 MBU 172 MBU in April & 158 MBU LY (+9%)
Over this next week, rains are light in the Plains and Midwest with 1-3 inches expected from NE to MN and isolated areas of heavier amounts like last night with a couple spots reported 5-10”. The latest 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal precipitation for the North and above normal South with temperatures normal to above normal now for all of the U.S.
Grain markets close at 12:05 today and closed all day tomorrow. July corn in delivery now and testing long term support on the weekly chart at $3.35. December corn down to a new contract low on Monday at $3.58 ½ with resistance up at $3.80. July & August soybeans testing the long term support around $8.50. November soybeans only a couple cents away from testing the low at $8.64 ½ with resistance up at $9.20. September KC wheat with strong support at $4.70 support and resistance at $5.16. September Chicago wheat with strong support building at $4.80 and resistance at $5.13.