Date: March 20th, 2023
Mixed livestock futures on Friday but all lower week over week. Cash fed cattle trade weaker for the first in over a month as trade in South was $1 lower at $164 live and trade in the North was $1 to $2 lower at $164 live and $263 to $264 dressed. Cattle on feed report on Friday was again bullish and in line expectations. Cattle on feed as of March 1st totaled 11.6 million head which is 4% below a year ago. Placements during February totaled 1.73 million head and down 7% vs. last year while marketings totaled 1.74 million head and down 5% from last year.
Weekly closes in the meats…April Live Cattle -$1.95, June -$2.25, March Feeder Cattle -$2.62, April -$3.00, August -$1.22, April Lean Hogs -$7.57, June -9.45. Boxed Beef, Choice -$1.56 @ $283.35, Select +$.90 @ $272.44, Pork Carcass Cutout -$6.85 @ $80.95.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/12/2023 – 3/18/2023
Total Receipts: Current Week 25,316 Last Report (3/6/23) 31,010 Last Year 29,980
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 1.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle. Steer calves sold steady . Heifer calves sold steady to 1.00 higher. Rains fall in the western part of the state helps but still remains in an extreme drought. The lack of feeder cattle is starting to drive prices higher for this time of year.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 631,000 head, down 3,000 from the week previous and down 5,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 519.1 million pounds. Year to date beef production down 4.2% vs. last year and slaughter down 2.4%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,492,000 head, down 5,000 from the week previous but up 67,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 539.7 million pounds. Year to date pork production now up 0.9% compared to last year with slaughter up 1.6%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate to weak demand with only 79 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__283.35 -.60
Select Cutout__272.44 +.68
CME Feeder Cattle Index__187.87 +.16
CME Lean Hog Index__80.01 +.06
Pork Carcass Cutout __80.95 -3.54
April live cattle sharply lower the past two weeks and taking out the long-term higher trend. The contract high was hit on March 6th at $166.67 with support finally found last week right at the 100-day moving average at $161.10. March feeders starting its decline after the new contract high on March 9th at $194.32 with support at $187.60, also last week’s low. April lean hogs breaking the recent choppy/rangebound trading a hitting a new 16-month low last Friday at $78.30 with the contract low down at $75.72 and resistance at $87.50.
Grains mixed on Friday and for the week. Wheat continued to recover with a weaker US$. As of Friday, the Black Sea safe shipping deal had not been renewed yet with Russia now only wanting to renew for 60 days. Soybeans took the biggest hit last week as funds liquidated positions and South American weather was somewhat improved, honestly just not any new news there. Corn held small gains as China finally stepping in this past week with 4 days in row of U.S. corn export sales announced by USDA. The buying spree amounted to over 2 MMT or 83 MBU. The market really needed this good news as it continues to watch the equity market and monitor the uncertainty swirling the banking industry.
Weekly closes in the grains…May corn +$.17, December +$.03 ½, May soybeans -$.30 ½, November -$.44, May KC wheat +$.37 ¼, July +$.33 ¾, May Chicago wheat +$.31 ¼, July +$.29 ½, May MPLS wheat +$.36 ¼, September +$.35.
Grains all lower overnight. Outside markets are mixed with equities now higher after looking lower earlier this morning, US$ and energies are lower. Crude oil down to a new 15-month low overnight, when grains opened only down $.40/barrel. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 5 lower, soybeans 6 to 11 lower and wheat 6 to 8 lower.
The Ukraine Black Sea grain export deal was extending over the weekend, but only for another 60 days as Russia continues to scream that Western sanctions must be lifted. Chinese customs data for the first two months of the year show soybean imports at 16.2 MMT with 11.59 MMT from the U.S. compared to 10 MMT in January and February 2022.
Argentine forecasts are looking wetter through the end of March and Brazil turning drier which should help to finish out soybean harvest and second crop corn planting. This week’s weather showing the heaviest rains amounts by the end of the week from southern MO into the ECB along with below normal temps. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western half of the country with above normal temps for the Southeast and normal to above normal moisture across the entire country except for a small pocket of below normal in the Southwest.
May corn very choppy this month with resistance around $6.40 and support down at $6.06 ¾. December has been trending lower since October with a new recent low on March 10th at $5.50 ¾, support next at $5.43 and resistance up at $5.68. May soybeans taking out the long-term higher trend last week, a new recent low overnight at $14.62, support next at $14.40 and resistance at $15.16 ½. The November contract breaking out of its rangebound trading, also a new recent low overnight at $12.96 ½, support next around $12.75 and resistance up at $13.43. May KC wheat recent low on March 10th at $7.72 ½ providing support with a new recent high last Friday at $8.37 ¾. May Chicago wheat a new recent low on March 10th at $6.61 with resistance at $7.12 ½. May MPLS wheat a new contract low on March 10th at $8.14 with resistance at $8.79.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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