Date: November 27, 2023
Massive fund liquidation and technical selling continued for livestock futures on the holiday shortened Friday trading session. Negotiated cash fed trade last week mostly at $177 live and $280 dressed, steady to $2 lower than the week previous, with the full ranges from $175 to $178 live and $278 to $288 dressed. New 8-month lows for most cattle contracts on Friday with new contract lows for feeders from April forward. Lean hogs sold off as well with February forward triple digits lower and new contract lows for a few contracts there as well. I was a bit surprised to see such a sell off with the winter weather that headed into the Southern Plains over the weekend.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…December Live Cattle -$3.92, February -$3.67, January Feeder Cattle -$9.17, March -$8.25, December Lean Hogs -$3.40, February -$6.67, Choice Boxed Beef +$4.16 at $298.03 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.99 at $84.17.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/19/2023 – 11/25/2023
Receipts: Current Week 8,182 Last Week: 39,048 Last Year: 36,547
Compared to last week: Feeder cattle not well tested this holiday shortened week. Oklahoma City and Tulsa the only feeder sales this week and Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Woodward had cow sales. All others closed for the holiday. Steer calves 2.00-5.00 higher, instance to 10.00 higher. Heifer calves 5.00-10.00 higher. Demand very good for calves following more rain over the past weekend.
Cattle slaughter for the holiday shortened last week estimated at 538,000 head, down 98,000 from the week previous and down 51,000 from last year. Year to date slaughter now down 4.7% from last year. Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,221,000 head, down 423,000 compared to the week previous but up 11,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date slaughter now up 1.5% compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on weak demand with only 57 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.03 @ 298.03, Select Cutout +1.14 @ 268.76
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 225.24, Lean Hog Index @ 73.60
Pork Carcass Cutout -.51 @ 84.17
December live cattle down to a new recent low last Friday at $170.07, the lowest since this past May, with support next at $168 and resistance at $178. January feeders also down to a new recent low last Friday at $219.15, the lowest since March with the contract low at $210.45 and nearby resistance now at last week’s high at $232.20. December lean hogs also hit a new recent low at $67 with support next at the contract low from October at $65.40 and nearby resistance around $71.
Over in the grains, soybeans the leader lower for the second consecutive trading day as recent weather and nearby forecasts improved for Brazil. Funds were sellers of all the grains on Friday, although it took a while for corn to let go of small gains. Wheat sharply lower with both KC and MPLS wheat into new contracts lows. Trade volume fairly thin as expected with the holiday shortened trading hours and typical turkey hangover. Weekly export sales were a bit disappointing for both wheat and soybeans, corn and milo sales were okay. Overall the weaker world markets were the initial catalyst pushing grains lower coming off the Thanksgiving holiday. The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report is delayed until this afternoon.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn -$.03 ¾, March -$.01 ¾, January Soybeans -$.09 ½, March -$.07 ¾, December Chicago Wheat -$.02, March +$.01 ½, December KC Wheat -$.16, March -$.16, December MPLS Wheat -$.18 ¾, March -$.17 ¼, December Soybean Meal +$4.1/T, January -$2.4/T.
Grains were mixed overnight, all trading both sides of unchanged. Corn and wheat both tested but did not break through nearby lows providing support while soybeans did hit a new 3-week low but quickly bounced higher. Support coming from unconfirmed Chinese buying of more U.S. soybeans and Russian wheat values higher. Corn finished the overnight 2 lower, soybeans steady to 1 higher and wheat steady to 3 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ steady and energies mixed, crude oil down $.50/barrel but gas and heating oil steady to $.01 higher.
Recent rains over dry areas of central Brazil have certainly been the most impactful to the markets the past few trading sessions. The nearby forecasts calling for temps to rise again and rains again to be concentrated on the already water logged southern Brazil over this next week. The extended forecasts though still calling for better rain chances and lower temps across the rest of the country.
Decent amounts of snow from the Mountain West into the Southern Plains and up into the Great Lakes over the weekend. This week’s moisture will be over the eastern half of the U.S. with heavy rains in the forecast for the Southeast into the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps in the Southwest and above normal throughout the rest of the country with above normal precipitation in the PNW and Southeast and normal to below normal precip across the Plains.
December corn recent low this month at $4.61 which was hit again overnight and taken out this morning with support next at $4.55 ¾ from the continuous weekly chart and nearby resistance at $4.80. January soybeans taking out the higher trend with choppy trade this month from $13 to $13.98 ½. The next upside target is at $14.20 with strong support at $12.98. December Chicago wheat contract low at $5.40 with $5.41 hit four times since and resistance around $5.70. December KC wheat down to a new contract low last Friday and another this morning at $5.98 ½ with resistance around $6.60. December MPLS wheat also a new contract low this morning at $6.91 ½ with resistance at $7.40. December soybean meal up to a new contract high on November 15th at $479 with nearby support at $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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