Date: October 2nd, 2019
Livestock futures traded mixed but mostly under more pressure yesterday with corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat higher but KC and MPLS wheat lower. Cash feedlot trade only reported a few hundred head in the Western Corn Belt at $165 dressed so far this week, steady with a week ago. Later this morning the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held with 846 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,533 head of which none sold. December lean hogs have tested but unable to break through the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April. We are over $12 higher from the recent low earlier this month but they still a very bipolar futures contract right now.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/30/2019
Total Receipts: 5,254 Last Week: 4,667 Last Year: 4,544
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves and yearlings steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/30/2019
Total Receipts: 6,664 Last Week: 6,295 Last Year: 9,614
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded unevenly steady. Steer calves 500-600 lbs. steady to 2.00 higher, lighter weights not tested. Heifer calves not well tested. Quality plain to average. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle moderate for calves. Demand limited for short weaned or un-weaned calves.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/30/2019
Total Receipts: 3,274 Last Week: 2,620 Last Year: 3,911
Compared to last week: Feeder Steers and Heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. A slightly lower undertone is noted on Steer and Heifer calves. Demand good. Quality mostly plain, few attractive. Slaughter cows 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 4.00-6.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 117,000 head, matching last week and up 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 490,000 head, up 20,000 compared to a week ago and up 14,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice and lower on Select on moderate to good demand and offerings for a total of 156 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__213.47 +1.03
Select Cutout__186.05 -1.06
CME Feeder Index__142.95 +.44
CME Lean Hog Index__57.05 +.62
Pork Carcass Cutout__75.29 +1.56
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__49.63 -.16
National Wtd Avg Live Price__39.17 +1.24, Wtd Avg Carcass Base 49.36 +.45
October live cattle into a new recent high on Friday at $105.25, unable to push through that level the past two day and a gap remaining up to $106.42. Support is down around $102 with resistance up around $110. October feeders hitting a new 4-month high on Friday at $144.72 with resistance next up at $150 and support at $140. October lean hogs expire on the 14th and remain choppy from the recent low down at $59.30 up to the nearby resistance near $69. The December contract again has been on a lower trend since mid-April. So far this week we have tested that trend line but unable to break through with support down around $67.
Soybeans led the charge higher in the grain complex yesterday touching but unable to break through the $9.20 barrier. Corn was pulled higher and closed the gap left from the mid-August post report day collapse. September 1st quarterly stocks or old crop stocks were much tighter than anyone expected in Monday’s USDA report which could lead to an ending stock this year for corn down near 1.8 BBU and soybeans near 500 MBU compared to 2.4 BBU and over 1 BBU talked about just a month ago. Private estimates are starting to roll out for this month’s crop report with FCStone releasing yesterday and increasing corn yield nearly 1 BPA to 169.3 while dropping their soybean yield estimate by .2 to 48.1 BPA. USDA in September estimated corn yield at 168.2 and soybean yield at 47.9.
Overnight, no follow through for corn and soybeans as all the grains were weaker. Corn and soybeans both finished 2 lower, wheat 3 to 4 lower.
South Korea purchased 77,000 MT or 2.8 MBU of U.S. wheat overnight. Egypt announced a snap tender late yesterday for more wheat with Ukraine coming in with the lowest offer so far, France and Russia not too far behind. Russia’s Ag Minister confirmed grain harvest at 118 MMT with wheat at 78 MMT. USDA’s last estimate of the Russian wheat crop was down at 72.5 MMT. Finally some confirmation of soybeans sold to China after rumors that we should another 1 to 2 MMT this week. USDA reported a private sale of 446,000 MT or 16.4 MBU of soybeans sold to China.
Flooding concerns yet again in the Northern Corn Belt and along the Missouri River with additional rains expected this week and into the weekend. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps for all except the PNW with below normal moisture for the Rockies, Plains and Corn Belt and above normal in the PNW and East Coast.
December corn again closing the gap up to $3.92 ¾ yesterday with support at $3.66 and resistance up at $4.12. November soybeans with support at $8.80 and resistance up at $9.20 then $9.36 ½. December KC wheat holding a higher trend so far with support at $4.00 then $3.81 and resistance up at $4.20. December Chicago wheat also trending higher with support at $4.83 and resistance right around the $5 mark. December MPLS wheat with support at $5.21 and resistance up at $5.59. December soybean meal breaking into a new recent high and hitting resistance just above $309 with support at $300.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700