Date: September 18th, 2019
African swine fever found for the first time in South Korea, U.S. Japan trade deal moving forward to bring tariff levels in line with others in the TPP and crude back down $3+ after the one of the largest moves of +$8.05 from Monday topped the headlines from yesterday. Cattle slaughter levels should rebound this week but cattle owners aren’t rushing to sell with yesterday’s futures recovering and carry in the market. Light cash feedlot trade reported so far in the North at $102 live and $160 dressed. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 1,229 head consigned compared to last week’s 636 head of which none sold and 2 lots were passed out at $99.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/16/2019
Total Receipts: 4,897 Last Week: 5,933 Last Year: 4,885
Compared to last week, steers and heifers traded mostly 2.00 to 5.00 higher, spots 6.00 to 8.00 higher.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/16/2019
Total Receipts: 5,139 Last Week: 9,218 Last Year: 7,745
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 4.00-10.00 higher. Feeder heifers 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand very good for feeder cattle after last Monday’s sharp declines. Steer and heifer calves lightly tested and few sales 1.00-3.00 higher. Demand good for weaned calves, moderate for those that are un-weaned. Quality plain to average, few attractive and several in thin flesh condition.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/16/2019
Total Receipts: 2,653 Last Week: 2,848 Last Year: 2,518
Compared to last week: Steers 5.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru attractive. Slaughter cows mostly steady to 1.00 higher. Slaughter bulls steady.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 118,000 head, up 2,000 compared to last week but down 1,000 from last year. Week to date already ahead of last week by 4,000 head. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 488,000 head, up 3,000 compared to a week ago and up 68,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower to sharply lower on light to moderate demand and moderate to heavy offerings for a total of 166 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__219.77 -.85
Select Cutout__193.91 -2.66
CME Feeder Index__137.12 +1.03
CME Lean Hog Index__57.49 -.99
Pork Carcass Cutout__68.21 -.45
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__38.05 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.76 +.23
National Wtd Avg Live Price__36.92 -.89, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__45.08 -.01
October live cattle with a key reversal higher yesterday and matching the high from the 1st of the month at $99.90 with resistance next up at $101.67. September feeders into a new recent high with support at $136.00 and resistance at $141.00. October lean hogs remain choppy in a $10 range from the recent low down at $59.30 up to the nearby resistance around $69.
It was a Turnaround Tuesday throughout grains giving back gains from Monday. Fall crop progress still way behind with over 6 million acres of corn still not even in the dough stage and nearly 4 million acres of soybeans yet to set pods. Weather still holding to warmer than normal which is helping these fall crops. USDA did announce the 3rd consecutive 200,000+ MT sale of soybeans to China which now exceeds the rumor from mid last week about 600,000 MT being sold. Hopefully there is still more to come ahead of the next round of talks in Washington.
Overnight, grains traded both sides of unchanged with corn and soybeans finishing 1 lower and wheat steady to 1 higher.
South Korea reported its second case of African swine fever, one day after its first, also on a farm near the North Korean border. Quite a few wheat tenders floating this week with Algeria buying up to 600,000 MT or 22 MBU most likely from France. Egypt in for another round of wheat with Russian and Ukraine offer the cheapest still.
Heavy rains expected heading into the weekend for the Northern Plains, Corn Belt and East Texas. Over this next week the heaviest amounts of rain expected in East TX and centered on MO. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook still showing above normal temps and above normal precipitation.
December corn into a new contract low last week at $3.52 ¼ with the next weekly low down at $3.40 and resistance up near $3.75. November soybeans down to a new recent low last week at $8.51, breaking the $9 resistance with the next up near $9.13, nearby support around $8.85. December KC wheat holding a sideways pattern this past month with the contract low down at $3.81 and resistance up at $4.10. December Chicago wheat breaking the lower trend with support at $4.72 ½ and resistance up at $4.91 then around the $5 mark.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700