Date: July 24th, 2019
The USDA Cold Storage Report Monday afternoon was bullish for cattle but bearish for hogs, yet lean hog futures led the charge higher yesterday with the nearby August contract touching the $3 limit higher mark right before the close. Cattle opened strong but the corn rally yesterday pulled feeders into the red for most of the day. Live cattle futures into new recent highs but unable to attract additional buying once there. Cash feedlot trade quiet so far this week. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 378 head consigned compared to last week’s 326 head of which all sold at $111.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/22/2019 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,039 Last Week: 7,938 Last Year: 4,267
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 2.00-4.00 lower with exception to 600-700 lb. steers 1.00-2.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves 500-600 lbs. 2.00-5.00 lower, lighter weights lightly tested. Demand moderate. Quality average to attractive.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/22/2019 – Final
Total Receipts: 1,625 Last Week: 1,786 Last Year: 2,101
Compared to last week: Steers mostly steady to 4.00 higher. Heifers 2.00-3.00 lower. Demand good. Quality plain thru good. Slaughter cows 6.00-7.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 5.00 higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/22/2019 – Final
Total Receipts: 3,735 Last Week: 5,082 Last Year: 5,227
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves steady to 4.00 higher, yearlings steady. Demand good, supply moderate. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (54% Steers, 39% Heifers, 7% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 58%.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, up 1,000 form last week and up 3,000 compared to last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 475,000 head, matching a week ago and up 5,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to firm on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 131 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__213.78 +.46
Select Cutout__189.71 +.12
CME Feeder Index__136.94 -1.22
CME Lean Hog Index__74.29 +1.02
Pork Carcass Cutout__80.60 -.01
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__55.99 +.75, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__81.21 +2.45
National Wtd Avg Live Price__55.51 +.34, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__78.80 +2.71
August live cattle into a new recent high yesterday and breaking the $109 barrier but stopping right at the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. The next resistance level is up at $110 and support at $107. August feeders pulling back from the $143.75 high back on July 11th with resistance next up at $146 and support at $136. August lean hogs on higher trend since the recent low at $73.95 back on June 24th with resistance next up near $89 and support at $82 then near $79.
Over in the grains, corn led the charge higher pulling with it wheat for most of the day but unable to pull soybeans higher. Interior wheat basis levels shot higher yesterday as mills search for 12.5 protein or better HRW. Egypt purchased a total of 300K MT from Russia, Ukraine and Romania at nearly $4/MT higher than the price paid last week but U.S. values not even close. US$ ripping higher this month on track to test the contract high from earlier this spring which isn’t helping already poor exports for all the grains. U.S weather leaning warmer next week with the mid-day models yesterday pulling back on precipitation coverage.
Overnight, grains rebounded from a lower start with corn holding the reversal higher from yesterday and both soybeans and wheat pulling ahead of corn. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 4 higher, soybeans 5 to 6 higher and wheat 3 to 8 higher.
Soybeans jumped early this morning as China’s state planner did tell 5 Chinese crushers to apply for the 25% tariff exemption and it has been granted for 2 to 3 MMT, 80.8 to 110 MBU. Monday it was rumored it could be as high as 6 MMT or 220 MBU. U.S. negotiators will be heading back to China early next week for more talks.
USDA reported a cancellation of a private sale of 100,000 MT or 3.7 MBU of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.
Cool and dry for the remainder of this week with heat coming back in the forecast next week and scattered rains for Corn Belt. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps for the entire U.S. with above normal moisture for the Eastern Corn Belt and below normal for the Plains up into the PNW.
September corn still choppy with support at $4.18 then $4.13 and resistance up at $4.60. The December contract looks similar with support from $4.24 down to $4.20 and resistance up at $4.65. August soybeans with support near $8.80 then $8.70 and resistance up at $9.18. The November contract has support at $8.90 with resistance at $9.36. September KC holding a lower trend with a new recent low yesterday at $4.26 ½ and resistance up at $4.72. September Chicago wheat breaking the higher trend that was in place since mid-May with the $5 support taken out last week, a new recent low yesterday at $4.83 ¼, support then down at $4.75 and resistance up near $5.30. August Soybean Meal with good support holding at $304 and resistance up at $317.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700