Date: July 10th, 2019
Livestock futures all finished with strong gains yesterday, most posting key reversals higher on the charts. Corn was under pressure and buyers jumped into the cattle and hog futures. August thru December hogs hit limit higher mid-morning and were able to hold limit higher into the close. Feeders touched limit higher but finished just off those levels while fats scored nearly $2 gains. Cash feedlot trade still quiet so far this week with asking prices surely to come up with the jump in futures so far this week. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 423 head consigned compared to 392 head last week of which 53 sold for $109 live and 1 to 17 day delivery.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/8/2019 – Final
Total Receipts: 7,254 Last Week: 5,353 Last Year: 8,001
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers 3.00 higher. Steer calves 500-600 lbs. 2.00- 6.00 lower, lighter weights not well tested. Heifer calves 2.00-3.00 higher. Quality plain thru attractive and several cattle in thin and gaunt conditions. Demand very good for all classes. Condition of cattle more favorable to buyers than last week.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/8/2019 – Final
Total Receipts: 4,341 Last Week: 5,985 Last Year: 6,481
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves steady, yearlings steady to 3.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but up 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 478,000 head, down 2,000 from a week ago but up 21,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on light demand and heavy offerings, 134 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__214.73 -2.73
Select Cutout__192.09 -2.32
CME Feeder Index__135.44 +1.07
CME Lean Hog Index__71.25 -.67
Pork Carcass Cutout__73.77 +1.89
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__50.23 +.34, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__67.54 +.32
National Wtd Avg Live Price__51.34 +.38, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__66.66 +.37
August live cattle with a key reversal higher yesterday, resistance next up at $110 with support from $105 to $104. August feeders breaking higher into a new recent high with resistance up at $146 and support at $136. July lean hogs hit a new contract low at $69.87 before reversing higher but unable to hit limit higher like the next 3 contracts with expiration next Monday. The August contract hit a new recent low back on June 24th at $73.95 with resistance up at $84.
Grains were under pressure overnight and into the opening bell yesterday. Corn was again the leader pressuring both wheat and soybeans early. KC wheat was able to finish just down a penny and soybeans were able to pull higher mid-morning and form a key reversal higher for the day. Conditions were down 1 point for soybeans as corn conditions improved a point. Egypt purchased a total of 240,000 MT or 8.8 MBU wheat from Romania and Ukraine yesterday. Today should be a calm day ahead of the July crop report coming out Thursday morning. The market will be looking for fall crop acreage adjustments from USDA first then ending stocks for both old and new crop.
Overnight, the pressure continued on the corn and again pulled wheat lower with it but soybeans able to trade steady to higher. Corn finished 1 to 3 lower, soybeans 2 higher and wheat 2 lower to 2 higher.
Day 8 of the KS Wheat Harvest Report, posted July 8th, by the KS Wheat Commission and KAWG. “Scattered storms continue to be a theme for #WheatHarvest19 with farmers in the state playing “hurry up and wait.” According to USDA NASS winter wheat condition in the state is rated 4 percent very poor, 11 poor, 27 fair, 42 good and 16 excellent. Winter wheat mature was 92 percent. Harvested was 61 percent, well behind 89 last year and 84 for the five-year average. “
“Romulo Lollato, Wheat and Forages Extension Specialist with K-State Research and Extension, reported yields in south central and central Kansas have been highly variable (due to planting dates and moisture surpluses that drowned out quite a few acres), while out west, farmers are consistently seeing above average yields. Some areas in western Kansas are still seeing some green wheat because it was late getting planted. Test weights throughout the state continue to hold steady at 60 pounds per bushel and above.”
Average trade estimates ahead of tomorrow’s USDA July Crop Report…
US 2018/19 Corn ending stocks at 2.197 BBU compared to June’s 2.195 BBU
US 2019/20 Corn ending stockpiles at 1.692 BBU, 1.675 BBU in June
US Corn production at 13.664 BBU, June report at 13.68 BBU
US Corn yields are seen at 165.0 BPA down from June’s 166.0 BPA
US 2018/19 Soybean ending stocks at 1.044 BBU compared to June’s 1.070 BBU
US 2019/20 Soybean ending stockpiles at 812 MBU, 1.045 BBU in June
US Soybean production at 3.883 BBU, June report at 4.15 BBU
US Soybean yields are seen at 48.6 BPA down from June’s 49.5 BPA
2019/2020 world soybean ending stockpiles at 109.2 MMT, 112.7 MMT in June
US 2018/19 Wheat ending stocks at 1.075 BBU compared to June’s 1.102 BBU
US 2019/20 Wheat ending stockpiles at 1.043 BBU, 1.072 BBU in June
US All Wheat production at 1.908 BBU, up slightly from June’s 1.903 BBU
US Winter Wheat production 1.277 BBU (799 MBU HRW, 255 MBU SRW, 233 MBU White Wheat). US other Spring Wheat production 569 MUB, Durum wheat at 59 MBU
2019/2020 world wheat ending stockpiles at 292.4 MMT, 294.34 MMT in June
The Southeast is forecasted to receive heavy rain from Tropical Storm Barry over the weekend and into early next week. This could push 1+ inch rains into the Corn Belt. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook still showing above normal temps for all with above normal precipitation for the Southeast up through the Midwest and below normal in the Southwest.
September corn pulling back into a new low for the week with support at $4.13 and resistance up at $4.45. The December contract has support at $4.20 with resistance up at $4.48. August soybeans with support at $8.70, testing the first resistance level at $8.90, next up at $9.15. The November contract has support at $8.90 with resistance at $9.10 then $9.40. September KC wheat breaking below the month long sideways trend and below all major moving averages with a new recent low at $4.30 ½, support next at $4.12 with resistance up near $4.50. September Chicago wheat breaking the higher trend that was in place since mid-May and into a new recent low overnight at $4.98, right at the 50-day moving average, with resistance up at $5.19. August Soybean Meal with good support holding at $304 and into a new recent high just above $309 with resistance next up at $329.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700