Date: July 5th, 2019
Cash feedlot trade got going in the South Wednesday morning at $109 live, steady with last week and still premium to the nearby August contract helping to attract some buying in the futures. In the North, trade picked up as well moving from light volume at $111.50 live up to $113.50 and $178 to $180 dressed, steady to $2 better than last week. Feeders flipped from $1+ higher to $1+ lower as corn pushed into double digit gains.
Green City Livestock Auction – Green City, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/3/2019
Total Receipts: 4,196 Last Report 6/19/19: 1,875 Last Year’s 2-day sale: 6,294
Compared to the last sale two weeks ago, steers and heifers traded mostly 5.00 to 8.00 higher. Slaughter cows steady. Trade was very active for the Annual Beef BBQ Customer Appreciation Sale, traditionally known for load lots of top notch yearlings. Quality, as expected, was outstanding and weigh ups were excellent throughout the day. The load lots were aggressively pursued and scattered across a handful of buyers, in many instances repeat customers who knew just what these cattle were capable of. Several other buyers did jump in throughout the day, putting together strings of home raised cattle. Supply moderate to heavy and demand good
Cattle slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from last week. Hog slaughter from Wednesday estimated at 480,000 head, up 7,000 compared to a week ago.
Boxed beef cutout values weak to lower on light demand and moderate offerings for a total of 150 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__219.25 -1.22
Select Cutout__195.36 -.63
CME Feeder Index__133.94 unch
CME Lean Hog Index__73.22 -.79
Pork Carcass Cutout__71.48 -1.73
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__67.77 -.58
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__67.18 -.69
Export Sales for the week of June 21-27, 2019.
Beef: Net sales of 18,700 MT reported for 2019 were up 24 percent from the previous week and 13 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (6,200 MT, including decreases of 800 MT), Japan (5,200 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Hong Kong (2,100 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Taiwan (2,000 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). For 2020, total net sales of 900 MT were for Japan (900 MT). Exports of 17,700 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (6,400 MT), Japan (5,100 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), Canada (1,100 MT), and Taiwan (1,100 MT).
Pork: Net sales of 23,500 MT reported for 2019 were down 21 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (9,800 MT), Australia (4,400 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT), Canada (2,500 MT), and Japan (2,000 MT). Exports of 27,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (8,100 MT), Mexico (7,800 MT), Japan (3,200 MT), South Korea (1,600 MT), and Canada (1,400 MT).
August live cattle choppy over the past month from the contract low at $101.97 up to the June high at $107.17. August feeders into a new contract low last Monday at $130.95 with support next at $128.57, the nearby weekly low from last year, resistance up at $140 then $146. July lean hogs holding the recent low so far at $72.00 with the contact low down at $70.05 and resistance up near $84.
Over in the grains, the cash corn market still rocking higher, ADM stopping some July corn for delivery and futures up double digits for a new high this week. Soybeans and wheat still mostly followers, pulled along with the corn rally and under pressure without it most days.
Day 6, Kansas Wheat Harvest Report – Posted July 3, 2019
“This is day 6 of the Kansas Wheat Harvest Reports, brought to you by the Kansas Wheat Commission, Kansas Association of Wheat Growers and the Kansas Grain and Feed Association. Harvest Reports will resume on July 7th, weather permitting.”
“Wheat harvest continues to slowly work northward in Kansas as farmers are racing against Mother Nature while needing to crawl slowly through the remaining fields due to green stems (but ripe heads.) Isolated storms did flare up on Wednesday, but limited rainfall didn’t delay harvest substantially. There are more scattered storms in the forecast again over the weekend and harvest might slow down if the weather pattern shifts back to rains.”
No overnight for the grains with the hard open here today at 8:30 and regular close at 1:20 CST.
Export Sales for the week of June 21-27, 2019.
Wheat: Net sales of 276,500 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. The primary destinations were Nigeria (99,100 MT, including 89,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (82,600 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), Mexico (59,500 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), Yemen (50,000 MT), and Chile (36,000 MT, including 33,500 MT switched from unknown destinations).
Corn: Net sales of 175,600 MT for 2018/2019 were down 41 percent from the previous week, but up 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (74,300 MT, including decreases of 11,800 MT), Japan (53,300 MT), Canada (24,300 MT), Honduras (23,600 MT, including 12,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and 10,000 MT switched from Guatemala), and the Dominican Republic (19,600 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Reductions were primarily for unknown destinations (35,400 MT). For 2019/2020, net sales of 156,300 MT primarily for unknown destinations (62,800 MT), Japan (60,000 MT), and Mexico (30,000 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Guatemala (800 MT).
Barley: Net sales of 500 MT for 2019/2020 were reported for Japan. Exports of 600 MT were to Japan (400 MT) and South Korea (200 MT).
Sorghum: Net sales reductions of 3,900 MT for 2018/2019 resulted in increases for China (48,800 MT, switched from unknown destinations) and Mexico (300 MT, including decreases of 100 MT).
Rice: Net sales of 41,600 MT for 2018/2019 were down 57 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Haiti (15,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (10,400 MT), Mexico (8,000 MT), Honduras (2,200 MT), and Canada (2,000 MT). For 2019/2020, total net sales of 1,000 MT were for Japan.
Soybeans: Net sales of 867,600 MT for 2018/2019 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (607,300 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,900 MT), Mexico (66,600 MT, including decreases of 1,100 MT), the Netherlands (63,900 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Malaysia (45,000 MT, including 24,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Indonesia (43,900 MT, including decreases of 800 MT). Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (54,000 MT) and Egypt (6,000 MT). For 2019/2020, net sales of 161,500 MT were primarily for Taiwan (86,000 MT) and unknown destinations (66,000 MT).
Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 16,800 MT for 2018/2019–a marketing-year low–were down 42 percent from the previous week and 82 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (5,900 MT, including decreases of 40,000 MT), Honduras (5,300 MT, including 5,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), Canada (4,400 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Guatemala (4,100 MT, including 4,000 MT switched from El Salvador), and Belgium (3,300 MT). Reductions were primarily for Italy (8,000 MT), El Salvador (4,000 MT), Jamaica (1,700 MT), and unknown destinations (1,300 MT). For 2019/2020, net sales of 8,600 MT were for Italy (8,000 MT) and the Leeward and Windward Islands (600 MT).
Soybean Oil: Net sales of 19,700 MT for 2018/2019 were up 3 percent from the previous week and 79 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (10,000 MT), Guatemala (8,000 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Mexico (800 MT).
Cotton: Net sales of 141,500 RB for 2018/2019 were up 96 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.
Heavy rains so far this week from central KS into SD, northern IA and west central MO. This next week the heaviest amounts forecasted for the Southeast and 1-2 inches across the Western Corn Belt. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal precip for the Northwest and Southeast with above normal temps for all except the Northern Plains.
September corn with a massive reversal lower last Friday with support holding near $4.13, December support holding near $4.20. Resistance is up near $4.40 for September and $4.50 for the December contract. The higher trend for soybeans was taken out this week, now showing a lower nearby trend with support for the August contact next at $8.60, November at $8.80, resistance up at $9.15 then $9.30 for August and $9.30 then $9.50 for the November contract. September KC wheat breaking below the month long sideways trend and below all major moving averages with a new recent low at $4.31, support next at $4.12 with resistance up at $4.60. September Chicago wheat breaking the higher trend that was in place since mid-May. Support being tested now near the $5 mark with resistance up at $5.28. August Soybean Meal on a lower trend with support at $304 and resistance up at $329.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700