Date: June 28th, 2019
Not much follow through for cattle futures after feeders limit higher Wednesday. June fats popped triple digits higher, finally catching up to cash trade, all other contracts steady to weaker. Cash trade so far this week still very light with some trade in the North from $108 to $112.50 and $175 to $180 dressed.
Lean hogs trying to hold nearby support this week with futures flat so far this week. USDA though out with a neutral to slightly bearish Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report after the close as very little directional changes but estimates exceeding expectations by 1% throughout. United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on June 1, 2019 was 75.5 million head. This was up 4% from June 1, 2018, and up 1% from March 1, 2019. This is the highest June 1 inventory of all hogs and pigs since estimates began in 1964. Market hog inventory, at 69.1 million head, was up 4% from last year, up 1% from last quarter and also the highest June 1 market hog inventory since estimates began in 1964. The March-May 2019 pig crop, at 34.2 million head, was up 4% from 2018. This is the largest March-May pig crop since estimates began in 1970.
OKC West Livestock Auction – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/25/2019
Total Receipts: 8,041 Last Week: 12,710 Last Year: 10,528
Compared to last week: Feeder steers traded 1.00-3.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 2.00-4.00 higher. Demand good to very good. Steer and heifer calves were too lightly tested for an accurate trend. Demand moderate. Quality mostly plain to average.
Winter Livestock – Dodge City, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/26/2019
Total Receipts: 1,674 Last Week: 1,300 Last Year: 1,747
Compared to last week: Due to last week’s limited supply of feeder steers, not enough comparable weights available for accurate market trend. Feeder heifers sold mostly steady to 2.00 higher. Calves limited supply, not enough for a market trend. Slaughter cows sold 1.00 to 3.00 lower.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/27/2019
Total Receipts: 1,869 Last Week: 3,690 Last Year: 1,404
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold mostly steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers 700-800 lbs sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher. Steer calves not enough comparable weights for a market test. Heifer calves limited comparable weights, higher undertone noted. Overall, demand good to very good, quality average to attractive. Slaughter cows sold mostly steady to 1.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 122,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 2,000 from last year with week to date at 485,000 head, up 3,000 from last week. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 479,000 head, up 1,000 compared to last week and up 27,000 compared to a year ago with week to date at 1,875,000, down 26,000 from a week ago.
Boxed beef cutout values weak to lower on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 133 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__219.03 -.67
Select Cutout__196.90 -1.66
CME Feeder Index__131.87 +.36
CME Lean Hog Index__77.26 -.65
Pork Carcass Cutout__74.19 +.22
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__69.86 -1.07
National Wtd Avg Live Price__55.64 -.45, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__69.14 -1.56
June live cattle expire today and finally catching up to if not passing cash trade hitting $111 yesterday. The August contract hit a new contract low on Monday at $101.97 with resistance up at $107.17, the June high, then up at $110. The weekly nearby low from last year was down at $101.37. August feeders also into a new contract low on Monday at $130.95. Support next at $128.57, the nearby weekly low from last year, with resistance up at $141. July lean hogs into a new recent low Wednesday at $72.50 with the contact low down at $70.05 and resistance up near $84.
Over in the grains, poor weekly export sales and warm and dry forecasts kept pressure on corn and soybeans yesterday. Wheat sales were a pleasant surprise, much better than expectations coming in at 22.5 MBU taking total committed up to 255 MBU vs. 204 at this time last year.
Overnight, grains were quietly mixed with corn steady to 2 lower, soybeans 2 to 3 higher and wheat steady to 3 lower.
USDA announced a private sale of 544,000 MT or 20 MBU of old crop soybeans sold to China this morning. Here’s hoping the talks are and will go well at the G-20 through the weekend.
End of the month trading, first notice for July contracts so no limits on the front month and today is report day. Estimates for corn acres down to 87 million compared to 92.8 million in the March intentions and 89.8 in the June WASDE. Soybean acres are not expected to change in this report, currently at 84.6 million, USDA stated last month they would look at soybean acres and adjust if need be on their July crop report. With all that said, just a reminder this is survey data from June 1st on which most still had intentions to plant corn and soybeans and USDA at that time was only reporting 2/3 of the corn crop in the ground and approximately 1/3 of the soybeans. Wheat acres expected to be slightly lower at 45.5 million acres.
Quarterly stocks are also updated today. In regards to wheat this means the final ending stocks for the 2018/2019 marketing year. The average pre report trade estimate is at 1.090 BBU compared to 1.102 back in June and 1.099 BBU last year. June 1 stocks for corn are expected to be at 5.33 BBU compared to 5.305 BBU last year. Soybean stocks expected to be at 1.861 BBU compared to last year’s June 1 record at 1.219 BBU.
After the 11 am CST report, it’s back to trading weather with a hot and dry forecast for most through Independence Day. There were some heavy rains yesterday across the Northern Corn Belt with more to come mid next week. The latest 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks still showing above normal temperatures for the eastern half of the U.S. with above normal precipitation back in the mix for most areas.
July corn with support at $4.36, December at $4.50. Last week’s highs up at $4.64 for July and $4.73 for December with the next nearby historical high at $5.19 from during the spring of 2014. July soybeans still holding a higher trend since hitting the contract low at $7.91 back on May 13th. The August contract showing support at $8.90 with resistance around $9.30. July KC wheat holding support near $4.50 with spikes the last few weeks up to $4.87 and $4.97. July Chicago wheat still holding a higher trend taking out nearby resistance at $5.50 with the next up near $5.70 and support around $5.15. July Soybean Meal with support near $308 and resistance up at $328.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700