Date: June 19th, 2019
Livestock futures traded mixed to higher yesterday as feedgrains pulled back some. The only cash feedlot trade to report so far this week was out of IA with a few hundred head trading steady at $115 live to $3 lower at $181 dressed. Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 315 head consigned compared to last week’s 663 head of which 340 sold at $113 in KS.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/17/2019
Total Receipts: 3,766 Last Week: 4,222 Last Year: 7,280
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher, yearlings steady. except 600 weight heifers 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/17/2019
Total Receipts: 7,883 Last Week: 7,031 Last Year: 8,026
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 lower with instances of 7.00-9.00 lower on 700-800 lbs. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves lightly tested with a mostly lower undertone noted. Demand moderate. Quality plain to average with more and more new crop calves on offer. Muddy conditions thrive once again here at the yards today. Dressed carcass weights experiencing seasonal lows indicating feedlots are current.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/17/2019
Total Receipts: 2,030 Last Week: 2,595 Last Year: 1,958
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers 3.00-4.00 lower. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows 4.00-6.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 2.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, down 2,000 from a week ago but up 2,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 477,000 head, up 5,000 from last week and up 33,000 compared to last year.
Boxed beef cutout values weak to lower on light demand and moderate offerings for a total of 137 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__220.53 -1.29
Select Cutout__201.80 -.71
CME Feeder Index__133.21 -.34
CME Lean Hog Index__79.26 -.01
Pork Carcass Cutout__81.15 -1.82
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__76.69 +.04 from Friday
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__75.68 +.26
June live cattle bouncing between $106.50 and $111 this past week, still discount to cash or a positive basis for those that have hedged and into delivery, content with holding near $109. The August contract hit a new contract low on May 31st at $102.30 holding a higher trend since with resistance up near $107 then $110 and support near $105. August feeders into a new contract low to end the month of May at $132.15 with support next at $131.87 and resistance up near $141 then $143.30. July lean hogs trending lower since Mid-April with support at $80.50 then down near $78 and resistance up near $86.
Over in the grains, corn eased up a little, dime+ off from Monday’s new 5-year highs. Wheat pulled back the most with corn not there to support it and harvest pressure while soybeans were able to hold small gains. The acreage questions, “What is planted? What is left to plant? What is or will be prevent plant?” has the market scampering for projections, estimates and through historical logs for answers. At this time, that’s all we have as this is most certainly an unprecedented spring in many areas. Over a month ago when this rally began, the goal or drive for the market was to rally to a point to continue to encourage planting corn. That window is now closed for most. Going forward, the market will be extremely sensitive to weather forecasts given the reduced acreage base and poor early growing conditions. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day runs yesterday improved some with easing of moisture and normal temps.
The stock market shot higher from news that the U.S. and China will meet again at the G-20 in Japan next week. The White House reported a very good phone conversation between the two leaders and confirmation they will meet face to face. This would put the possibility of improved trade relations back on the table once again. This gave a quick boost to the stock market but did not phase the grain/oilseed complex. Trade negotiators from both sides will resume talks ahead of that meeting.
Overnight, grains were lower with corn finishing 4 lower soybeans 6 lower and wheat 5 to 10 lower. So far this is being called a technical correction with wet weather still in the forecast.
South Korea purchased a total of 180,000 MT or 6.6 MBU of optional origin wheat. Egypt is in for more this week announcing a tender yesterday for shipment towards the end of July. It will most likely come from Russia and Romania as it did a week ago with each selling a cargo.
Heavy rains still in the forecast for this weekend and into early next week for the Corn Belt and Southeast. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing normal to above normal precipitation for all except in the Southwest and Gulf with below normal temps west and above normal south and east.
July corn breaking through the multi-year resistance with the next level up near $4.70 and then $5.19, the nearby highs during the spring of 2014 with support around $4.36. July Soybeans also pushing through the nearby resistance with the next up at $9.20 and support at $9.00. July KC wheat found support near $4.40 last week with resistance at $4.97 then near $5.30. July Chicago still holding the higher trend with support at $5.00 and resistance up at $5.50.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700