Date: May 1st, 2019
Cattle futures continued lower yesterday while hogs were mixed. Cash feedlot trade already going this week with decent volume in TX and KS at $123 live yesterday. Only a light volume so far in the North at $124 to $128 live and $198 to $200 on a dressed basis, but hearing reports some of these for delivery 2-3 weeks out. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with 837 head consigned compared to last week’s 461 head of which 124 sold at $127.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle-Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/29/19
Receipts: 5,042 Last Week: 5,243 Last Year 6,931
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves unevenly steady, yearlings 4.00 to 7.00 lower. Demand and supply moderate. A high percentage of unweaned, new crop calves in the offering.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle-Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/29/19
Receipts: 9,687 Last Week: 7,715 Last Year 11,146
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly 3.00-7.00 lower. Feeder heifers 4.00-7.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves lightly tested with a much lower undertone noted. Demand moderate. Quality average to attractive.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 04/23/2019
Receipts: 1801 Last Week: 2461 Year Ago: 1733
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder Steers in a light test under 550 lbs steady, over 550 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Feeder Heifers under 600 lbs in a light test 2.00 to 3.00 higher, 600 to 700 lbs steady to 1.00 higher, over 700 lbs steady. Slaughter cows and bulls 3.00 higher. Demand good for feeders to very good for cow-calf pairs.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, down 2,000 from last week but up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 474,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 7,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice and firm on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 123 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__231.84 -1.30
Select Cutout__218.21 +.49
CME Feeder Index__144.66 -.53
CME Lean Hog Index__83.27 -.19
Pork Carcass Cutout__82.22 -2.77
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__81.86 +1.26
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__80.46 +1.08
June live cattle now the front month starting at a $9.50 discount to the expired April contract. June is now over $10 off from the contract high set back in March with the next area of support at $114 then $112.60 with resistance up at $120 then $123. May feeders made a new contract low yesterday at $141.45 with support next at $140 and the first area of resistance up at $147. June lean hogs pulling back the past couple weeks after hitting a contract high up at $99.82. Support next near $86 with resistance up at $94.50.
Over in the grains, new lows for wheat, soybeans and meal as the funds continue to push prices lower in search of demand. The US$ has pulled back from new highs but still elevated, South American currencies lower and tariffs still in place to China. Corn was mixed but at least came back to finish steady to higher. Planting progress still at last year’s pace, 15% complete, but behind the average of 27% with a wet week for most and forecasts looking the same into early May. Wheat conditions improved nationwide to 64% now rated good to excellent. The Wheat Quality Council tour started yesterday with Day 1 average yield at 46.9 BPA compared to 38.2 last year and 39.5 for a 5-year average. Reports by the afternoon though as the routes were moving west, talked more about thin stands and moisture needed soon and crop maturity behind the normal pace.
Overnight, grains were mixed with corn finishing 2 higher, soybeans 2 lower and wheat 2 to 5 higher on very limited new news.
USDA will update domestic crush this afternoon with expectations of 5.39 million tons of soybeans crushed in March. This compares to 4.883 million tons in February. They will also report after the close on dry and wet mill corn, DDG production and flour milling.
Heavy rains this week from the Southern Plains through the Corn Belt with flash flooding already according in parts yesterday. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal precipitation for all except the PNW with below normal temps still in the North and above normal in the PNW and Southeast.
May grain contracts are in delivery now, if you not exited or rolled your positions yet, please do so soon with no daily limits and volume thin. July corn made a new contact low last week at $3.51 ½ with support at $3.42, $3.36 then $3.30 from the continuously weekly chart, resistance up near $3.66 then $3.75. July soybeans with a new contract low yesterday and tested again overnight at $8.51 ¼. Support next near $8.38 then $8.10. July KC wheat down to a new contract yesterday at $3.90 ½, resistance up near $4.40. July Chicago wheat down to $4.26 with resistance up near $4.68. July soybean meal also a new contact low at $299.30, support next at $292 with resistance up near $310.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700