Date: April 17th, 2019
Cattle futures were mostly higher yesterday with lean hogs and all the grains lower. Light volume trading in the cash feedlot market so far this week at $126.50 to $129 live. Futures volume was fairly light yesterday but buyers stepped into support the market.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle-Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/15/2019
Receipts: 5,158 Last Week: 5,934 Last Year: 5,734
Compared to last week, steer calves steady, heifer calves 2.00 to 4.00 higher, yearlings steers steady to 3.00 higher, yearling heifers steady. Demand good, supply moderate. The percentage of new crop calves in the offering continues to grow.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle-Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/15/2019
Receipts: 5,697 Last Week: 6,208 Last Year: 8,018
Compared to last week: Feeder steers trading mostly 1.00-2.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady to 3.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves are selling with a higher undertone on limited offerings. Demand moderate to good. Quality average to attractive. Several inches of rain fell over the trade area over the weekend hampering livestock movement.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 04/16/2019
Receipts: 2461 Last Week: 2262 Year Ago: 1517
Compared with last Tuesday: All weights feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Yearling feeder heifers over 700 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher. Slaughter cows steady to 1.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and matches the total from a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 474,000 head, down 1,000 from a week ago but up 11,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice and steady on Select on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate to heavy offerings for a total of 156 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__232.05 +1.07
Select Cutout__221.15 -.07
CME Feeder Index__142.99 +.21
CME Lean Hog Index__79.84 +.27
Pork Carcass Cutout__86.53 -.51
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__78.21 +.44
National Wtd Avg Live Price__58.42 +.57, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__77.30 +.73
USDA’s Cattle on Feed report to be released at 2 PM tomorrow. The average trade guess heading into the report shows on-feed as of April 1 at 102% of the year ago level. Placements onto feedlots in March are seen at 104% of the year ago period, while marketings in March are forecast at only 97% of the year ago level.
April live cattle on a lower trend since hitting a new contract high at $130.45 back on March 21st, but trying to turn the curve north here this week with resistance at $127.80. The next support area is down near $124.70 then $123.50. April feeders expire tomorrow. May holding a higher trend since early December with support down near $149, resistance up at $155.30. August also trending higher, with a steeper track since early March, into a new contract high yesterday at $160.52 and support around $157. May lean hogs now the front month but trading very limited volume. May has a contract high at $93.25 while the June contract high is up at $99.82 and resistance next up near the $110 area back from 2014.
Grains were led lower by an overall world wheat price collapse as EU and Russian wheat production estimates continue to rise. Managed money or funds seen as adding onto to short positions yesterday. New lows reached for KC and MPLS wheat futures while corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat down to test support levels which held during the trading session. This week’s forecast still wet for most of the Corn Belt although the heaviest amounts expected in the Southeast and ECB. Brazil soybean harvest pushing past 80% complete with Argentina corn and soy harvest near 20% meaning that any adverse South American weather here moving forward will have much less impact on production and the markets.
Overnight, grains were steady to higher with corn, soybeans and MPLS wheat finishing steady while KC and Chicago wheat were 3 to 4 higher.
Taiwan purchased 65,000 MT or 2.6 MBU of optional origin corn, coming from the U.S. or Brazil mid-summer. Jordan issued a tender for 120,000 MT or 4.4 MBU of wheat and Philippines seeking 220,000 MT or 8.1 MBU of feed wheat.
Heavy rains again in the forecast starting today locally with the heaviest moving into the Southeast. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing above normal temps for all expect the PNW and above normal precipitation for all except CA and the Southeast.
May corn with a new contact low last week at $3.55 ¼, support next at $3.52 ½ (March contract low) and resistance up near $3.66 then $3.80. May soybeans still holding a lower trend since February with resistance at $9.12 and support at $8.83. May KC wheat with resistance up at $4.54, new contract low yesterday at $4.14 ¼. May Chicago wheat with resistance up at $4.78, contract low at $4.27. May soybean meal breaking below the recent higher trend line with support next at $303.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700