Date: November 5th, 2018
Western Corn Belt and NE cash feedlot trades through Thursday over 6,000 head $1 higher than the week previous at $113 to $114 live and $180 dressed. Limited trade confirmed though into Friday evening. I heard a few take $115 live in IA while KS was passing and possibly able to stretch for $116. Light volume at $116 live is rumored to have traded but still awaiting USDA confirmation today. No trade yet again on the Fed Cattle exchange last week.
For the week, Friday October 26th to Friday November 2nd, December Live Cattle -$1.32, February -$1.25, November Feeder Cattle -$2.52, January +$.12, December Lean Hogs +$.20, February -$1.72. Boxed Beef, Choice +$5.03 @ $218.50, Select +$2.64 @ $201.47.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – W/E 11/02/2018
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 341,400 43,200 23,000 407,600
Last Week 357,700 57,600 16,500 431,800
Last Year 331,900 51,200 18,200 401,300
Feeder cattle uneven with those over 800 lbs steady to 2.00 higher; under 800 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves sold unevenly steady. Demand for feeder weight cattle very uneven this week and mainly depended on age. Especially 6 weight cattle, who were either too young for the feedyard or too big for new wheat. Typically, this time of year, buyers are looking for cattle 60+ days weaned. However, this year due to the wet and muddy conditions in many areas 120 days seemed to be the earmark for numbers of days weaned. Demand for heavier weight cattle and those that would finish in April was very good. Calf demand improved some and moderate to good. Discounts are still there for short weaned and un-weaned calves as warm days, cool nights and wet conditions remain in many areas of the country.
Cattle slaughter from Friday is estimated at 117,000 head, up 10,000 from the week previous and up 5,000 from last year. For the week, 643,000 head, also up 10,000 from the week previous but down 3,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date running +2.5% ahead of last year. Beef production at 530.6 million pounds last week compared to 524.8 the week previous and 534.2 last year. Year to date running +2.7% ahead of last year.
Hog slaughter from Friday is estimated at 470,000 head, up 6,000 from week previous and up 16,000 from last year. For the week, 2,593,000 head, up 32,000 from the week previous and up 150,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date running +2.3% ahead of last year. Pork production for the week at 545.0 million pounds compared to 537.1 million the week previous and 517.5 million last year. Year to date running +2.6% ahead of last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and sharply lower on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 88 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__218.50 -.05
Select Cutout__201.47 -2.78
CME Feeder Index:__153.89 -.29
CME Lean Hog Index.__64.12 +.05
Pork Carcass Cutout__75.07 -.32
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ 46.10 +.16, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__58.02 -.87
National Wtd Avg Live__ 45.01 +.28, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__57.58 -.59
December live cattle still holding a slightly higher uptrend with support at $116 and resistance at $118.80 with the contact high back on October 1st at $119.75. November feeders holding a lower trend since October 1st with support at $152 then around $148 and resistance up at $154 then $157. January looks similar with support around $148 and resistance at $152. December lean hogs reached up for a new recent high last week at $60.20 and support around $56.
******************************************************************************************************************
Corn and wheat futures both held small gains for the week as soybeans shot higher on Thursday from the “good talks” between President Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping. There next meeting will not be until the end of November at the next G-20 Summit in Argentina. Soybeans shot higher again early Friday but pulled back as mixed comments were expressed by the U.S. administration on the trade war. Another gauge to watch is the Brazilian bean basis which has already weakened some 50 cents nearby with the new crop February dropping 20 cents on Friday. Markets were also supported by wet weather and forecasts for the eastern half of the U.S. as fall harvest still has a ways to go before complete. This week we have the mid-term elections on Tuesday and USDA crop report on Thursday to tend with.
USDA reported September domestic crush or mill usage for grains last week. Soybeans crushed for crude oil was 5.08 million tons (169 MBU) in September 2018, compared with 5.09 million tons (170 MBU) in August 2018 and 4.36 million tons (145 MBU) in September 2017. Crude oil produced was 1.94 billion pounds down slightly from August 2018 but up 14% from September 2017. Meal produced was 3.73 million tons compared to 3.77 million the month previous and 3.19 million September 2017.
All wheat ground for flour during the third quarter 2018 was 233 MBU, up 3% from the second quarter 2018 grind of 227 MBU but down 1% from the third quarter 2017 grind of 234 MBU. Third quarter 2018 total flour production was 108 million hundredweight, up 3% from the second quarter 2018 but down slightly from the third quarter 2017.
Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 501 MBU in September 2018. Total corn consumption was down 7% from August 2018 but up 1% from September 2017. September 2018 usage included 91.7% for alcohol and 8.3% for other purposes. Grain sorghum consumed for alcohol production at 7.66 MBU compared to 6.17 in August and 4.27 MBU last September. DDGS production was 1.95 million tons during September 2018, down 11% from August 2018 but up 5% from September 2017.
For the week, Friday October 26th to Friday November 2nd, December Corn +$.03 ½, March +$.03 ¼, November Soybeans +$.30 ¼, January +$.30, December KC Wheat +$.04, March +$.01 ¼, December Chicago Wheat +$.03 ½, March -$.00 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.02 ¾, December Soybean Meal +$3.70/T.
Grains traded both sides overnight, corn was weaker early but finished steady to 1 higher. Soybeans stayed in the red and finished 4 lower. Chicago wheat gapped higher when the overnight opened but couldn’t hold gains finishing 1 lower with KC wheat mixed from 2 lower to 2 higher.
USDA reported a private sale of 101,745 MT or 4 MBU of corn sold to Mexico.
AgRural pegged 2018/19 Brazil soybean planting progress at 60% complete, that is well ahead of the 43% pace seen last year and the long term average for this point in the season at 41% complete. USDA will update U.S. crop progress and conditions later this afternoon.
Light rains then snow expected here in KS this week with heavy rains still in the forecast for the Eastern half of the U.S. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing above normal moisture south and east with below normal for the western 1/3 of the U.S. Temps are forecasted well below normal across the Corn Belt, above normal only in CA and FL.
December corn back to a higher trend with support still at $3.60 and the next resistance up at $3.78 ½. January soybeans with support around $8.45 and resistance up at $9.06. December KC wheat breaking into new recent lows last week at $4.84 ½, resistance up at $5.30. December Chicago wheat did not hit a new low last week, 2 weeks ago was the new recent low at $4.85 ½ and resistance from $5.27 to $5.31. December soybean meal with support at $302 and resistance at $316 then $327.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700