Date: March 28th, 2023
A strong start for the week in both livestock and grain futures yesterday. Triple digit gains for all cattle and lean hog futures on Monday led by gap higher moves for feeder cattle. Strong cash prices continue to support higher futures, at least on stockers and feeders. Fed cattle have dipped just a little bit recently, at least in TX and KS, but it would not surprise me to see steady to $2 higher trade this week.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 03/25/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 186,600 27,200 5,000 218,800
Last Week: 194,400 45,700 44,100 284,200
Year Ago: 166,900 29,900 24,900 221,700
Compared to last week, steers and heifers under 700 lbs sold uneven from steady to 5.00 lower, to 2.00 to 6.00 higher. Over 700 lbs sold mostly steady to 3.00 lower to instances 5.00 higher. The market was the most active on light weight cattle. Cattle that are green enough to run on grass, or be backgrounded in a yard, are highly sought after as the fall months of the CME Feeder Cattle contract are so attractive.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 7,380 Last Week: 7,683 Last Year: 5,832
Compared to last week feeder steers under 475 lbs. sold steady to 4.00 lower with heavier weights steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 600 lbs. sold steady with heavier weights steady to 3.00 lower. Supply was heavy with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $193 and 8 weights averaged $183.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/27/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 6,000 Last Week: 5,671 Last Year: 8,425
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00-5.00 higher with exception of 600 weight cattle suitable for grazing up to 12.00-16.00 higher. Steer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 1.00 higher. Heifer calves 6.00-8.00 higher. Demand good to very good. Quality average. 7 weight index steers averaged $191 to $195 and 8 weights averaged $180 to $185.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/27/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,624 Last Week: 4,466 Last Year: 3,944
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher with instances of 14.00, under 550 lbs instances of 32.00. Feeder heifers steady to 4.00 higher with instance of 20.00 on the lighter heifers, except 650 lbs – 700 lbs & 800 lbs – 850 lbs steady to 3.00 lower. Demand for this eye appealing offering of feeder cattle was excellent. 7 weight index steers averaged $200 to $212 and 8 weights averaged $192 to $201
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 125,000 head, matching last week and up 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 486,000 head, up 27,000 compared to a week ago and up 8,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate to weak demand with 71 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__280.36 +.48
Select Cutout__269.72 +.97
CME Feeder Cattle Index__191.24 +2.39
CME Lean Hog Index__76.99 -.40
Pork Carcass Cutout __81.22 +.17
April live cattle breaking nearby resistance and filled the gap form earlier this month with the contract high the next upside target which was on March 6th at $166.67 and support down at $161.75. March feeders gapping higher yesterday, also breaking nearby resistance and the next upside target the contract high from March 9th at $194.32 with support at $188. April lean hogs down to a new contract low last week at $75.12 with resistance at $82.10.
Grains all higher on Monday with corn and KC wheat extending into new recent highs. Not much new news out to begin the week. Russia has stated they will not cut wheat exports but did say that $275/MT should be the low sold by exporters to ensure profits for farmers. Bids last week already down to $272/MT though and most feeling that world values may finally be increasing in the near term. HRW conditions mixed with KS wheat rated 19% G/E, unchanged from last week but up 2% to 52% P/VP. OK wheat conditions improved with 34% G/E and 32% P/VP.
Export inspections for the week ending March 23rd were not very impressive for corn at only 26.2 MBU, nearly half of the week previous and the average needed still up at 46.8 MBU. Year to date still running 37% below last year. Grain sorghum shipments were good at 7 MBU but the pace still running 74% below a year ago. Soybean inspections totaled 32.7 MBU, over twice the average needed per week and the year to date total still 3% ahead of last year. Wheat inspections totaled 14.4 MBU, right at the average needed, year to date down 1% from last year. Mexico was the top destination for corn and wheat, although 58% of the wheat inspected is destined for SE Asia. China remains the top destination for soybeans and grain sorghum.
Grains mixed but mostly higher overnight. Outside markets all steady to lower. Corn finished the overnight steady to ¾ lower, soybeans 4 to 9 higher and wheat 2 to 7 higher. USDA announced another private corn sale to China this morning of 136,000 MT or 5.4 MBU which pushes the monthly total above 100 MBU.
U.S. weather remains mostly damp and cool for this week, 1+ inch rains still expected across the Southeast and ECB later this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps north and west and above normal temps for the Southern Plains and Southeast with above normal precipitation except for a small pocket of below normal in the Southwest.
May corn very choppy this month with the low down at $6.06 ¾ up to a new recent high yesterday at $6.48 ¾. December has been trending lower since October with a new recent low last week at $5.47 ½, support next at $5.43 and nearby resistance now being tested up around $5.70. May soybeans down to a new recent low last Friday at $14.05 with support next at $13.80 and resistance at $15.00. The November contract also down to a new recent low last Friday at $12.47 ½, support next at $12.17 and resistance up at $13.30. May KC wheat recent low on March 10th at $7.72 ½ with a new recent high yesterday at $8.70 and resistance next at $9.04. May Chicago wheat a new recent low last week at $6.54 with resistance at $7.12 ½. May MPLS wheat a new contract low on March 10th at $8.14 and recovering since to test nearby resistance yesterday around $8.80. May soybean meal hit a new contract high on March 7th at $498 down to a new recent low last week at $435.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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