Date: August 22nd, 2018
Only a few hundred head of fat cattle confirmed so far this week in the North at $172 dressed, $2 to $3 lower than last week. Fed cattle exchange online auction later this morning with 359 head consigned compared to last week’s 488 head of which none sold.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/21/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
1,500 5,968 5,223
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released tomorrow 08/22/18 ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves were lightly tested, however where comparable sales could be noted cattle sold with a higher undertone.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Auction Report for 8/20/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
4,144 6,906 4,342
Compared to last week: Feeder steers trading mostly 1.00- 3.00 higher on a lighter test. Feeder heifers 5.00-6.00 higher. 550-600 lb. calves 1.00-2.00 lower, lighter calves not well tested. Demand good. Quality plain to average. Unseasonably cooler temperatures along with heavy
rainfall has hampered livestock movement.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 08/20/2018
Receipts: 2,012 Last Week: 2,360 Year Ago: 1,536
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-7.00 higher. Heifers 3.00 lower. Quality good. Demand good. 21 percent of the receipt totals were cattle over 600 lbs. while 38 percent of the total receipts were heifers. Slaughter cows 2.00-4.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 2.00-3.00 higher.
China’s COFCO acknowledged they have imported pork form Chile and EU as US pork is too high priced with current tariffs in place. They also stated they are only seeing limited impact form the African swine fever outbreak yet this morning another 14K+ head were culled and inspections have been stepped up at other facilities.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 119,000 head, matching last Tuesday and up 1,000 from a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 467,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 22,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values weak on Choice and higher on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings for a total of 110 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__213.57 -.41
Select Cutout__204.08 +1.79
CME Feeder Index:__149.43 -.23
CME Lean Hog Index.__50.71 -.80
Pork Carcass Cutout__66.19 -.99
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__39.46 -.83
National Wtd Avg Live__ 32.12 +.40, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__39.43 -.75
USDA reports California dairy production conditions in recent months have been very poor, likely due to extreme hot temperatures. July data showing only 61.1# per day per cow, 98.2% of a year ago and 96.3% of the previous month. The other major dairy states followed were not impacted as much as for California.
U.S. egg production totaled 9.10 billion during July 2018, up 2% from last year. Production included 7.90 billion table eggs, and 1.20 billion hatching eggs, of which 1.12 billion were broiler-type and 84.0 million were eggtype. The average number of layers during July 2018 totaled 385 million, up 3% from last year.
Cattle On Feed Industry Estimates for Friday, August 24, 2018 report
Avg Estimates Prev Rpt
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On Feed August 1 105% 104%
Placements during July 106% 101%
Marketings in July 105% 101%
August live cattle recent high back on August 6th at $111.10 with the higher trend still in place since mid-May. Support at $107 with the next resistance level around $112. August feeders still carrying a lower trend for over a month now finding support last week just above $148. September also trending lower since topping out at $155 on July 18th with support from $147.50 to $147.20. October lean hogs bottomed out at $47.82 back on August 9th with this week’s high up at $59.50. The first line of support is at $55.70 then $51 with resistance at $60 then $62.
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Grains were lower for most of yesterday even with a lower US$ and crop conditions lower Monday afternoon. These markets recently seem to be only triggered by headline news stories either about trade or world supply. Wheat has given back all of last week’s gains as Russia is now stating there will be no taxes or curbing of exports yet and they actually released some addition stocks from state reserves for sale. Weather this week is beneficial to the fall crops with the forecasts calling for hot and dry to follow these recent soaking rains. Corn and soybeans feeling pressure this week as the Pro Farmer crop tour moves across the country. Please take the actual data with a grain of salt, the best advice I have when seeing or hearing the data is compare the verbal comments vs. a year ago. The comments such as consistency in the Western Corn Belt vs. variability in Eastern Corn Belt have some importance. The soybean pod counts so far are fantastic which leads me to believe more and more that we will see record yields. Reuters survey results yesterday show 2018/19 Brazilian soybean acres planted at 36.18 million hectares, a record amount and up +3.2% over the previous season. The survey also shows a production forecast at 119.76 MMT, USDA is already at 120.5 MMT.
Overnight, grains continued under pressure with soybeans and wheat 5 to 7 lower and corn following at 2 lower.
Private estimates on wheat this morning saying the French soft wheat crop is seen at 34.2 MMT down from 36.6 MMT last year yet exports should remain near 8 MMT. Russian exports are estimated at 31.5 MMT down from 42 MMT last year but USDA last projected that at 35 MMT. Ukraine also reporting that milling quality wheat is only 40 to 45% of this year’s production down from last year’s 55%.
The heaviest rains over the next 7 days forecasted for the Great Lakes with scattered rains expected in KS and MO now as well. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing normal to below normal precipitation expect for the northern Border States. Temperatures are forecasted above normal for the Plains and eastern half of the US with below normal west.
September corn with support around $3.52 and resistance at $3.74. December corn with a low last week at $3.66, resistance at $3.88. 50% retracement from the high in May to the low in July is right at $3.90, 62% just above $3.99. November soybeans down to $8.51 ¼ for a low last week with resistance at $9.14 and $9.22. September KC wheat breaking through support levels overnight with the next at $5.22, resistance up at $5.68 then $5.98. September Chicago wheat right at support levels now with the next around $5.10, resistance up at $5.63 and $5.93.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener / Alex Gasper
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
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