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Meat complex trade was fairly erratic on Thursday with the live and feeder cattle markets closing mixed on both sides of unchanged. Oddly enough, some of the feeder months were up close to $1 in the face of a few contracts finishing lower on the day as well. Hogs were solid red at the close, with net changes ranging from single digits lower to as much as $1 lower on the December. Weekly export sales data was crazy in both markets and along with some wild numbers, I don’t think either market showed even an ounce of reaction to the report. Case in point, net beef sales were a net negative 29,100 mt’s from more cancellations than new business. Net weekly pork sales for the…

Date: October 9th, 2019 Cattle futures were mixed yesterday still looking for direction this week as lean hogs followed up a limit lower day Monday but trading triple digits higher yesterday. Some excitement may have been from the positive news on the trade front as China should be sending additional negotiators than previously expected for the next round of talks. Most are still reporting that China is ready for a partial trade agreement but still not ready for a broad or complete one. Cash feedlot trade fairly quiet so far this week with a few hundred head moving in the North at $170 dressed, steady with a week ago. Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle - Carthage, MO Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/7/2019 Total Receipts:…

More than a little irony behind all the commotion going on within the cattle industry with different producer groups butting heads and the common theme behind the madness is beef packers manipulating markets. I’m not going to choose sides in the producer group bickering, I’ll just casually observe from the outside looking in. The irony is based on the peak of that excitement being accompanied by a futures market that’s actually acting way more rational now than it has in months. Product trade is back to price levels that are really close to fair market value versus other competing meats like pork and poultry. Negotiated cash has been in a solid uptrend for several weeks and futures finally got back to levels over the last…

Date: October 7th, 2019 Livestock futures were mixed to end the week but mostly lower for the week except for nearby live cattle. Cash feedlot trade was higher again last week. Trade in the South at $106 to $107 live, $3 to $4 higher than the week previous and trade in the North at $165 to $170 dressed, steady to $5 higher. Beef exports continue to hold below a year ago which is concerning to a market needing to expand demand while pork exports exceed both a year ago and the 5-year average. Sales these past 2 weeks have topped 30,000 MT, China is starting to buy for 2020 already and accumulated year to date shipments to China have now surpassed 200,000 MT compared to…

Grain and oilseed trade was disappointing yesterday because we were coming off of two days of solid upward price movement in corn and soybeans and then a very abrupt halt to the active buying. Prices didn’t set back much, but there was solid red ink across everything at the finish. In soybeans, the 8 am daily export announcements yesterday included a 464k mt sale of US soybeans to China, which is obviously bullish news, but it got zero following when the market opened for the day trade. Corn, beans and KC wheat were all in the 4-5 lower range at the finish. Chicago wheat was knocking at the door of 10 lower. MGEX was down around 3c across most contracts. Following Monday’s hard bull run…

Date: October 2nd, 2019 Livestock futures traded mixed but mostly under more pressure yesterday with corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat higher but KC and MPLS wheat lower. Cash feedlot trade only reported a few hundred head in the Western Corn Belt at $165 dressed so far this week, steady with a week ago. Later this morning the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held with 846 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,533 head of which none sold. December lean hogs have tested but unable to break through the lower trend that has been in place since mid-April. We are over $12 higher from the recent low earlier this month but they still a very bipolar futures contract right now. Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder…

Following a decisively bearish Quarterly Hog and Pig report from Friday, the initial reaction yesterday morning was appropriately bearish with quotes in the vicinity of $1 lower, but the end result based on the futures close was polar opposite. Front month October hogs were just mildly higher, but the Dec and Feb contracts were up more than $2 and April was over $1 higher. The total inventory was up 3% from last year, breeding herd numbers were up 2% and market hog totals were up 4%. All of those numbers were also above the pre-report estimates, along with it being the biggest Sept 1 inventory since Hog and Pig reports started being released. There was a daily kill tally last week of 490,000 head and…

Date: September 30th, 2019 Triple digit gains for cattle futures to end the week which helped pull lean hog futures higher nearby. Fats are now up $12+ from lows earlier this month but still have over a dollar to fill the gap left from the limit down day after the Tyson plant fire over a month and a half ago. Feeders are up $13 to $16 from low to high so far this month, no gaps remaining and looking to test resistance around the $142 to $144 area. Cash feedlot trade last week was reported at $103 live Southern Plains, $2 higher than the week previous but still some $8 under a year ago. Northern trade is still pulling in higher money with Nebraska trading…

Following Friday’s bullish COF numbers, there wasn’t any hint of fade the report-type action that sometimes goes on in the meat complex. The bullishness of the report came from placements last month being 3.5% lower than the trade estimates and 9 points under last year and that helped pull the On Feed total on September 1 down to 1% below last year at the same time. The reaction was a very appropriate day of strong gains that pushed the front three months in live cattle up over the $2 higher mark. Feeders were up more than $2 on all but the front end September contract. That rally left the front month October live futures $4.57 under where it closed the day of the Tyson fire,…

Date: September 23rd, 2019 Cash feedlot trade was higher last week with live sales reported at $101 to $103, up $2 to $3 from the week previous and dressed trade from $160 to $165, up $5. African swine fever now discovered in the Philippines and Russia along with the Chinese trade talks not going as well as week ago pressured livestock futures to end the week. The Cattle on Feed report was friendly after the close with 99% on feed vs. a year ago and August placements down to 91% compared to pre report estimates at 95%. This is the fourth consecutive month for placements below a year ago. YTD Cattle Slaughter through August was released on Thursday with heifer slaughter 8.6% above a year…