Date: September 25, 2024
Livestock and grain futures all opened higher and held gains until midday. In the end, the front months for cattle and hog futures settled slightly lower with moderate gains for all deferred contracts. Only very light volume cash feedlot trade so far this week in the North at $184.50 live.
A full recap of last week’s trade showed feedlots selling 86,956 head of negotiated cash fat cattle with nearly 90% for nearby delivery. Full range traded from $177 to $190 live, weighted average at $184.13 which is nearly $2 higher than the week previous and $286 to $303 dressed, weighted average $290.66 just $.36 higher than the week previous.
Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report coming out Thursday with expectations for all hogs as of September 1st right at 100% vs. a year ago, hogs kept for breeding down to 98% and marketing up to 101%.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/23/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,409 Last Week: 6,742 Last Year: 8,296
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and steer calves unevenly steady except for 4 weight steers 20.00 higher. Three buyers had an order for 4 weight steers. Feeder heifers and heifer calves steady to 5.00 lower except 4 weight heifers 6.00 higher. Demand moderate. 7 weight index steers averaged $249 to $251 and 8 weights averaged $232 to $240.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/23/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 3,157 Last Week: 3,095 Last Year: 1,175
Compared to the sale last week: Limited number of light steers in the previous sale. Steers 850-900 lbs 3.00-4.00 lower, 950 lbs mostly 1.00- 3.00 higher. Heifers 650 lbs 8.00 higher, 750 lbs 2.00 lower, 800-900 lbs mostly steady to 3.00 higher. A large portion of the auction consisted of load lots of mostly yearling calves. 8 weight index steers averaged $241 to $250.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/23/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 5,042 Last Week: 8,310 Last Year: 6,587
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 2.00-8.00 higher with feeder heifers selling from 5.00 lower to 8.00 higher. Supply was moderate with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $248 to $254 and 8 weights averaged $243 to $250.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/24/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,148 Last Week: 1,981 Last Year: 3,383
Compared to last week, feeders steers and heifers sold 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold 6.00-12.00 higher with spots 16.00 higher. Demand was very good on a moderate supply. The market was very active with the best demand that has been seen in several weeks. The quality was above average with several larger drafts of long-time weaned and vaccinated calves.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, matching last week but down 3,174 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 487,000 head, up 13,000 compared to a week ago but down 3,155 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to higher on Choice but lower on Select on good demand with 140 loads sold.
Choice +.08 @ 301.89, Select -.92 @ 286.87
CME Feeder Cattle Index 244.02
CME Lean Hog Index 84.21
Pork Carcass Cutout -.18 @ 93.96
October live cattle hitting another new recent high on Tuesday at $183.90 with less than a week until deliveries and futures have closed down the cash premium. There’s strong support at $178 and resistance next up at $189. September feeders expire tomorrow and have consolidated at $245 to $244. October forward contracts continue to make new recent highs with October up to $246.17 yesterday, support at $237.50 and resistance next $250.55. October lean hogs still chopping sideways with resistance at $83.37 and support at $78.20.
All grains again opened higher yesterday, led once again by soybeans. Those double digits gains did not hold into the close though and both corn and wheat settled with minor losses. Corn was able to hit a new 2-month high before reversing lower. Soybeans hit new highs as well now looking to test resistance from mid-July some $.20+ above Tuesdays’ highs. Rosario Grain Exchange released their first 2025 crop production estimates for Argentina at 52.6 MMT for soybeans and 52 MMT for corn, USDA already at 51 MMT for each. U.S. harvest delayed some this week with spotty wet conditions yet harvest selling still keeping pressure on the grains.
Grains steady to lower overnight with corn finishing 2 lower, soybeans 6 to 8 lower and wheat 1 to 3 lower. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ lower and energies lower with crude oil down $.80/barrel. USDA reported a private sale of 180,000 MT or 7.1 MBU of corn for delivery to Mexico. Weekly EIA report out later today with expectations for another 2% cut in production due to seasonal maintenance yet stocks still could remain steady from lower exports.
Next Monday will be the end of the month and end of the quarter along with USDA Wheat Production and Quarterly Stocks reports. The average trade estimate for all wheat production at 1.966 BBU vs. 1.982 from USDA in August due to expectations for lower winter wheat production. Quarterly stocks for both corn and soybeans will be the old crop ending stocks with the average trade estimate for each slightly higher than the current USDA estimate. USDA has old crop or 2023/24 corn ending stocks at 1.812 BBU vs. the average trade estimate at 1.844. USDA’s old crop soybeans ending stocks estimate at 340 MBU vs. the average trade estimate at 351 MBU.
Temps back above seasonal norms through the end of the week and heavy rains expected in the Southeast up into the ECB heading into the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps across the U.S. with above normal precipitation for portions of the Southeast and below normal from the Mountain West into the WCB.
December corn breaking through nearby resistance yesterday for a new recent high at $4.18 ¼ with resistance next at $4.23 and support at $4.01. November soybeans again up to a new recent high yesterday at $10.58 ¼ with resistance next at $10.80 and support at $10.11. December Chicago wheat up to a new 2-month high on September 13th at $5.98 ¾ with resistance next at $6.15 and support at $5.64. December KC wheat also a new 2-month high on the 13th at $6.04 ¼ with resistance next at $6.14 and support at $5.61. December MPLS wheat a new recent high last week at $6.37 ¾ with support at $6.03. October soybean meal spiking up for a new recent high yesterday at $332.5 with resistance next at $333.40 and support at $312.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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