Date: September 25, 2023
New highs midweek for live cattle and new recent highs for lean hogs while feeders dipped to test nearby support levels. Steady, but also at the top end of previous week’s range, with negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week in the South at $183 live and in the North at $186 live and $292 to $293 on a dressed basis. After the close, USDA Cattle on Feed report was neutral, as in line with expectations, but still overall friendly. Cattle on feed as of September 1st total 11.1 million head which is 98% vs. a year ago. August placements totaled 2.0 million head which is 95% of a year ago and marketings totaled 1.88 million head or 94% vs. last year.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…October Live Cattle +$.15, December -$.47, September Feeder Cattle -$3.27, October -$4.67, October Lean Hogs -$1.60, December -$2.92, Choice Boxed Beef -$2.38 at $303.33 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.57 at $97.26.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/17/2023 – 9/23/2023
Receipts: Current Week 32,191 Last Week 36,446 Last Year 31,385
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady. Demand good for feeder cattle despite a week which contained several days of negative trading cattle futures. Steer calves steady. Heifer calves 2.00-5.00 lower. The fall calf run is in full swing with several un-weaned calves included. Demand moderate to good for calves. More spotty rain showers moved across the state this past week. Farmers dodging these showers as they begin to drill wheat.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 625,000 head, down 7,000 from the week previous and down 46,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 515 million pounds with year to date now -5.1% vs. last year as slaughter remains -4.3%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,537,000 head, up 6,000 compared to the week previous but down 18,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 523.2 million pounds last week with year to date now only +0.1% vs. last year and slaughter remains +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 98 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.40 @ 303.33, Select Cutout +1.43 @ 280.43
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 253.22, Lean Hog Index @ 87.08
Pork Carcass Cutout -1.49 @ 97.26
October live cattle again hitting a new contract and all-time spot high last week at $187.45 with support at $183.50. September feeders into its last week of trading with the contract and all-time spot high back on September 15th at $257.50 and support at $252.80. The October contract hit a new contract high on the 15th as well at $264.67 with support at $257.50 then around $253. October lean hogs holding a higher trend since mid-August with resistance $86.75 and support at $80.95.
Grains held small gains on Friday but mostly lower overall for the week. Corn the only the finish the week in positive territory. Some friendly news as Brazil’s CONAB dropped next year’s corn production estimate noting domestic prices still hovering in the low $3’s. KC wheat hit new recent lows and all short-term higher trends now taken for all wheat contracts and soybeans. Harvest progress should have slowed down some over the weekend as scattered rains swept through many areas. Harvest should be in full swing for most later this week. Hot and dry weather continues to be a topic as Brazil begins planting.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 9/19 again mostly sellers and still holding net short positions in all three wheat markets along with corn while cutting their net long position in soybeans in half.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn +$.01, March +$.01 ¾, November Soybeans -$.44, January -$.42 ¼, December Chicago Wheat -$.24 ¾, March -$.23, December KC Wheat -$.35 ¼, March -$.33, December MPLS Wheat -$.18 ½, March -$.16 ¾, October Soybean Meal -$5.4/T, December -$6.3/T.
Grains were mixed overnight and traded both sides of unchanged. Corn finished the overnight steady to ½ lower, soybeans 1 to 2 lower and wheat 1 lower to 3 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies steady to lower with crude oil down $.30/barrel. USDA announced a private sale this morning of over 1.66 MMT or 65.4 MBU of corn for delivery to Mexico with 41.3 MBU for this marketing year and 24.1 MBU for next year.
It is another slow start for the grains this week as new news is lacking. Russian airstrikes hit the port of Odessa again overnight reportedly damaged more infrastructure and grain facilities in Ukraine. The Lower Mississippi River is still dealing with low water levels and the Panama Canal is still backed up.
Scattered rains currently in the Northern Corn Belt that will move into the Eastern Corn Belt but every else looks warm and dry this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Rockies to the East Coast with below normal temps West and above normal moisture across the Plains and Western Corn Belt with below normal moisture for the eastern half of the U.S.
December corn holding the lower trend with the recent low last week at $4.67 ¾ and nearby resistance at $4.83. November soybeans hitting a new recent low overnight at $12.90, the August low at $12.82 ¼ and nearby resistance at $13.22. December Chicago wheat contract low on September 12th at $5.70 with resistance at $6.07 ½. December KC wheat a new recent low overnight at $7.03 with resistance around $7.50. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on September 5th with resistance at $7.91. October soybean meal with support at $383 and resistance around the $400 level.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.