Date: January 8, 2024
Livestock futures mixed to finish out the week but early week strong gains in cattle futures helped to push both fats and feeders higher week over week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade as of mid-afternoon Friday was very light in TX and KS and $172 live, steady to $1 lower than the week previous. Northern trade was reported throughout the week at better volume from $173 to $175 live and $274 to $278 dressed, all steady to $2 higher than the week previous.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…February Live Cattle +$2.07, April +$1.15, January Feeder Cattle +$.82, March +$1.05, February Lean Hogs +$2.02, April +$1.52. Choice Boxed Beef -$12.55 at $277.16 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$.56 at $84.20.
No cattle auction summaries with most barns closed again last week. There will be a National Feeder Cattle Summary from USDA later today and barns open back up, weather depending, today as well.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 556,000 head, up 48,000 from the week previous but down 9,000 from last year. Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,381,000 head, up 160,000 compared to the week previous and up 35,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 106 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.26 @ 277.16, Select Cutout +.71 @ 259.53
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 228.09, Lean Hog Index @ 65.85
Pork Carcass Cutout on Friday -.30 @ 84.20
February live cattle holding a month long higher trend since the recent low at $162.40. Nearby support is at $167.35 with last week’s recent high up to $172.65 then resistance at $173.87 and $179. January feeders also holding a higher trend and a new recent high last Friday at $226.87 before reversing lower. Nearby support is at $220 with resistance next up around $230. February lean hogs still holding the long term lower trend with a new contract low last week at $64.57 then reversing sharply higher to end the week and nearby resistance up around $72.
Grains last week led lower by the soy complex as Brazil’s weather stabilized, actually showed improvement. Recent rains and continued wet forecasts for central Brazil were the primary driving force last Friday. Beans and meal reached down for new recent lows and pulled corn futures into new contract lows to end the week. News was very light which is typical for the first week of the New Year and coming off the two week holiday trading pattern. Weekly export sales on Friday were not helpful either as a new marketing year low for beans at only 7.4 MBU and for corn at 14.5 MBU. Wheat futures actually held small gains on Friday but still were in the red for the week. Export sales for wheat also very weak at only 4.8 MBU.
Weekly closes in the grains…March Corn -$.10 ½, May -$.10 ¾, March Soybeans -$.41 ¾, May -$.43, March Chicago Wheat -$.12, July -$.10 ¾, March KC Wheat -$.14, July -$.10 ¾, March MPLS Wheat -$.11 ½, May -$.12 ¼, January Soybean Meal -$16.6/T, March -$14.1/T.
Overnight trade was steady to lower with corn into new contract lows, beans again into new recent lows yet the leader lower was Chicago wheat at 12 to 14 lower. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 2 lower, beans 5 to 9 lower and KC wheat 9 to 11 lower. Pressure on the grains continues to come from improved weather in Brazil and overall a lack of export demand. Outside markets are not helping either with equities weaker, US$ steady this morning but rallying so far this year and energies lower this morning with crude oil down $2.60/barrel.
This week is filled for new data. The weekly export inspections out later today and weekly export sales and energy report later this week. Brazil’s CONAB will update crop production estimates on Wednesday. USDA will release the January Crop Production, U.S. and world updates on supply and demand, Quarterly Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings all on Friday morning. Markets are very oversold and it wouldn’t surprise me to see some short covering ahead of Friday’s reports.
Winter weather for the Plains this week but the heaviest precip forecasted for the eastern half of the U.S. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps and above normal moisture for the majority of the country, below normal precip only in the Southwest.
March corn down to a new contract low with support on the weekly chart still at $4.47 and nearby resistance at $4.80. March soybeans down to a new recent low again, the lowest since mid-June, with support next around $12.40 and resistance at $12.80 then $13.28. March Chicago wheat very choppy, sideways trading over the past month with support at last week’s low at $5.91 ¼ and resistance at $6.40. March KC wheat also choppy, but holding a lower trend with the contract low at $5.95 and resistance at $6.48. March MPLS wheat very similar to KC with the contract low at $6.97 ½ and resistance around $7.30. March soybean meal holding a three-month long lower trend with support at $365 and resistance at $397.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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