Date: November 8, 2023
Cattle futures again sharply lower as lean hogs held mild gains on Tuesday. Nearby support levels were taken out for live cattle which unleashed additional selling for both fats and feeders. Only very light volume cash fed cattle trade so far this week in NE at $180 live and $285 to $290 dressed, all other areas still at a standstill with no bids or offers yet. I would expect packers will be looking for additional volume this week after last week’s very low volume. Futures diving lower though would suggest lower cash unless feedlots can hold steady.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/6/2023 – Final
This Week: 7,508 Last Week: 2,680 Last Year: 7,555
Compared to last week feeder steers and feeder heifers sold 3.00-9.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $243 to $247 and 8 weights averaged $228 to $231.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/6/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,964 Last Week: 2,023 Last Year: 10,816
Compared to the last comparable market on 10/23/23: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady to 3.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold 3.00-9.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $235 to $243 and 8 weights averaged $230 to $232.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/6/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,843 Last Week: 1,005 Last Year: 3,407
Compared to last week: too light a test of calves last week for a market comparison. Light offering last week in yearlings, although there were several strings of 950 pound steers, which were steady to substantially higher today. Higher undertones in both steers and heifers today. Many load lots of both calves and yearlings. 8 weight index steers averaged $240 to $244.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/7/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,352 Last Week: 1,880 Last Year: 5,260
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves sold 3.00-6.00 lower with spots 10.00 lower. Yearlings were not well tested. Demand was light on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, matching last week but down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 489,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and matching a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on very good demand with 207 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -1.34 @ 300.38, Select Cutout -.88 @ 269.48
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 238.89, Lean Hog Index @ 76.44
Pork Carcass Cutout -3.84 @ 87.77
December live cattle recent low at $177.30 the first line of support, then the June low at $175.85, resistance at $185 then $188. November feeders breaking support and the October low yesterday with the next down at $230.40, the low from May, resistance at $242.75 then $253.85. December lean hogs hit a new contract low on October 20th at $65.40 and sharply higher since with nearby support at $70 and resistance next at $76.10.
Grains were mixed on Tuesday although almost all settled lower. We did hit new contract highs for soybean meal, new recent highs for soybeans and corn testing the lows again but supporting still holding. The USDA attaché report from Brazil dropped their corn production estimate from 135 MMT to 130 while Brazil’s CONAB in the low 120’s. Ongoing weather concerns and delayed soybean planting pushed beans into new recent highs that faded by midday. Winter wheat conditions improved in the Monday afternoon report, that provided the initial pressure on wheat futures yesterday.
Grains higher overnight with the soy complex again leading the way. Meal into new contract highs again overnight and beans reaching new recent highs. Chinese interest in U.S. soybeans the main chatter recently. USDA announced a slew of private export sales this morning…476,500 MT or 17.5 MBU of soybeans for unknown destinations, 433,000 MT or 15.9 MBU of soybeans to China and 270,000 MT or 10.6 MBU of corn to Mexico. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 4 higher, soybeans 10 to 16 higher and wheat 2 to 7 higher. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ higher and energies lower with crude oil down $.60/barrel.
USDA will update supply and demand tomorrow with little changes expected. The average trade estimate for U.S. corn yield at 173.2 BPA vs. 173.0 last month and ending stocks up to 2.13 BBU vs. 2.111 in October. Soybeans yield expected to stay the same at 49.6 BPA and ending stocks up to 222 MBU vs. 220 MBU last month. It will be interesting to see if USDA makes any adjustments to South American production estimates this early in their planting season.
U.S. weather still wide open this week to wrap up fall harvest for most. There are heavy rains in the forecast over this next week centered on the Gulf of Mexico and into the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the majority of the U.S., normal temps on both coasts, with above normal precipitation on the West Coast and in the Southwest and below normal from the Plains to the East Coast.
December corn still holding the support with the September low at $4.67 ¾ and tested now 4 times since. Nearby resistance is at $4.84 then the October recent high at $5.09 ½. January soybeans again hitting a new recent high shortly after the open at $13.84 ½ with resistance next at $13.88 then the August high at $14.20 and support at $13.25 then $12.98. December Chicago wheat still holding a short-term higher trend with support at $5.54 ½ and resistance at $6.04 ½. December KC wheat hitting a new recent low on October 31st at $6.25 ½, the contract low at $6.21 and resistance at $6.88. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on October 31st at $7.03 ¼ with resistance at $7.46. December soybean meal up to a new contract high again shortly after the open today at $462.8 with nearby support down at $422.
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