Date: October 30, 2023
Livestock futures were able to hold gains on Friday but cattle futures still had fairly large weekly losses. Live cattle again holding up better than feeders last week. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade though was mixed. Trade in the South started at $183, $1 to $2 lower than the week previous, but by late Friday trade volume picked up from $185 to $186 live, steady to $1 higher. Trade in the North from $183 to $186 live, $2 lower peak to peak, and dressed trade $3 to $5 lower from $290 to $292.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…October Live Cattle -$.27, December -$2.40, November Feeder Cattle -$5.32, January -$7.35, December Lean Hogs +$4.47, February +$3.07, Choice Boxed Beef +$2.19 at $307.57 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.57 at $86.40.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/22/2023 – 10/28/2023
Receipts: Current Week 22,421 Last Week: 29,239 Last Year: 28,895
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 7.00-12.00 lower. Feeder heifers 8.00-15.00 lower. Steer calves under 500 lbs. steady to 5.00 higher; over 500 lbs. 4.00-10.00 lower. Heifer calves 10.00-20.00 lower. Demand moderate at best but quality plain to average at most barns. Rain and cooler temperatures moving thru this week thus limiting demand for un-weaned calves.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 636,000 head, down 2,000 from the week previous and down 31,000 from last year. Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,614,000 head, up 4,000 compared to the week previous and up 50,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on good demand with 134 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +.72 @ 307.57, Select Cutout +.43 @ 280.12
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 239.73, Lean Hog Index @ 77.95
Pork Carcass Cutout +.67 @ 86.40
October live cattle expire tomorrow, rallying last week to converge with cash. December will then be the front month with a recent low last week at $177.30, a gap from $183.65 to $184.42, resistance at $188 and the contract high up at $192.05. November feeders trying to hold support with last week’s low at $234.22, the June low the next support at $233.52, resistance at $253.80 and the contract high at $268.25. December lean hogs hit a new contract low on October 20th at $65.40. The rally since looks more like a technical bounce than fundamentally supported with nearby resistance at $73.67.
Grains mixed on Friday with the soy complex again the leader higher. Soybeans and meal rallied on Friday but still weekly losses for beans while meal hit new contract highs. Rumors swirling that China is cancelling soybean purchase from Brazil due to shipping delays, yet we are still waiting to see if that means additional sales from the U.S. The very tight supplies in Argentina continues to support higher meal as they are the #1 meal exporter. Corn finished the week higher but losses early in the week have now taken out the short-term higher trend. Chicago wheat still holding a higher trend but KC wheat continues to be the leader lower and into new recent lows again on Friday. Cold and wet weather has delayed the U.S. fall harvest. Recent rains and more in the forecast for both Brazil and Argentina grain areas. Managed money or funds still holding a net long position in soybeans, but down to around 8k contracts. They are still net short over 100k corn contracts and over 90K wheat contracts.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn -$.14 ¾, March -$.13 ¾, November Soybeans -$.05, January -$.00 ¾, December Chicago Wheat -$.10 ½, March -$.11, December KC Wheat -$.27, March -$.23 ½, December MPLS Wheat -$.11, March -$.15, December Soybean Meal +$18.5/T.
Grains were again mixed overnight. Soybeans trying to extend last week’s rally, corn traded both sides of unchanged and wheat continues to slip lower. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 2 lower, soybeans 1 to 2 higher and wheat 6 to 8 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower and energies lower with crude oil down $1.50/barrel.
Cold weather shifts east through the country this week with mostly dry conditions expected over this next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps and precipitation across the majority of the country, below normal temps still present in the Northern border states and below normal precipitation only in the Southwest.
December corn again taking out the month-long higher trend last week with support at $4.77 and resistance at $4.89 then $5.09 ½. November soybeans have nearby support at $12.77 then the October low at $12.50 ½ with resistance at $13.18 ½. December Chicago wheat holding a higher trend this month with support at $5.63 and resistance at $6.04 ½. December KC wheat hitting a new recent low again overnight at $6.32 ¼ with resistance at $6.88. December MPLS wheat contract low on October 2nd at $7.07 ½ with resistance at $7.46. December soybean meal up to a new contract high last Friday at $448.40 with nearby support down at $412.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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