Date: October 9, 2023
Live cattle and lean hogs able to hold triple digit gains on Friday but feeders still under the most pressure. The nearby October contract again hitting a new recent low on Friday before reversing higher and down nearly $19 over these past few weeks. Fundamentals are still friendly yet outside market pressure and light volume lower cash fed cattle trade has provided pressure recently. Cash feedlot trade last week again began early in the week with trade in TX and KS reported at $182 live, down $1 from the week previous. Light trade only in NE at $183-$184 live, also $1 lower with dressed trade from $288 to $290, $4 to $6 lower.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…October Live Cattle -$1.12, December -$1.25, October Feeder Cattle -$4.10, November -$4.02, October Lean Hogs +$2.12, December +$1.80, Choice Boxed Beef +$1.23 at $302.01 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$4.01 at $93.22.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/1/2023 – 10/7/2023
Receipts: Current Week 24,282 Last Week: 29,151 Last Year: 40,461
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-6.00 lower. Feeder heifers 5.00-10.00 lower. Demand moderate for limited numbers of feeder cattle. Steer calves mostly steady. Heifer calves under 500 lbs 1.00-5.00 lower; over 500 lbs steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for calves. Lighter demand for un-weaned calves as we enter the dreaded month of October.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 628,000 head, up 16,000 from the week previous but down 41,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 519.2 million pounds with year to date remaining -5.2% vs. last year as slaughter is now -4.5%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,564,000 head, down 35,000 compared to the week previous and down 4,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 533.8 million pounds last week with year to date now +0.1% vs. last year and slaughter now +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate demand with 97 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +4.25 @ 302.01, Select Cutout +1.01 @ 275.78
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 250.41, Lean Hog Index @ 83.03
Pork Carcass Cutout -1.76 @ 93.22
October live cattle hit a new contract and all-time spot high on September 28th at $187.57 with support at $181.25 then around $180. October feeders contract high was back on September 15th at $264.67, down nearly $19 to last Friday’s low with support next at around $238 and nearby resistance at $255. October lean hogs expire later this week and seem content to hold the recent range bound trading from $79.30 to $84.12.
Grains pulled back on Friday but still were able to hold week over week gains. Corn futures are still holding a short-term higher trend and hopefully carving out a harvest low. Fall harvest should be wide open over this next week with rain in the forecast for the WCB late in the week. Wheat rally sparked on Thursday as a cargo headed for Ukraine’s Danube ports reported struck a Russian sea mine. Russia has also continued to hit Odessa and surrounding ports with airstrikes. Brazil is wet in the south which is delaying planting while both Argentina and Brazil central/western grain areas continue to be dry. There’s already chatter brewing that without significant rainfall, Argentine corn acres will be lower.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn +$.15 ¼, March +$.15 ½, November Soybeans -$.09, January -$.10, December Chicago Wheat +$.26 ¾, March +$.24 ½, December KC Wheat +$.10, March +$.10 ½, December MPLS Wheat +$.11 ¼, March +$.11 ½, October Soybean Meal -$8.3/T, December -$9.1/T.
Grains were steady to higher overnight with corn finishing 2 higher, soybeans 4 to 5 higher and wheat 6 to 8 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil up $3+/barrel. Crude down over $13 from the recent high but gapping higher overnight and trading $3+ higher due to Hamas attacks in Israel over the weekend. Banks are closed today and no government reports so export inspections are delayed until tomorrow morning and crop progress tomorrow afternoon.
Heavy rains now in the forecast from SD/NE to the Great Lakes later this week along with areas along the Gulf Coast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the western third of the U.S. and below normal temps central and eastern, centered on the Southeast, with above normal moisture only in the PNW and Northeast with the majority of the rest of the country forecasted to receive below normal precip.
December corn still holding the short term higher trend with support at $4.82 ½ and nearby resistance tested at $4.99 then $5.07 ½. November soybeans holding a lower trend since August with support at $12.56 ¾ and resistance at $13.07. December Chicago wheat hit a new contract low on September 29th at $5.40 with nearby resistance now being tested around $5.80. December KC wheat has support at $6.62 with resistance at $6.92. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low last Monday at $7.07 ½ with resistance around $7.36. October soybean meal down to a new low for the year last week at $360 and resistance around $380.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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