Date: October 2, 2023
All Ag futures were sharply lower on Friday focused solely on what looked like a government shutdown to start over the weekend. Luckily that was adverted as both the House and Senate approved a 45-day stop gate. All livestock futures were triple digits lower last Friday which locked in losses for the week. The front two months for lean hogs settled the daily limit lower with expanded limits in place today of $5.50. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report last week reported a total of 74.3 million head, slightly higher than a year ago but up 2% from June. The breeding herd though is now down 1.2% from a year ago. Cash feedlot trade last week got going by Tuesday at $183 live in the KS & TX, steady with the week previous, while trade in NE was $1 lower at $184-$185 live and $294-$295 dressed.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…October Live Cattle -$2.87, December -$3.42, October Feeder Cattle -$6.67, November -$8.62, October Lean Hogs -$1.32, December -$.40, Choice Boxed Beef -$2.55 at $300.78 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$.03 at $97.23.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/24/2023 – 9/30/2023
Receipts: Current Week 29,151 Last Week: 32,191 Last Year: 38,112
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 lower. Feeder heifers mostly steady. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle despite cattle futures selling lower. Stocker cattle sold 4.00-8.00 lower. Steer calves steady to 3.00 lower. Heifer calves 3.00-6.00 lower. Demand moderate for calves with many farmers busy in the field planting winter crops.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 612,000 head, down 13,000 from the week previous and down 55,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 505.1 million pounds with year to date now -5.2% vs. last year as slaughter is now -4.4%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,604,000 head, up 67,000 compared to the week previous and up 119,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 539.4 million pounds last week with year to date now +0.2% vs. last year and slaughter now +1.4%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on moderate to good demand with 131 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.73 @ 300.78, Select Cutout -1.40 @ 276.04
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 252.11, Lean Hog Index @ 88.58
Pork Carcass Cutout +.31 @ 97.23
October live cattle hit a new contract and all-time spot high last Thursday at $187.57 but took out nearby support on Friday with the next down at $182.57. October feeders now the front month hitting a new contract high back on September 15th at $264.67 with nearby support at $251.62 then around $248. October lean hogs month long higher trend was taken out last week with resistance at $86.12 and support around $78.
There was plenty for the grains to trade last Friday…end of the month, end of the quarter, government shut down pressure and the Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary. In the end, it was a slightly bearish soybean stocks report and government shutdown chatter that pushed fall crops lower and locked in weekly losses. September 1st soybean stocks were 23 MBU above the average trade estimate, 18 MBU higher than the latest supply and demand report yet still 2% lower than year ago at 268 MBU. Corn stocks at 1.36 BBU were down 17 MBU vs. the latest estimates and even more friendly compared to the average trade estimate which was looking for an increase of 52 MBU. Wheat stocks were slightly higher but in line with expectations. The Small Grains Summary though increased U.S. wheat production estimate by 78 MBU which rocked all wheat futures lower.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn -$.00 ½, March -$.00 ½, November Soybeans -$.21 ¼, January -$.19, December Chicago Wheat -$.38, March -$.33, December KC Wheat -$.47 ½, March -$.46 ¼, December MPLS Wheat -$.61 ¼, March -$.53 ¾, October Soybean Meal -$12.3/T, December -$4.6/T.
Grains were mixed overnight as corn and wheat held off from making new lows but soybeans continued lower. Corn finished the overnight 2 higher, soybeans 5 to 6 lower and wheat 5 to 7 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ higher and energies higher with crude oil up $.50/barrel. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China and 210,000 MT or 8.3 MBU of corn for delivery to Mexico.
A new “humanitarian” corridor is working so far allowing Ukraine to again ship grains out of the Black Sea. U.S. river level remain near record low levels hampering the already lackluster exports. Chinese markets and all business are closed this week.
Potentially heavy rains now in the forecast by midweek throughout the Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and below normal temps for the eastern half with only small pockets of above normal moisture in the PNW, Southwest and New England and below normal precip from the Northern Plains through the Corn Belt and down into the Southeast.
December corn still holding a 2-week long higher trend with support at $4.75 ½ and nearby resistance at $4.90. November soybeans hitting a new recent low overnight at $12.65 ¾ with support next at $12.56 ¾ and resistance at $13.22. December Chicago wheat hit a new contract low on Friday at $5.40 with resistance at $5.96. December KC wheat a new recent low on Friday at $6.62 with resistance around $7.20. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low overnight at $7.07 ½ with resistance around $7.70. October soybean meal down to a new 4-month low on Friday at $374.3 and resistance at $395.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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