Date: February 25th, 2020
Nearly every commodity on the board was in the red yesterday, gold the exception which was sharply higher, and U.S. stocks were sharply lower as investors responded to fresh concerns that coronavirus is not not contained2. As if Mondays weren’t tough enough already, the news of the coronavirus spreading into South Korea and Japan panicked the market along with updated data from the World Health Organization. A few fat cattle trade in Iowa yesterday at $119 live, $1 lower than last week and $187 dressed which is $3 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/24/2020
Total Receipts: 8,701 Last Week: 6,882 Last Year: 6,873
Compared to last week, steers and heifers under 600 lbs 2.00 to 6.00 lower, over 600 lbs 5.00 to 7.00 lower, 900 weight steers 7.00 to 10.00 lower. Demand moderate, supply heavy.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/24/2020
Total Receipts: 13,000 Last Week: 8,740 Last Year: N/A
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 6.00-10.00 lower. Feeder heifers trading mostly 7.00-9.00 lower. Steer calves 6.00-16.00 lower. Heifer calves 6.00-10.00 lower.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/17/2020
Total Receipts: 2,443 Last Week: 2,202 Last Year: 2,513
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 7.00-9.00 lower. Heifers 8.00-10.00 lower. Demand good. Quality mostly plain thru good. Slaughter cows mostly steady to 1.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 3.00-6.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 118,000 head, up 11,000 from last week and up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 495,000 head, up 10,000 compared to last week and up 139,000 compared to last year.
USDA Cold Storage Report released yesterday afternoon. Total frozen poultry supplies on January 31, 2020 were up 4% from the previous month and up 1% percent from a year ago. Total red meat supplies in freezers were up 5% from the previous month and up 3% from last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 2% from the previous month but down 4% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 8% from the previous month and up 11% from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 98 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__207.07 +1.98
Select Cutout__202.37 +.67
CME Feeder Index__141.02 -1.05
CME Lean Hog Index__55.91 +.04
Pork Carcass Cutout__66.32 +1.32
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__48.49 -.90
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__48.72 -1.03
February live cattle gapped lower, taking out last week’s low and into prices not seen since last October. Support next is right around $116.00 with resistance at $120.70. The February contract expires this Friday. April live cattle also gapping lower with support next at $114 and resistance up at $121. March feeders gapped lower but unable to reach below the nearby lows around $134 with resistance up at $141.50. April lean hogs gapped lower, taking out the higher trend that had held since the first of this month. Support is at $63 then $61 with resistance up at $68.25.
Corn export inspections improved to 35.9 MBU for the week ending February 20th but still well below the average needed per week. Marketing year to date is now at 521 MBU, down 47% from the previous year. Soybean inspections totaled 21.8 MBU, below the average needed for the first time. Marketing year to date inspections at 1.061 BBU, up 15% from the previous year. Wheat inspections totaled 15.1 MBU and remain below the average needed weekly to reach USDA’s export estimate of 1 BBU. Marketing year to date Inspections for now total 667 MBU, up 10% from the previous year.
Markets stabilizing overnight, grains were mixed with corn 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 2 to 4 higher and wheat steady to 4 lower.
Only a few more days this month which sets the spring crop insurance price for the Fall 2020 crops. First notice day for March grain contracts is also this Friday, please remember to have long positions rolled by Thursday, short positions you may hold a little longer but the March contracts will have no daily limits and volume is getting thin.
South Korea very active overnight buying a couple cargoes of optional origin corn along with 1 cargo already designated to originated from the U.S. No USDA private export sales announced this morning.
Much below normal temps sweep through the Corn Belt later this week with more heavy rains in the forecast for the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing mostly above normal temps except in the Rockies and Southwest with above normal precipitation for all except on the coasts.
March corn breaking the long term range bound trade down to $3.70 for a low yesterday. The contract low is down at $3.65 ¾ from mid-September with resistance from $3.80 to $3.85. March soybeans reversing lower after holding a higher trend so far this month yet not taking out the recent low at $8.68 ¾ with resistance from $9.00 to $9.02. March KC wheat holding the higher trend going back to early September with support $4.37 and resistance up at $4.86. March Chicago wheat breaking the higher trend into new 2 months lows with support next at $5.16 and resistance at $5.70. March soybean meal hit a new contract low yesterday at $284.80 with resistance around $295.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700