Date: September 8th, 2021
Livestock futures finished yesterday mostly triple digits lower, all grains lower, along with equites, energies and precious metals. Cattle futures did open higher yesterday with news that Brazil had confirmed two cases of atypical mad cow disease and shut down exports for at least 10 days. Beef and pork prices continuing lower providing some of the pressure but in general, yesterday’s trade looked like a typical Monday of the past few weeks just falling on Tuesday with markets coming out the 3-day holiday weekend. Uncertainty is a key term quoted which typically leads to a bearish undertone with COVID still spreading and the recent turmoil in Afghanistan.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/7/2021
This Week: 2,330 Last Week: 2,550 Last Year: 2,624
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded unevenly steady from 3.00 lower to 3.00 higher. Yearling steers traded mostly steady while yearling heifers were not well tested. Demand was good on a moderate supply. Feeder cash prices for long-time weaned calves remained strong today in spite of the downward slide of the cattle futures. Discounts on bawling or short weaned calves are growing as night time temperatures dropped in to the 50’s, signaling that fall is quickly approaching.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, matching last week and up 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 481,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and up 13,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continuing lower on moderate demand with 109 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__335.19 -1.23
Select Cutout__301.90 -2.23
CME Feeder Cattle Index__157.37 +.20
CME Lean Hog Index__99.30 -.76
Pork Carcass Cutout__105.67 -2.48
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__87.56 -1.29
October live cattle continuing the free fall, now over $9 lower since a new contract high back on August 24th. The long term higher trend lines taken out and into a new 3-month low yesterday with support next around $123 and resistance around $128. September feeders also breaking the higher trend that has held since early May and down over $13 since the new contract high on August 23rd. Support right at $155 with a gap from June down to $154.07 and resistance around $163. October lean hogs still chopping sideways with support at $88 and resistance at $91.40 with the contract high at $97.97 from June 10th.
Both corn and soybeans finished yesterday double digits lower and near their daily lows. Wheat futures held up the best in massive selloff but still were not able to hold early morning gains. The latest 6-10 day weather outlook still holding the above normal temps but did add some moisture in from the Gulf to the Great Lakes.
Export inspections were light as expected though with the LA export facilities still trying to get back up and running. Chatter yesterday indicated it could take nearly a month to get back up and running full speed through the Gulf. The weekly recap was split between the old and new marketing years for the fall crops. The old crop corn export estimate by USDA at 2.775 BBU still looks to be too high as YTD inspections plus Census adjustments are still some 60 MBU short. Grain sorghum looks to right on while soybean exports could be adjusted higher in this Friday’s monthly supply and demand update. Wheat inspections totaled 14 MBU with the average weekly need at 15.7 MBU.
USDA’s crop progress and conditions after the close showed corn conditions nationwide reduced by 1% while soybean conditions improved by 1%. Fall crop progress right in line to slightly ahead of average. Winter wheat planted reported for the first time this fall at 5% nationwide which is 2% ahead of the 5-year average.
Overnight, corn and soybeans recovering while wheat trade both sides of unchanged. Corn finished the overnight 3 higher, soybeans 7 to 9 higher and wheat 3 lower to 1 higher.
Egypt tendering for wheat today, cheapest offers coming in from Ukraine followed by Romania, France and Russia. Stats Canada reporting quarterly stocks this morning with all wheat stocks higher than expectations at 5.705 MMT. USDA will update supply and demand this Friday morning with average trade estimates for both corn and soybean production and ending stocks higher than a month ago but wheat ending stocks expected to be slightly reduced.
The Lower Mississippi locations are loading barges and the Gulf is bidding for grain again. USDA announced a private sale of 106,000 MT or 3.9 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China.
Rains over the past 24 hours isolated to the Great Lakes and ECB bringing some hail and high winds with it. Temps warm back up across the Plains for the balance of this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for all except the Northern Border States with below normal moisture for the western half of the U.S. and above normal from the Gulf up to the Great Lakes and New England.
December corn breaking the higher trend line support last week but still above the spike lows in May and July from $5.07 to $5.00 ¼ with resistance up at $5.50 to $5.60. November soybeans holding support at $12.70 with resistance at $13.37. December KC wheat holding support last week just below the $7 area with resistance at $7.35. December Chicago wheat a new recent low last week at $7.05 ½ with resistance at $7.45. December MPLS wheat holding support at $8.90 with resistance at $9.15 and the contract high last month at $9.37 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700