Date: September 20, 2023
Nearby October live cattle actually hit a new contract and all-time spot high on Tuesday before reversing lower. Feeders trading lower the past couple days and now testing nearby support. Lean hogs though are back to test nearby resistance. Beef prices continue to drift lower as pork prices remain a steady to higher trend. Another very quiet day in the country with the cash cattle trade at a complete standstill. Southern asking prices are starting out around $186 live but no bids as of close on Tuesday. USDA will report September Cattle on Feed this Friday with the average trade estimate at 98% vs. a year ago, August placements at 95% and marketings at 94%.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 7,286 Last Week: 10,556 Last Year: 6,647
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 2.00-5.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves 4.00-8.00 higher. Demand continues very good despite cattle futures trading lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $259 and 8 weights averaged $241-$253.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,344 Last Week: 4,814 Last Year: 4,507
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-6.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-7.00 lower, with the exception of 6 weight heifers, which were 3.00-5.00 higher. Quality good through average. Several un-weaned cattle and several light weight bulls were offered. Demand continues to be good. Slaughter cows 3.00-5.00 lower, except Breaker cows which sold steady.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,067 Last Week: 8,224 Last Year: 5,125
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 6.00-10.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $260-$271 and 8 weights averaged $244-$252.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/19/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,486 Last Week: 3,402 Last Year: 1,731
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers over 700 lbs sold 3.00-4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold 4.00-8.00 higher. Demand was very good on a moderate supply.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,086 Last Week: 2,307 Last Year: 1,798
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves sold with steady to higher undertones. Yearling feeder steers 650-750 lbs and 800-850 lbs 6.00 to 8.00 higher, other weights mostly steady. Yearling heifers sold with steady to higher undertones. Very good demand for spring born calves and for yearling steers and heifers as well. 8 weight index steers averaged $250-$264.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 127,000 head, matching last week but down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 484,000 head, up 7,000 compared to a week ago but down 1,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on good demand with 165 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -3.20 @ 302.12, Select Cutout -1.63 @ 281.78
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 252.87, Lean Hog Index @ 86.58
Pork Carcass Cutout +.17 @ 101.13
October live cattle again a new contract and all-time spot high on Tuesday at $187.45 with support at $182.50 then around $180. September feeders hit a new contract and all-time spot high last Friday at $257.50 with nearby support at $253 then at $250. October lean hogs holding a month-long higher trend with resistance at $85.60 then the August high at $86.75 and nearby support at $82.
Grains were mixed with tighter trading ranges than Monday. Nearby December corn hit yet another new low for the year as the lower trend has held for the past couple months yet was able to finish in positive territory on Tuesday. Soybeans also hit new recent lows but rallied back to only finish a penny lower. Wheat contracts were holding short term higher trends, but even those are now in jeopardy as the funds continue to be sellers. Harvest pressure of course can be some of the blame for lower fall crops. Cheaper world wheat values is the primary bearish factor for U.S. wheat futures. Fall harvest will continue across the majority of the U.S. this week as South American planting continues. Hot and dry temps though already being talked about in Brazil as the weather watching switches from North to South America. Brazil’s CONAB reported an initial forecast for the 2023/24 soybean production at 162.4 MMT compared to 154.6 MMT this past season but a corn crop of only 119.8 MMT this year vs. 131.86 MMT last year.
Overnight, all grains trading both sides of unchanged, again tight trading ranges. Corn finished the overnight 1 higher, soybeans 1 to 2 higher and wheat 5 to 7 higher. Outside markets have equites higher, US$ lower and energies lower with crude down $.70/barrel.
USDA announced a private sale this morning of 120,000 MT or 4.4 MBU of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Egypt tendering for wheat with Bulgaria the cheapest offered this week followed by France and Romania. South Korea purchased a cargo of wheat from Australia yet also have an active tender for U.S. wheat this week.
Rains chances increasing across the Plains and WCB starting this weekend and into early next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing well above normal temps for all except the West Coast and normal to above normal moisture for all except for small pockets of below normal in the Southwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Hot and dry now in the forecast for central and western Brazil over the next 10 days.
December corn down to a new recent low on Tuesday at $4.67 ¾ with resistance at $4.90 then $5.07 ½. November soybeans down to $13.08 for a new recent low yesterday with support at $13.03 and resistance around $13.70. December Chicago wheat hit a new contract low last week at $5.70 with resistance at $6.15. December KC wheat hit a new low for the year last week at $7.09 with resistance around $7.50 then $7.70. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on September 5th at $7.56 ¾ with resistance next at $7.91. October soybean meal has support at $383 and resistance at $403.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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