Date: September 11, 2023
Livestock futures finished out the week on a lower undertone but cattle futures did make new highs midweek. The October Live Cattle contract is now the spot contract and reached a new all-time spot high last week, yet the contract high is up at $185.75. Feeder cattle contracts all made new contract highs last week with the spot September contract also making a new all-time spot high. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the South reported $1 to $2 higher at mostly $180 live. Trade in the North though mostly steady to higher undertone at $182 to $184 live and $290 to $292 on a dressed basis, but very light volume.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…October Live Cattle +$3.07, December +$3.25, September Feeder Cattle +$3.50, October +$4.50, October Lean Hogs -$1.52, December -$.15, Choice Boxed Beef -$1.59 at $312.90 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$4.10 at $97.80.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/3/2023 – 9/9/2023
Receipts: Current Week 15,023 Last Week 32,546 Last Year 19,599
Compared to last week: Feeder cattle and calves lightly tested this holiday shortened week. All Monday sales closed for Labor Day. Demand very good for late week sales as cattle futures traded sharply higher this week. 7 weight index steers average $249.50 and 8 weights averaged $241 to $248.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 559,000 head, down 70,000 from the week previous and down 47,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 458.8 million pounds with year to date now -5.0% vs. last year and slaughter -4.2%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,234,000 head, down 147,000 compared to the week previous and down 18,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 461.1 million pounds last week with year to date only +0.2% vs. last year and slaughter +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate demand with 107 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.24 @ 312.90, Select Cutout -.12 @ 286.05
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 249.21, Lean Hog Index @ 86.27
Pork Carcass Cutout +3.59 @ 97.80
October live cattle breaking nearby resistance last week up to a new recent high at $184.52 with the contract high from July 20th at $185.75 and support right around $180. September feeders hitting a new contract and all-time spot high at $255.95 with nearby support at $250. October lean hogs choppy trade recently with resistance at $84.72 then the August high at $86.75 and support from $78.25 to the August low at $77.75.
Grains were mixed on Friday and for the week. Trading ranges were fairly tight all week. The fall crops seem to be a holding pattern awaiting the updated USDA crop estimates coming this Tuesday. Weather has most certainly become less threatening but harvest has ramped up early in many areas as the hot and dry finish has done some damage. Most of this of course will not be known until harvest hits full speed and of course from USDA until later in the year production estimates. Export demand remains a critical factor this year as soybean and grain sorghum sales are looking good but corn and wheat sales are light. Weekly export sales Friday morning showed wheat sales at expectations with a combined current and new crop total just above 14 MBU. Total commitments now at 41.3% of USDA’s projected exports of 700 mil bu. Corn and soybeans sales highlighted by old crop switching to new crop as the new marketing year begins.
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn +$.02 ¼, March +$.01 ½, November Soybeans -$.06 ¼, January -$.04 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.09 ¼, March +$.07 ½, December Chicago Wheat +$.00 ¼, March -$.00 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.11, March +$.09 ¼, October Soybean Meal +$1.5/T, December +$1.8/T.
Grains were mixed overnight with falls crops higher and wheat lower. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 higher, soybeans 5 to 6 higher and wheat 4 to 8 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ lower and energies higher with crude up $.50/barrel. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 185,000 MT of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines.
Grains look to be pretty calm again today ahead of tomorrow’s USDA update on supply and demand. Old crop stocks not expected to change much, but I could see USDA increasing exports for corn, soybeans and grain sorghum. New crop stocks expected to be lower than a month ago due to lower production estimates for both corn and soybeans. The average trade estimate for national corn yield is 173.5 BPA compared to 175.1 from USDA in August and average soybean yield at 50.2 BPA compared to 50.9 last month.
Fall temps this week across the nation with heavy rains centered on TX and OK. Only light and scattered rains expected this week across the rest of the nation except on the West Coast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the Northwest and below normal for the Southeast with below normal moisture across most major producing areas, only above normal in the Southwest and Northeast.
December corn still holding support so far with the August low down at $4.73 ½ and resistance at $5.07 ½. November soybeans down to a new recent low on Friday at $13.52 ½ with support at $13.32 and resistance at $14.09 ½. December KC wheat hit a new low for the year last week at $7.13 ¾ with resistance around $7.70. December Chicago wheat again down to a new contract low overnight with resistance at $6.00 then $6.43. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low last week at $7.56 ¾ with resistance at $7.87. October soybean meal has support at $392 with resistance at $423.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
IMPORTANT—PLEASE NOTE
This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.