Date: July 26, 2023
Tuesday was a mixed day for all the Ag futures. Grains started higher but finished the overnight lower which allowed cattle to take a crack at triple digits higher. Those gains did not hold though as grains crept back up, corn finishing with only minor losses, and feeders steady to lower nearby but holding small gains from March forward. Beef prices have stabilized yet there’s still some caution in testing last week’s contract highs for fats without seeing higher cash trade again this week. So far this week, only very light volume has been reported in IA at $188 to $190 live which is steady to $2 higher.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/25/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,602 Last Week: 2,163 Last Year: 1,707
Compared to last week, steers sold mostly steady and heifers sold steady to 5.00 higher. A good portion of the feeder offering was load lots of yearlings but some attractive consignments of weaned calves and some home raised yearlings were brought to town as well. Demand was good for a moderate supply. Scattered rains and the fact that producers have already culled so hard seems to have finally caught up at least for now and although a very nice run of cattle, it was a much more seasonal offering than the large numbers seen the last few months. 7 weight index steers averaged $254.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/25/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,515 Last Week: 1,977 Last Year: 2,018
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves sold 4.00-8.00 higher. Yearlings were not well tested however undertones were steady. Demand was good and improved throughout the day. 7 weight index steers averaged $240-$242.
Philip Livestock Auction – Philip, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/25/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,066 Last Report 5/9/23: 1,067 Last Year: 1,417
Sale not recently reported due to seasonally low supply, therefore no market comparison may be made. Good Demand for Many Long Strings, Load Lots, and Packages of Feeder Steers, Feeder Heifers, and tested Open Heifers. High quality, attractive offerings sold on a very strong, active market while lighter muscled offerings sold on a moderate market. 7 weight index steers averaged $253 and 8 weights averaged $248-$255.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, down 2,000 from last week and matching last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 477,000 head, up 17,000 compared to a week ago and up 9,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to higher on good demand with 149 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +.06 @ 304.22, Select Cutout +.56 @ 277.55
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 241.62, Lean Hog Index @ 105.26
Pork Carcass Cutout -4.15 @ 113.06
August live cattle continue to hold a long-term higher trend and hit a new contract high and all-time spot high last week at $182.97. Currently on a 4-day skid lower though with support at $177.50 then $175.20. August feeders also holding the long-term higher trend with the contract and all-time spot high hit back on July 12th at $251.30 with choppy trade since. Nearby resistance at $250 with support at $240.80 then $238. August lean hogs up to a new recent high yesterday at $101.97 with resistance next right around $105 and support down at $94.
Grains again mixed, but considerably less volatile than Monday’s trade which pushed wheat futures limit higher and caused expanded limits of $.90 to be in play for Tuesday. There were less reports of Russian attacks on Tuesday and the triple digit high temps are here in the U.S. this week and potentially again next week. Neither are new news so grains were able to calm down a bit. There are some 1-2” rains in the forecast from eastern SD through the Great Lakes. This will be a blessing for many, if it comes through, as MN saw the largest percentage drop in both corn and soybean conditions last week and both MI and WI have been near the worst ratings this entire season.
Grains were mixed again overnight, all trading within Tuesday’s range. Corn finished the overnight 7 lower, soybeans steady to 4 lower and wheat 12 to 22 lower. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ steady to lower and energies mixed with gas and heating oil up $.03 to $.04/gallon but crude $.80/barrel lower. USDA reported private sales for a total of 501,000 MT or 18.4 MBU of new crop soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.
The weekly EIA report will be out later this morning with ethanol production expected to be down 2% week over week. Ethanol prices have remained in essence flat while corn has rallied roughly $.30 this past week yet most are still forecasting positive margins.
Hazardous heat from the Plains to the East Coast still in the forecast now through August 3rd with only light rains expected in the Northern Plains and 1-2” rains around the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for all except in the Northeast with below normal moisture in the Southeast and above normal moisture for the western half of the U.S.
September corn has rallied $.90 in two weeks with a new recent high on Monday at $5.64 ½, resistance next at $5.90 and support at $5.22. December corn looks similar with a new recent high on Monday at $5.72 ¼, the low two weeks ago at $4.81, resistance next up around the $6 level and support at $5.31. August soybeans up to a new contract high on Monday at $15.37 with support at $15.00 then $14.80. November soybeans up to a new recent high on Monday at $14.35, the contract high is at $14.48 ¼, and support down at $13.85. September KC wheat breaking out of the 7-month long trading range and a new recent high yesterday at $9.29 ¾. Resistance is up at $9.45 then $9.60 with support at $8.60. September Chicago wheat also a new recent high yesterday at $7.77 ¼ with the next upside target at $8.18 ¾ and support at $6.93 ½. September MPLS wheat a new 8-month high yesterday at $9.47 ¾ with resistance at $9.70 and support around $8.80. August meal sharply higher the past two months, a new 4-month high overnight just shy of $460, the contract high at $472.10 and support around $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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