Date: July 19, 2023
Livestock futures were mixed yesterday with live cattle and only the front month lean hog contract holding triple digits gains while feeders posted triple digit losses. Equites were sharply higher supporting live cattle as was corn which pressured the feeders. No cash fed cattle yet this week. Friday will bring a couple fundamentally significant reports as USDA will release its monthly Cattle on Feed and semi-annual Cattle inventory. The average trade estimates looking for July 1 on feed and June placements at 98% vs. a year ago and June marketings at 95%.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,278 Last Week: 12,676 Last Year: 9,551
Compared to last week feeder steers sold unevenly from 4.00 lower to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher. Supply was moderate with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $241 and 8 weights averaged $231-$238.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/18/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,977 Last Week: 4,714 Last Year: 3,650
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were steady to 2.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves sold steady to 5.00 higher. Demand was moderate on a light supply. Excessive heat, where most feeders are headed, had buyers reluctant to purchase cattle with an excessive amount of flesh or hair. Rain across the area has been very erratic with some producers receiving over ten inches this past week while others received a trace or none at all.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/17/2023 – Final
This Week: 6,134 Last Week: 6,879 Last Year: 12,107
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady. Steer calves steady. Heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Market very uneven across all classes. Demand moderate to good. Quality average to attractive. Heat wave continues with temps reaching 100+ and heat indexes well above. 7 weight index steers averaged $242-$250 and 8 weights averaged $235-$240.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 127,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 472,000 head, up 2,000 compared to a week ago and up 10,00 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate demand with 123 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -2.10 @ 304.68, Select Cutout +.87 @ 276.61
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 238.45, Lean Hog Index @ 102.52
Pork Carcass Cutout -.03 @ 112.68
August live cattle hit a new contract high on Monday at $181.60 with the next upside target the all-time spot high from June at $182.87 and support at $175.20 then $173.42. August feeders up to a new contract and all-time spot high last week at $251.30 with nearby support at $243.50 then $240.80. August lean hogs have rallied over $27 since hitting the contract low back on May 26th with support around $94 and resistance at $100.75 then around $105.
Grains mostly higher yesterday, led by the corn market. Crop conditions did improve last week, most in line with expectations though. U.S. weather this week is mild but only light and scattered rains in the forecast for the Corn Belt. Next week though is becoming more concerning as above normal temps are in the forecast across the nation. Yes summertime temps are hot but when we talk above normal, that means potential for triple digit highs and lows holding above 70 degrees which does not allow the corn plant to rest. The other highlighted news was that just one day after not agreeing to continue the safe shipping deal in the Black Sea, Russia is back attacking ports in Ukraine.
Grains continued to rally overnight with corn finishing 23 to 24 higher, soybeans 19 to 27 higher and wheat 14 to 28 higher. Outside markets have equities, US$ and energies all steady to higher.
Rains yesterday stretched from SD down into the Southeast with the heaviest amounts in central MO and southern IL. For the balance of this week, more is expected in eastern CO and western KS to KY and TN but only light and scattered for the ECB. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks showing well above normal temps and normal to below normal moisture for most of the nation.
September corn down to a new recent low last week at $4.74 and now making new highs, up to 5.57 ½ so far this morning with resistance next at $5.90. December corn looks similar with a new recent low last week at $4.81, new high for the month at $5.63 ¾ this morning and resistance next up around the $6 level. August soybeans up to a new high for the year at $15.18 ¼ overnight, just 1 tick shy of the December high, the contract high at $15.32 ¼ with support at $14.70 then $14.40. November soybeans a new high this morning at 14.28 ¾, a penny above the December high, contract high at $14.48 ¼ with support at $13.68 then $13.25. September KC wheat still very choppy, back above the midpoint of the 7-month long trading range from $7.33 to $9.02 with nearby test resistance at $8.89. September Chicago wheat up to new high for the month at $7.10 ½ with resistance next at $7.70 and support at $6.22. September MPLS wheat trying yet again to take out the long-term lower trend with a new recent high on Monday at $9.00 with resistance next at $9.10 ½ and support at $8.43. August soybean meal taking out the 4-month long lower trend, a new recent high this morning at $451.7, resistance next at $456 and support at $416.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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