Date: April 8th, 2019
KS and TX cash feedlot trade mostly at $124 live, down another $2 from the week previous, with a few dipping down to $121 live last week. NE trade was steady at $126 live and $204 to $206 dressed with IA trade as high as $128 live. Cattle futures pulled back some on Friday but still held gains for the week while all deferred hog contracts continue sharply higher. We have not seen any additional pork sales to China but the market is sure betting on it as July and August lean hog contracts topped the $101 level on Friday.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 04/05/2019
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week 233,200 92,000 2,000 327,200
Last Week 258,700 68,700 67,700 329,400
Year Ago 131,900 31,500 33,300 196,700
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 3.00 higher. There was good to very good demand for those steers and heifers under 700 lbs that are suitable for grazing. As the calendar turns to April, grass is expected to pop very soon if warmer temperatures can move into the Plains and the upper Midwest. Flint Hills calves haven’t been turned out yet, but ranchers are chomping at the bit to get to grass time. Slow grass growth at this time is due to the colder than normal and waterlogged soil conditions throughout the midsection of the country.
For the week, Friday March 29th to Friday April 5th, April Live Cattle +$.35, June -$1.35, April Feeder Cattle +$.90, August +$.47, April Lean Hogs +$1.65, June +$10.42. Boxed Beef, Choice +$.89 @ $226.93, Select +$1.39 @ $220.28.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 107,000 head, up 1,000 from the previous week but down 7,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 621,000 head, up 7,000 from the week previous and up 6,000 from a year ago.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 417,000 head, down 44,000 from the week previous and down 35,000 compared to a year ago. For the week, 2,458,000 head, down 46,000 from the week previous but up 125,000 from a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and higher on Select on moderate to good demand and offerings for a total of 132 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__226.93 +.19, +.89 for the week
Select Cutout__220.28 +1.92, +1.39 for the week
CME Feeder Index__144.01 +1.10
CME Lean Hog Index__78.53 +.27
Pork Carcass Cutout__81.84 -.38
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__60.00 +.62, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__77.08 -.18
National Wtd Avg Live Price__58.62 +1.32, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__75.79 -.69
April live cattle hit a new contract high at $130.45 back on March 21st but since has broken through the long term uptrend and hit a new recent low last week at $125.55. The next support area is down near $123.50. April feeders still trying to hold a higher trend with support at $143.50 and resistance up near $151. April lean hogs with a contract high at $81.75, resistance next near $84 from last summer then $92.82 from July 2017. June already above those values and will become the front month after the April contract expires on Friday. June hit a new contract high last Friday at $99.82, resistance next up near $110 from 2014.
Grain and oilseed futures were lower to end the week as still no trade deal confirmation or date set for the next summit between the U.S. and Chinese leadership. This was not enough to pull the weekly price change lower though for all expect MPLS wheat futures. Weather forecasts remain cool and wet which should cause the markets to add in some premium once we get past the supply and demand report on Tuesday. The commitment of trader’s report showed managed money, for the week through 4/2, -43k corn (net short -247k), +7k srw (net short -56k), -1k hrw (net short -50k), -23k beans (net short -74k), -355 meal (net short -12k), -19k oil (net short -27k).
For the week, Friday March 29th to Friday April 5th, May Corn +$.06, New Crop December +$.05 ¼, May Soybeans +$.14 ¾, New Crop November +$.13 ¾, May KC Wheat +$.01 ¼, New Crop July +$.00 ¼, May Chicago Wheat +$.10, New Crop July +$.06 ¼, May MPLS Wheat -$.32 ¼, New Crop September -$.20 ½, May Soybean Meal +$1.50/T, December +$2.60/T.
Overnight, grains were mixed with corn steady to 1 higher, soybeans 1 to 2 higher and wheat 1 to 4 lower.
South Korea remains active buying South American corn now with a number of Asian based grain importers looking to South America and Black Sea origins for corn and feed wheat over the U.S.
Analysts Estimates for USDA-WASDE Monthly Report Tuesday at 11AM
— US 18/19 corn ending stocks at 2.013 BBU, March report at 1.835 BBU.
— World 18/19 corn ending stocks at 312.5 MMT, 308.5 MMT in the March.
— US 18/19 soybean ending stocks at 913 MBU, March report at 900 MBU.
— World 18/19 soybean ending stocks at 108.5 MMT, 107.2 MMT in the March
— US 18/19 wheat ending stocks at 1.075 BBU, March report at 1.055 BBU.
— World 18/19 wheat ending stocks at 271.0 MMT, 270.5 MMT in the March.
— Brazil Corn production at 94.7 MMT, March report at 94.5 MMT. Brazil Soybean production at 116.0 MMT, that compares to the March WASDE report at 116.5 MMT.
— Argentina Corn production at 46.8 MMT, March report at 46.0 MMT. Argentina Soybean production at 55.5 MMT, compared to the March WASDE report at 55.0 MMT.
Heavy rains from Eastern KS into NE, IA and MN over the weekend and more in the forecast for this week with possibly heavy snow in some of those same areas. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing below normal temps for all and above normal precipitation for all except the Northern Plains and Great Lakes.
May corn with a new contact low to end March at $3.56, support next at $3.52 ½ (March contract low) and resistance up near $3.80. May soybeans still holding a lower trend since February with resistance at $9.12 and support at $8.83. May KC wheat with resistance up at $4.54, contract low at $4.18 ¼. May Chicago wheat with resistance up at $4.78, contract low at $4.27. May soybean meal still choppy with resistance at $316.50 and support at $303.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700