Date: July 3, 2023
Livestock futures were higher almost every day last week as corn crashed hard all week. Feeders the leader higher on Friday and for the week. The nearby or spot August contract finally able to take out the contract high from earlier this month and also set a new all-time spot high at $248.07. The previous all-time spot feeder high was hit in October 2014 at $245.20. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week held steady to $2 lower. In the South, majority of the trade reported at $178 to $179 live and in the North from $182 to $183 live and $290 dressed.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…June Live Cattle +$4, August +$6.40, August Feeders +$13.62, September +$13.12, July Lean Hogs +$4.37, August +$2.92. Choice Boxed Beef -$6.29 at $327.72 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.09 at $102.45.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 6/25/2023 – 7/1/2023
Receipts: Current Week 23,291 Last Week 22,242 Last Year 34,242
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 5.00-10.00 higher. Demand very good for feeder cattle following a COF report a week ago showing big placements for May. Thus we continue to pull cattle early. Steer and heifer calves mostly steady, except 400-500 lb. steers 5.00-15.00 higher. Demand moderate for calves with an increased supply of un-weaned calves.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 644,000 head, down 5,000 from the week previous but up 3,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 521.8 million pounds with year to date now -4.6% vs. last year and slaughter -3.4%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,332,000 head, down 40,000 compared to the week previous but up 48,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 496 million pounds last week with year to date remaining +0.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values last Friday lower on moderate demand with 98 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.33 @ 327.72, Select Cutout -3.55 @ 293.63
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 223.75, Lean Hog Index @ 93.92
Pork Carcass Cutout from Friday -.45 @ 102.45
August live cattle now the front month trading a $10 range in June from the contract high on June 7th at $178.10 down to the recent low on the 21st at $168.10. Nearby support just above $172 and upside targets above the contract high at $181.50 then the all-time spot high at $182.87. August feeders again a new contract and all-time spot high on Friday at $248.07, nearby support at the 20-day moving average at $237.80 and 2 open gaps below that until the recent low from June 21st clear down at $226.70. July lean hogs poking above $96 again last Friday but still unable to take out the June high at $96.30 with resistance after that at $96.90 and support at $90.80.
End of month and quarter, stir in some already volatile weather trading and then stoke the fire with a surprising acreage report from USDA…you end up with soybeans 70 to 80 cents higher, soybean oil locking limit higher, which means the entire soy complex will have expanded limits today, and corn crashing another 30 cents lower which has nearly wiped out the entire month-long rally in only 7 trading days! The expectations were for slightly higher corn acres and slightly lower soybeans acres compared to the March Intentions. Instead, USDA shocked us with soybeans acres slashed by 4 million and corn acres up 2 million. Rains still scattered but very welcome over some of the drier parts of the Corn Belt to end last week and over the weekend. 1-4” rains from NC KS across southern IA and northern MO then over most of IL, IN and OH. Daily trading limits today for soybeans at $1.60/BU, meal at $45/T and oil at $.06/lb.
The CFTC Commitment of Trader’s showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 6/27 selling a net 5.4k corn contracts (net long 52.8k but probably now net short through last Friday), buying 31.9k Chicago wheat (net short -52.1k), buying 6.4k KC wheat (net long 12.4k) and buying 22.5k contracts of soybeans (net long 99.4k).
Weekly closes in the grains… July Corn -$.76 ¼, September -$.96 ¼, December -$.93 ¼, July Soybeans +$.62 ¾, August +$.38, November +$.33 ¼, July KC Wheat -$.57 ¾, September -$.61 ¾, July Chicago Wheat -$.97, September -$.95 ½, July MPLS Wheat -$.62 ¾, September -$.56 ¾, July Soybean Meal +$8.5/T, December -$1/T.
Grains mostly higher overnight as the soy complex continues to lead the rally. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ steady to higher, and energies steady to higher with crude oil $.60/barrel higher. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 7 higher, soybeans 38 to 55 higher, and wheat 5 higher to 10 lower. South Korea purchased over 8 MBU of optional origin corn, most of which expected to come from South America or South Africa. The Financial Times is reporting the EU is considering to reconnect the Russian Ag Bank to the international SWIFT system.
This week’s rains forecasted to be the heaviest here over the Southern Plains and then into MO with 1-2” scattered rains for the WCB and less for the ECB. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps and above normal moisture across the majority of the major growing areas with above normal temps and below normal moisture out West and in the South.
Export inspections will be out later this morning and then updated crop progress and conditions later this afternoon. Markets will be closed overnight and on Tuesday for Independence Day with a hard open on Wednesday morning. All July grain contracts now in delivery meaning no daily limits on the front months.
September corn completely taking out the May/June rally with a new recent low overnight at $4.83 ¼ before reversing and finishing the overnight higher with the first line of resistance at $5.38. December corn also taking out the May low overnight, down to $4.88 ¾ with resistance around $5.40. August soybeans poking above the $15 level with resistance at $15.05 then $15.18 ½ and support around $13.60. November soybeans hitting a new recent high overnight but resistance still holding around the $14 level and support at $12.90. September KC wheat hanging near the midpoint of the 7-month long trading range from $7.33 to $9.02. September Chicago wheat sharply lower last week after taking out the long-term lower trend with a new recent high at $7.70 ¼ and support at $6.25. September MPLS wheat has support at $8.00 and resistance at $8.94 ½. August soybean meal very volatile this past month trading up to $438.90 two weeks ago, down to $389.50 for last week’s low and back to $433.70 for a high overnight.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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